Pro Bowl Stocking Stuffers: Save Room for Russell Wilson, Travis Kelce and More
The Pro Bowl announcements are just hours away, meaning that we will soon confirm that J.J. Watt is more popular than Santa Claus, lists of "snubbed" players will feature enough names to double the population of Glendale, Arizona, and the state of Ohio's insane over-importance to the American electoral process will be evident yet again.
For those of you who cannot keep track of such things, Pro Bowl voting has three branches, like the federal government:
• Fan balloting, which closed on Saturday, provides a snapshot of the opinions of people like my nephew, who have both the time and inclination to spam-click Rob Gronkowski's name over and over again on a November afternoon like a lab rat seeking an extra dose of methamphetamine. If you voted once like a normal person, you wasted your time, just like in all elections.
TOP NEWS
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Colts Release Kenny Moore
Projecting Every NFL Team's Starting Lineup 🔮
Rookie WRs Who Will Outplay Their Draft Value 📈
• Player balloting gives players the chance to vote for themselves, their buddies and opponents who are tough enough to pose a threat but not tough enough to create a grudge. The amount of "Richard Sherman is just some ordinary guy" quotes you hear from players each week indicates just how unbiased and jealousy-free the player vote is.
• Coach balloting takes place when the head coach hands a ballot to his secretary, who hands it to one of the quality control assistants, who fills in some names while splicing together every Tennessee Titans 3rd-and-long play of the last four months. Rumor has it that Bill Belichick just photocopies an old ballot, which is why there are still mysterious votes for Tedy Bruschi each year (although that could also be my nephew).
The NFL then tabulates the results, burns them in a gourmet pizza oven and selects whomever it wants.
Some Browns fans have clearly tried to glitch the Pro Bowl system by "stuffing the ballot box" (via Fox Sports Ohio) this season. Browns led or were suspiciously close to the top of the rankings at many positions as polls closed, a sign of a dedicated voting bloc spamming merrily away in the hope of winning an all-expenses-paid business vacation to Arizona for Johnson Bademosi. Joe Haden ranked first among cornerbacks at one point, Buster Skrine fourth; it was the football equivalent of Walter Mondale winning Minnesota.
Disproportionate influence over elections is an Ohio tradition dating back to baseball's 1957 All-Star Game (all Cincinnati Redlegs—now, Reds—thanks to pre-printed newspaper ballots) and continuing through every presidential election of the last century. But rest assured that the NFL will have none of it. The Fox Sports Ohio report notes that 13 of the leading 38 fan vote-getters did not make the team last year. The marginalization of the fan vote is a reminder that you will want to honor whomever the NFL tells you to want to honor.
That said, ballot-box shenanigans and heavy-handed NFL editing could skew the selections away from some very deserving candidates. I spent weeks debating my opinions passionately in real life and on social networks, provoking some bitter arguments, but then I forgot to vote. Again, just like every other election ever.
But I still have a right to preemptively complain. Here is a wish list of Pro Bowl stocking stuffers, players who deserve the honor but may be squeezed out for a variety of reasons. These are not oddball candidates, but rather well-known veterans and up-and-comers who didn't produce big stats or Cleveland buzz to match their on-field value.
If none of these excellent players survive the electoral process, then just change the headline to All Snubbed Team and remind me to vote a few times next year!
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
Wilson is a worthy MVP candidate, yet there's a chance that he won't even make the Pro Bowl. He ranked ninth in fan balloting when the NFL provided a snapshot in mid-November, behind many of the usual suspects, as well as interlopers like Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers. He is ranked just 17th in the NFL in passing yards and tied for 14th in passing touchdowns, so any coach's assistant or player scanning the stat sheet for candidates is likely to overlook him. And Pro Bowl perceptions are usually shaped midseason, which is why Rivers and Luck remained high in the fan poll. They were flying high while Wilson was running for his life in late October, when thousands of votes were being cast.
The key stats for Wilson are 842 rushing yards (15th in NFL, most by a quarterback by a mile), a 1.4 percent interception rate (tied for fourth in the NFL) and zero fumbles lost despite nonstop scrambling and sacks. The evidence for Wilson's Pro Bowl worthiness is all over the game film. Most quarterbacks would be on the injured reserve playing behind the Seahawks offensive line. If they managed to survive, they would be hard-pressed to find 20 touchdowns among the Seahawks receiving corps.
