Will More NBA Players Gamble on Themselves in Free Agency?
Confidence.
Without it, those in the NBA are doomed to fail. Professional basketball players have to believe in themselves. They must think they're capable of being the best player on the court at any time—or at least the best in their specialized facet of the game. If they don't, they simply don't belong.
But that doesn't always translate to the free-agent market.
Many players are hesitant to gamble on themselves, as they'd prefer to enjoy financial security and not run the risk of suffering a major injury or a staggering decline in production. They sign lengthy contracts when they can, preferring that option to waiting and hoping for something even better.
However, that may be changing.
The 2014 offseason featured some rather unorthodox decisions, and all of them are paying off so far. A stellar success rate could be enough to trigger some more gambling down the road from other players, though obviously that's no guarantee for those who are already set in their risk-averse ways.
Using the Qualifying Offer
Greg Monroe had a chance to sign a longer deal with the Detroit Pistons, one that would have given him plenty of monetary security even if he'd be locked into playing for a team that didn't present him with a great fit. But he was so averse to doing so that he would have declined even a maximum contract offer, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt.
Instead, Monroe signed the seldom-used qualifying offer.
By doing so, he locked himself in with the Pistons for one season, but he picked up plenty of benefits at the same time. Monroe can't be traded without giving consent, and he'll become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, finally getting a chance to pick where he actually wants to play without fear of Detroit matching the offer.
But, as Zillgitt explains, this wasn't a move free from risk. It was very much a gamble: "There is some risk in signing a qualifying offer—Monroe could get hurt or have a down season. But Monroe, the No. 7 pick in the 2010 NBA draft, has missed just three games in his career, and new Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy will still have to utilize Monroe, even with center Andre Drummond."
A severe injury is still a possibility, but Monroe isn't letting any potential suitors forget about just how talented he is.
The 24-year-old big man is averaging 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, doing so while shooting 48.2 percent from the field. He's not playing as much as he has in the past—in fact, 29 minutes per game is the least time he's spent on the court since his rookie season out of Georgetown—but the gamble already looks as though it will be a successful one.
Now, it's important to note just how rare this is.
As Tom Ziller of SBNation.com explains, only 13 first-round picks in the last decade have gone down this route. None of them have been of Monroe's caliber, with Ben Gordon coming closest in 2009.
"Players—more accurately players' agents—have been threatening to sign the qualifying offer for ages. There's a reason no one takes those threats seriously," he wrote. "The QO is not an arrow in the players' quivers. It's a fake weapon."
Except Monroe isn't treating it as such. He took a risk, gambled on his ability and knack for staying healthy and—though it's admittedly quite early in the season—it appears as though it's paying off.
Nonetheless, Monroe is an exception. Even this potential risk-taking success might not influence future players in similar situations, as the qualifying offer is still primarily viewed as an empty threat. But the same can't be said about what Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler have done.
Turning Down Big Offers
Going into the 2014-15 season, Leonard was widely viewed as one of the league's best up-and-coming commodities. Fresh off winning Finals MVP against LeBron James and the Miami Heat, he was heralded as the future of the San Antonio Spurs, the player who would usher in the next era of San Antonio basketball.
The Spurs reacted accordingly.
Kind of.
"As Kawhi Leonard holds firm on his desire for a maximum contract," Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported this summer, "Extension talks with the San Antonio Spurs have failed to gather traction despite a looming Friday deadline, league sources told Yahoo Sports."
The Spurs wanted to extend Leonard, but they also wanted him to take that San Antonio discount, one that Tim Duncan and many other players in the organization's history have been keen to accept. Leonard wasn't having it, and he refused to sign anything less than a max deal.
But all the while, he remained confident he'd end up with the Spurs, per USA Today's Sam Amick:
"I was never upset about (the extension). I mean they explained to me what their deal is and why they didn't do it yet. That'll play out. I'm just here to play basketball and have fun and try to win another championship. If I think about that, then I'm not going to be the same player that I am and will be just out of it.
...
I don't think I'm going anywhere. I mean they love me here. I like the organization, and if it was up to me, I want to finish out with one team like a lot of great players have done, to stay with one organization their whole career and just be loyal to that. You never know. We'll see what happens next summer, but I'm pretty sure I'll be in a Spurs jersey for my whole life.
"
He's going to be correct.
Though a torn ligament in his right hand currently has him knocked out of action, Leonard was quite impressive during his first 22 appearances. He averaged 15.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting 45.4 percent from the field, playing elite defense and posting a 19.2 player efficiency rating, per Basketball-Reference.com.
How many players in the NBA have matched or exceeded those per-game numbers? Just two—Leonard and Paul Millsap of the Atlanta Hawks.
Leonard has continued to establish himself as a max player—not that he was far from doing that before the season began—and his hand injury isn't going to change that. As Dan Feldman wrote for NBC Sports after the forward underwent some testing, "Leonard, in a contract year, is on track for a max contract. Even if this injury is as severe as could reasonably be predicted, I doubt that changes."
It won't. But that still doesn't make Leonard's gamble as impressive as the one that Butler took.
Butler was an unestablished commodity heading into the season, a player full of upside but one who hadn't proved himself during what was supposed to be a breakout 2013-14 campaign. He still remained confident, turned down an extension and decided to bet on himself. Now, he's arguably even more of a lock for a max deal than Leonard.
