Jets vs. Dolphins: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
In what has been the longest season in Rex Ryan's career by a long shot, the New York Jets are just one game away from finally getting this season over with.
It may be the last game of a lost season, but you can bet Ryan and the Jets would love to send out their coach with one more victory, especially against a division rival in the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins share a playoff-less January with the Jets, but they have an entirely different source of motivation than their AFC East counterparts.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
With owner Stephen Ross assuring that Joe Philbin will stay on as head coach in 2015, this final game gives these players one more chance to prove that sweeping changes are not needed within the roster. In a meaningless contest, Philbin and his staff are in full "evaluation" mode.
Here is how the Jets can find a way to pull off a minor upset to end their season—and likely the Rex Ryan era—on a positive note.
Capitalize on Strong Ground Game
The last time these two teams met, Ryan took plenty of heat for running the ball an obnoxious amount of times (49) in a game that was more resembling of a high school contest.
As much as the game was quite an eyesore, it is easy to forget how the plan almost worked. The undermanned Jets were beating a favored division rival for most of the game, so the Jets were clearly on to something when they devised this old-school game plan.
The Jets should not repeat their earlier game plan to a "T" and hand it off 50 times, but they should certainly build off their 277-yard performance if they want to come away with a win. The Jets did not obtain 277 yards by pure volume, either—they were effective running the ball even when the Dolphins knew it was coming, averaging 5.7 yards per play.
However, the Jets managed to lose a game after posting these staggering numbers in large part because they were unable to capitalize in the passing game. With the Dolphins using all of their resources to stop the run, the Jets simply refused to take a deep shot on a play-action pass.
In the most favorable of situations, the Jets refused to allow quarterback Geno Smith to take advantage of watered-down coverage in the back end.
This is a 2nd-and-3 situation inside Dolphins territory—an ideal time to take a deep shot to the end zone. Not only is the down and distance (and position on the field) favorable for such an attempt, but the Dolphins are also begging the Jets to throw the ball based on their alignment.
Miami is lined up in a Cover 1-man style of defense, with single coverage on the outside and one deep safety to help. The other safety is being used in run support.
What did the Jets do? Pound Chris Ivory ahead for a short gain and a pile of dust.
These are the situations running teams live for and strive to set up all game long. The Jets can go out and run for another 300 yards on Sunday, but if they don't capitalize in the passing game, they can expect the same result.
Take Away the Big Play
While the Jets' offensive game plan from their earlier meeting was flawed, Ryan's defense gave them more than enough chance to win—there is no point in fixing what isn't broken.
The Jets' kept the Dolphins' point total low by taking away big plays, specifically to Mike Wallace. With an overmatched secondary, the Jets gave up plenty of underneath routes, but they did not allow a pass completion for more than 25 yards. Despite going 25-for-35, quarterback Ryan Tannehill's per-pass average was a mere 6.7 yards.
The Jets simply sat back in highly conservative coverage concepts, doing everything they could to prevent drives from falling apart in a single play. As much as this must have destroyed the naturally aggressive Ryan's soul—his defenses are typically the antithesis of a "bend-don't-break" mentality—this was the only way his defense would have a chance in the secondary.
The Jets did not just line up in Cover 2 to give extra deep-safety help—their cornerbacks gave the Dolphins receivers plenty of respect. As seen here, the Jets cornerbacks are giving nearly 10 yards of cushion to all of them.
Essentially, the Jets are leaning on their defensive line to take care of the running game and generate a pass rush on their own rather than their secondary to hold up in "dangerous" coverages and for good reason. This is the area of the field where the Jets have the biggest matchup advantage by a long shot.
This season, the Dolphins have been about as bad protecting their quarterback as the Jets have been good at harassing the opposing passers:
| Dolphins O-Line | 178 | 50 | 41 | |
| Jets D-Line | 148 | 53 | 48 |
Given their immense talent on the defensive line and the struggles of the Dolphins' offensive line, this style of defense is a must if the Jets want to win.
Throw Out All the Stops
If this truly is Ryan's last game on the Jets' sideline, he may as well make it as fun and exciting as possible.
Every dark corner of the playbook must be dusted off and thrown in to the game-plan rotation. Whether it be Jeremy Kerley passing to Michael Vick, Geno Smith throwing a flea flicker, Percy Harvin taking a double-reverse, fake punts and field goals, onside kicks or even giving the Dolphins a taste of their own medicine with a fake spike—if Ryan is going to go down, he may as well go down swinging.
The Jets do have enough versatile players to pull off such absurd ways to move the football. Kerley once hit Clyde Gates for a big play back in 2012. Michael Vick can outrun most defensive backs, and Harvin is no stranger to end-arounds and double-reverses.
Ryan and the Jets would much rather win the game than try out a bunch of trick plays, but at this point, he may as well tap into the emergency reserves of outrageous plays.
Who knows—one of these may actually work and get the Jets over the top in what should be a tightly played contest.
The outcome of this game won't change the fate of anyone in the front office or coaching staff one way or another, but you can bet they would love to send out their beloved head coach with a hard-fought, entertaining win over a division rival.
Advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