With six interceptions in his last four games and a knack for getting strip-sacked, Luck's Pro Bowl privileges are rescinded. Same with Rivers, whose high-efficiency magic wore off in mid-October. Drew Brees, who also ranked ahead of Wilson in the fan poll (and the yardage/touchdown lists of course), has my Hall of Fame vote but not my 2015 Pro Bowl vote. Wilson does everything a great quarterback can be asked to do except rack up meaningless 300-yard games, and his team would be the Rams without him. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Wilson: that sounds like two squads' worth of Pro Bowl quarterbacks to me.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants
Beckham will win Rookie of the Year, as well as an ESPY, a Cartoon Network Hall of Game award and possibly a Daytime Emmy award for his one-handed grab. He will soon endorse everything from sandwiches to doggie heartworm medicine. But Beckham ranks 18th in receptions and 13th in yards, while his late start kept him out of the top 10 in fan balloting at wide receiver. There's a good chance that Beckham will be compartmentalized as a "star rookie" instead of a star, a highlight generator instead of one of the league's most important offensive weapons, and kept off the Pro Bowl rosters.
Beckham has caught 72.4 percent of passes targeting him. According to Football Outsiders (current through Week 15), only Kenny Stills of the Saints had a higher Catch Rate among receivers who were targeted 50-plus times, and Stills barely squeaked into qualification. Beckham catches a higher percentage of passes thrown to him than Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, even though Eli Manning lacks Aaron Rodgers' uncanny accuracy. Nelson and Cobb get to draw coverage from each other, as do Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson in Detroit. Beckham is lucky that his fellow receivers can jump in and save him from being hurt or ejected during a sideline brawl.
The wide receiver field is crowded with sure-fire selections like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, plus players like Tate who have had undeniable impact on the playoff race. When the coaching assistants and players made their choices, here's hoping they at least considered Beckham over a talented second option like Cobb or T.Y. Hilton, who produced three more receptions and four fewer touchdowns in an extra month of action.
The NFL certainly wants the Big Apple's brightest new star and his mind-blowing highlight reel to feature prominently in the goofy "fantasy draft" program and game telecast, so Beckham will at least be a first alternate as soon as someone reaches the Super Bowl or chips a fingernail. But he deserves a real nomination.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
The Chiefs have generated just 40 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season, tied for 26th in the NFL. Kelce is responsible for 13 of those receptions; Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs' hypothetical go-to receiver, has nine; and most of the rest are screen-and-run plays. Kelce leads the Chiefs in receptions and yards, is tied with Jamaal Charles with a team-leading five touchdown receptions and also leads the team in yards per catch (13.0) among players with 20-plus catches.
Football Outsiders ranks Kelce second to Rob Gronkowski among tight ends in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), thanks to a whopping 78 percent Catch Rate (tops among tight ends with 50-plus targets) and 15 first-down receptions on third downs. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) gives Kelce a solid grade as a pass protector, and it's tough to be both your team's leading receiver and the first line of defense against an outside blitz.
The knock on Kelce, besides his ordinary-at-first-glance numbers, is his three lost fumbles. DeMarco Murray fumbles now and then, too; no one is keeping him off the Pro Bowl rosters. Kelce is more vital to his team's success than any tight end other than Rob Gronkowski this year. (Greg Olsen also qualifies, if you count going 6-8-1 in a terrible division "success.") He should be rewarded for preventing the Chiefs passing game from deteriorating into a series of stretched-out handoffs.
Bruce Miller, FB, 49ers
The fan balloting for fullback is like the freshman balloting for student council president, or most American political elections: It's just a big popularity contest. John Kuhn led the fan ballot this year, because it is fun to shout Kuuuuuuuuuuuuuhn every time he touches the ball, and because even Browns fans couldn't bring themselves to seriously spam-vote for Ray Agnew, who plays about 15 snaps per game (PFF).
Marcel Reece will probably be the second fullback, and he is a likeable, fun-to-watch player who has been the Raiders' lone quasi-recognizable star-like substance for years. Never mind that he has not really done much this season.
Miller deserves consideration because he actually plays fullback, which has never been a requirement for selection as a Pro Bowl fullback (see Mike Alstott). Miller is on the field as a lead blocker of some sort for 30 to 50 offensive snaps per game (PFF) as opposed to most of his peers, who see about as much offensive action as the fourth wide receiver. The 49ers offense is at its best in the I-formation or some power Pistol set, and Miller has been effective as a lead blocker, pass protector and outlet receiver with 15 catches at 11.5 yards per catch.
The Ravens' Kyle Juszczyk would also be a solid choice: He's a true fullback who gets legitimate playing time, lead blocks well and has 19 catches on his resume. Unfortunately, no one can chant his name without needing the Heimlich maneuver.
Maurkice Pouncey, C, Steelers
Travis Frederick of the Cowboys and Nick Mangold of the Jets are shoo-ins for two of the center spots. Mangold is walking around on crutches after an injury in the Patriots game, but he expects to return for the finale and should certainly be healthy enough to lie in the hot Arizona sun after some walk-throughs. Packers center Corey Linsley is a worthy choice for the third spot, but there is no clear-cut fourth choice. Seattle's Max Unger has been hurt most of the year; Kansas City's Rodney Hudson is hard to evaluate when opponents are slicing past him to attack the Chiefs guards.