Why? Improvement.
Just take a gander at the stark difference between Butler's current season and last year's numbers:
| 2013-14 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 39.7 | 28.3 | 52.2 | 13.5 | 0.131 |
| 2014-15 | 22.1 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 48.6 | 34.7 | 60.6 | 22.6 | 0.235 |
Is it any wonder the Chicago Bulls didn't offer the swingman a max deal this past summer? Even the most optimistic within the organization couldn't possibly have expected Butler to make a leap this large.
"It came down to me deciding that I want to bet on myself," the should-be All-Star texted to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski after he rejected Chicago's overtures and declined a four-year extension worth, according to Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver, at least $40 million. "It was about me believing that I put the work in this summer to become a better player with the hope that my improvement will give the Bulls a better chance to win a championship."
He's certainly a better player now. And, as an anonymous general manager told Sean Deveney of SportingNews.com, it's time to start thinking about max deals:
"If you think you have a legitimate shot at him, you would have to come out with a max offer. That's the only way you'd have a chance of prying him out of Chicago, and there are a few teams that would be willing to try, sort of like what Charlotte tried with (Gordon) Hayward last summer. (Utah matched the Hornets' max offer.) I think he stays in Chicago, but it is going to be expensive for them.
"
Expensive, but worth it.
Butler certainly took a gamble by turning down so much money, especially when he'd done little to prove he was capable of earning even more. He didn't have a Finals MVP to his name, unlike Leonard, and his resume was filled more with unrealized potential than anything else.
But it's sure worked out nicely thus far.
Still, there's one player who took an even bigger risk this past offseason. Butler would've received an extension even if his production had remained stagnant, but this member of the Philadelphia 76ers ran the risk of finding himself playing for modest contracts in the D-League or having to journey overseas to continue his professional basketball career.
Declining the Traditional Rookie Deal
K.J. McDaniels was drafted by the 76ers at No. 32 in the 2014 NBA draft, but he didn't take the money and contract normally bestowed upon second-round picks. Instead, he went for a more unorthodox route, as explained by Daniel Leroux of Mid-Level Exceptional in quite some detail.
The "Hinkie Special" that Leroux refers to in his piece is a creative contract the Sixers like to offer to their unproven players. It runs four years, and each season on the deal is fully unguaranteed with no date on which that changes. Essentially, general manager Sam Hinkie can cut any player with such a contract at any time, and there won't be any penalty levied upon either him or the franchise.
But McDaniels wasn't having that.
Instead, he took the rookie minimum ($507,000) and an unguaranteed one-year salary, allowing him to become a restricted free agent next summer, when he'll make significantly more money.
There isn't much precedent for this, and the closest comparison might be Wesley Matthews, who was only offered a one-year deal after he went undrafted and joined the Utah Jazz before signing a bigger deal that summer. Glenn Robinson III, fresh out of Michigan, opted for a similar route to McDaniels' with the Minnesota Timberwolves this summer, but he's been far less impressive than the young man from Clemson picked eight spots earlier.
Before the season, McDaniels' agent, Mark Bartelstein, explained to Wojnarowski why he and his client chose this route:
"The 76ers have a philosophy that they're adhering to, and we totally respect that, but it doesn't fit for K.J. and us. I just totally disagree with the idea of doing a four-year deal that includes a structure of two non-guaranteed years. We think K.J. is going to be a good player, and it came down to doing a one-year deal and letting the market determine his value.
There's no hard feelings. The Sixers' philosophy has worked for them. It just doesn't work for us.
"
Well, it's going to work out quite nicely now.
McDaniels' insane athleticism has helped him average 9.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.6 blocks per game, and he seems to have quite a bit of upside. He's even blocked shots so ferociously that he gave an innocent fan a concussion. He should be a strong candidate for an All-Rookie spot all year long, and if the Sixers aren't willing to pay him this offseason, someone certainly will.
In fact, CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie wrote the following about the shot-blocking phenom while ranking him in the top spot on his Dec. 1 rookie ladder:
"That bodes well for his future, which is very much in question given that he signed a one-year deal and will be a restricted free agent this offseason. He's making himself a ton of money right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a yearly average around $6-7 million in July. The increased cap along with his perceived upside as a 22-year-old free agent will likely make him one of the most sought-after players on the market.
"
As is the case with all four of these featured players, the holiday season is too soon for guaranteeing successful gambles. It's a bit like getting to 20 in a hand of blackjack when the dealer has a five showing. There's a great chance you're going to win the hand, but there's still a chance of a loss. In the case of these four players, a loss would come in the form of a major injury or a sharp decline in production.
But thus far, things are looking great.
Monroe is surely going to get a big deal outside the Motor City. Butler and Leonard should be in line for max extensions with the Bulls and Spurs, respectively. McDaniels will make far more money than he did this year and could very well guarantee his financial security with a multiyear deal that pays him more than $5 million annually.
It's a far higher success rate than we've seen in the past, and there are also more players gambling on themselves than during any years in recent NBA history. While it's hard to be definitive, as each situation is unique, this could very well be enough impetus to steer more players in compromised or different scenarios down a similar path.
Eventually the on-court confidence might carry over to the offseason.
