Predicting Detroit Lions' Biggest Moves This Offseason

The 2014 season hasn't wrapped yet, but head coach Jim Caldwell doesn't control us, so we can look forward to the offseason to predict the biggest moves the Detroit Lions will make.

Spotrac.com has the Lions with about $15.5 million in cap space based on a projection of $138 million salary cap. It's possible that number goes up a few million, but none of the following should be reliant on that.

The Lions usually don't splurge on outside talent. If there's a glaring need, general manager Martin Mayhew might pull the trigger, but this team has already won 11 games, so little tweaks and player retention should be the priorities.

Thus, let's focus on the parts that have made this franchise successful this season, as they'll likely be the key to continuing a new brand of Lions football.

Center Stefen Wisniewski

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

Let's dispense with the obvious—Dominic Raiola is gone.

While some will debate whether you want such an ill-reputed character in your locker room, it's fairly easy to say that you don't want his caliber of player protecting your quarterback. He's simply not good at it anymore.

Pro Football Focus' extensive grading system checks him in at minus-17.7 (subscription required), which is good enough to place 37th out of the 40 qualifying centers.

Rookie Travis Swanson was drafted last May in the third round with an eye toward replacing Raiola. We'll learn a lot about that possibility this weekend since Raiola has been suspended for the Green Bay game.

However, Swanson struggled at his college position in the preseason. It could have been an adjustment to the pros, but he played somewhat better at guard during the regular season against stiffer competition.

If Detroit projects him as a guard, the Lions will likely turn to a veteran to man the middle, and Stefen Wisniewski would fit the bill. The former second-rounder is coming off a down year compared to his past two. Yet at only 25, there's plenty of reason to believe he can recapture his 2012-13 form, when he graded out much higher than his current 1.8.

And that down year could bring in the type of bargain price that Detroit wants to keep the core of this group intact.

Other options could be A.Q. Shipley from Indianapolis, Rodney Hudson from Kansas City or Brian De La Puente. However, Shipley is a restricted free agent, and the later two could price themselves out of Detroit's budget.

Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin

Uncredited/Associated Press

You didn't think it would get this scary this fast, did you?

The rumors of interest in Teryl Austin for a head-coaching gig aren't surprising. Neither is the fact that the interest is reciprocated, as Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com illustrated:

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The 49-year-old Austin said he hasn’t thought about how he would handle interviews, but that he would go on them if a team expressed interest in talking to him. He wouldn’t be concerned with how seriously a team might be considering him from the get-go because of what happened with Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh when he was hired.

"

He has molded many of the same pieces that gave up 23.5 points per game last season into the league's second-stingiest unit (16.8 PPG). Plus, the Lions have eight more sacks with one game to go, ranking sixth in the league as opposed to 28th in 2013.

At a minimum, the Rooney Rule, which requires a team with a head-coaching vacancy to interview at least one minority candidate, should help Austin get in front of someone with hiring authority. Yet it's much more likely he receives interest from multiple teams due to his masterful performance thus far, especially with in-game adjustments.

Could you imagine him at the head of a team with as much talent as the San Francisco 49ers?

It's extremely difficult to project where coaching candidates will land this early in the process. It could be my affinity for wanting to cover the way he coaches defense for another year, but teams will probably need to see one more year of production before handing over the reins to their franchise.

Cornerback Rashean Mathis

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Darius Slay has been the breakout surprise of the 2014 defense (sorry, George Johnson), yet he isn't the best cornerback in his own secondary.

Of course, that point is debatable, but per PFF's grading system, Rashean Mathis comes in one spot higher. His 8.1 grade ranks 12th overall in the league.

Mathis' advanced age (he'll be 35 next August) will be a factor, as it was in the deliberation process this year. The time is coming, probably sooner rather than later, when Mathis won't be able to perform at such a high level.

However, he's only given up four touchdowns this year against three passes defensed while grabbing a pick for an allowed passer rating of 85.2. That's very much in line with 2013's performance when he gave up three touchdowns while defending 10 passes for an 83.9 rating.

It's incredibly unlikely that some other team is going to offer Mathis significantly more money or years than Detroit would, and the elder defensive back is a valued mentor (paid archive) inside the locker room.

The minimal investment required to at least bring Mathis to training camp shouldn't cause the front office a moment's hesitation. Mathis will be back.

Defensive Tackle Nick Fairley

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

As Bill Cobbs' character, Dell Paxton, tells us in That Thing You Do!, there "[a]in't no way to keep a band together. Bands come and go. You got to keep on playin', no matter with who."

That's been the mantra all season for a defense that currently sits at No. 2 in yards and points allowed. It'll be the case next year as well because Detroit isn't going to pour two large contracts into the defensive tackle position.

Fairley has responded well since Detroit declined to pick up his fifth-year option. He hired a personal chef to help him keep his weight down. He also never publicly disparaged the franchise.

And he currently sits as the 19th-highest-rated defensive tackle with 17 quarterback hurries despite missing roughly half the season. That would put him on pace with Ndamukong Suh's 35 hurries.

However, trust is a major part of a contract. And just like a draft pick, value must be commiserate with the trust as well as the talent.

The value that Fairley can probably get on the market of multiple years with a high annual salary won't be worth it to Detroit. While the former Auburn Tiger has responded well to pressure, he has a long history of coasting when the heat is off, making it difficult to pay him when there's a proven player ready to break the bank.

Lastly, not only could the Lions look to the draft, but guys like Stephen Paea or Jared Odrick could be signed for a similar price.

Defensive Tackle Ndamukong Suh

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

It was always coming down to this. The Lions (hopefully) are over a month away from worrying about who's a free agent and who wants to come back, but the story of this offseason will begin and end with Ndamukong Suh. 

Heck, it was the story of last offseason. It's even been the story of this season. Everything he does or doesn't do or say has been dissected for a meaning that isn't there.

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Suh says he's looking forward to playing against Kyle Long next year. READ THE TEA LEAVES EVERYONE, HE'S COMING BACK.

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) December 21, 2014"

Obviously, Justin Rogers is having a bit of fun, but Suh will be the key to the offseason, as he has been to a defense that has driven the team to 11 wins. 

The stats back up Suh's assumed desire to be the highest-paid defensive player in the league. He has 8.5 sacks to go along with 27 hurries and nine hits, which ranks him a 10th of a point behind Gerald McCoy as the highest-graded defensive tackle. 

It's going to take a lot of money guaranteed over probably seven years. However, Suh can be trusted to stay motivated and provide the requisite value necessary for such a large investment.

I'm calling it now. Suh will be wearing Honolulu Blue next year.

All advanced stats, grades and positional rankings are courtesy of Pro Football Focus and require a subscription. 

Brandon Alisoglu is a Detroit Lions Featured Columnist who has written about the Lions on multiple sites. He also co-hosts a Lions-centric podcast, Lions Central Radio. Yell at him on Twitter about how wrong he is @BrandonAlisoglu.