Pouncey is an old Pro Bowl standby, but he is easy to forget about after he missed 2013 due to ACL surgery. He has been a stabilizing force for a playoff-caliber offense and a huge reason for Le'Veon Bell's success. He is like the Frederick of the Cowboys: a linchpin who balanced an offense and helped pull a storied franchise out of the doldrums.
Centers like Pouncey and Mangold usually acquire "Pro Bowler for Life" reputations, even if they don't earn them. Pouncey may have surrendered his crown when he got hurt last year, but he has done plenty to win it back this year.
Calais Campbell, DE, Cardinals
Campbell has been magnificent this year, but there may not be room for him in the defensive end section. Start counting the gimmies—J.J. Watt, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, probably Sheldon Richardson—and you rapidly run out of room for a veteran with seven sacks, 53 total tackles, 14 tackles for a loss and a critical role on a complex defense that operates with no margin of error each week.
It's time to make room for Campbell, a seven-year vet who has never reached the Pro Bowl. Think of Campbell as the Russell Wilson of defense: a guy who does not rack up eye-popping totals but does a hundred little things (plus some very big things) to guide his team to the playoffs.
DeAndre Levy, LB, Lions
It's hard for a coverage-style outside linebacker to get attention in a league full of pass-rushers. Justin Houston and Von Miller earn lots of accolades and Pro Bowl votes with their high sack totals, and there is no denying their impact. But if you record 10 tackles and defend two passes in a game, you are likely to be overlooked in favor of the guy who recorded one titanic sack, even though your contribution might well have been greater.
Levy had a 10-tackle, two-breakup game in the Lions' 19-7 win over the Packers in Week 3. He also recorded two sacks against the Buccaneers. The versatility that makes him so valuable for the Lions also makes him hard to categorize when assembling a Pro Bowl roster. Per the Football Outsiders internal database, Levy ranked second among the NFL linebackers in Defeats (turnovers, stuffs, third-down stops and other defensive heroics) through 14 games. Lavonte David led linebackers with 33 to Levy's 31, but David (a) will get serious Pro Bowl consideration, and (b) plays for a defense that is on the field a heck of a lot more than the Lions. Houston and Miller had just 24 and 20 Defeats, respectively.
The Lions defense has been one of the major stories of the 2014 season. It should be represented by someone besides old standby Ndamukong Suh. Levy has been the heart and soul of the team's defensive reboot.
Desmond Trufant, CB, Falcons
Playing cornerback for the Falcons is like cleaning up Bourbon Street on Ash Wednesday: messy, thankless and practically futile. Trufant could easily be lumped among his inexperienced, bumbling, contact-averse Falcons peers. Look more carefully, though, and you see a budding superstar cornerback making the most of a bad situation.
The Falcons surrender 291.1 passing yards per game, the worst figure in the NFL. Most statistical analysis ranks their defense at or near the bottom of the league. But while Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons dead last at stopping the pass, the team ranks 11th at shutting down opponents' No. 1 receivers. Trufant has had a few rough games (Antonio Brown took him to school), but he has also racked up three interceptions, including a big one on Sunday against the Saints, and 15 passes defensed. He has done a great job for a cornerback coping with opposing quarterbacks who have all day to throw and three or four other open receivers to choose from.
Brent Grimes and Perrish Cox may win Pro Bowl berths over Trufant because of their high interception totals, reputations and non-embarrassing defensive teammates. Trufant was better this year. On the downside, he will be unavailable for the game (unlike Cox or Grimes) if the Falcons reach the Super Bowl. Try not to think about that.
Graham Gano, K, Panthers
I don't care if Adam Vinatieri is 28-of-28 on field goals this year or if Dan Carpenter kept the Bills alive in the playoff race until Sunday afternoon with the help of six 50-plus-yard attempts. OK, maybe I care a little about those accomplishments. But field goals are just half of a kicker's job. Kickoffs matter too, and nobody kicks off like Gano.
Gano has kicked off just 72 times (PFF), because the Panthers don't score many points. He has recorded 57 touchbacks (PFF), leading the league with a 79.2 percent touchback rating. Opponents have returned just 15 kickoffs against the Panthers all year. For a team that has struggled to accomplish anything, knowing that each score will be followed by an opponent's drive that starts at the 20-yard line is comforting.
Vinatieri, Carpenter and several of the other top field-goal specialists don't even kick off anymore. They let punters or specialists handle the chore. Let's find a spot on the Pro Bowl roster for a truly versatile kicking weapon: Stephen Gostkowski can kick for one squad, Gano the other.
Cedric Peerman, Special Teamer, Bengals
Peerman leads the league with 16 special-teams tackles, according to NFL GSIS (subscription required). The Bengals allow just 5.2 yards per punt return, making their punting game a secret weapon in their never-ending quest to win a playoff game. Peerman is the perfect choice for a special teams Pro Bowl berth. He's a career specialist who plays vital roles on most of the kicking units. Just try not to think about that fumbled fake punt in Week 14.
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")