Complete 2014-15 SEC NCAA Basketball Primer Heading into Conference Play
Many would agree that Kentucky’s ascent to the top of the SEC is a foregone conclusion.
The Wildcats are the best, deepest team in the country. If you’re really one to split hairs, Kentucky probably has two of the best teams in college basketball in its own locker room.
It’d be interesting to be a fly on the wall for a video session with opposing coaches to see just how they spin to their players how to defeat Kentucky. It could also be a lesson in dark humor.
These games, as you know, aren’t played on paper. After all, Kentucky has escaped a few scares already, like Columbia coming to Lexington and leading at the half.
If I were drawing up odds for Kentucky to win the SEC, they would be 1-9 on the morning line. As for the others, these 13 teams will get their crack at Kentucky and their own shots at the Big Dance.
Let’s see what’s shaking as SEC conference play commences.
Nonconference Records
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Kentucky: 13-0
Arkansas: 11-2
LSU: 11-2
Alabama: 10-3
Vanderbilt: 10-3
Georgia: 9-3
South Carolina: 9-3
Texas A&M: 9-3
Ole Miss: 9-4
Tennessee: 8-4
Auburn: 8-5
Florida: 7-6
Mississippi State: 7-6
Missouri: 6-7
Biggest Lessons Learned from Nonconference Play
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Kentucky’s Platoon System Works
How did Kentucky coach John Calipari sell his McDonald’s All-Americans on the idea that playing fewer minutes and registering lower numbers would be worth their 5-star talents? However he did it, this platoon system he has in place has worked.
Kentucky is 13-0, and its players don’t have as many minutes on their legs as some other teams do.
“You don't get the numbers you want or anything like that, but it makes the team better, keeps you fresh and wears the other team out," Andrew Harrison told Keith Taylor of the Associated Press. "As long as we're winning, it's worth it.”
Only two players—Harrison and Willie Cauley-Stein—average over 10 points per game, and only one player (Cauley-Stein) is averaging 24 minutes per game.
They only thing scarier than talent is fresh talent.
The SEC is Weak
This could be tantamount to Kramer calling Ukraine weak in a game of Risk, but when you examine the conference, it is weak, and certainly down.
Kentucky is the only team of 14 that is in the Top 25. Then, if you’re to believe the grand poobah of basketball analytics, Ken Pomeroy, Florida (7-6) is the only other SEC team ranked in the Top 25. Florida ranks 23rd on KenPom.com. South Carolina comes in next at 28.
So, yes: weak, down, you name it, the SEC is Kentucky’s all-you-can-eat buffet this season.
South Carolina is Sneaky Good
According to KenPom.com, South Carolina is the third-highest-rated SEC team behind Kentucky and Florida, and it gets its test against Florida in it SEC opener on Jan. 7.
The Gamecocks knocked off ninth-ranked Iowa State in their final nonconference game, effectively giving them the confidence they need to charge through the SEC.
Kyle Ringo of Yahoo Sports wrote:
"[Head coach Frank] Martin still needs to get more out of his big men going forward and his team will certainly be tested in the paint as it gets into conference play in the coming weeks, but beating a top-10 Iowa State team proves South Carolina is capable of knocking off some of the conference opponents that have bullied it in recent seasons.
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If Florida doesn’t get its act together, the battle for second place in the SEC could go through South Carolina.
Top Storylines to Watch
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Can Kentucky Run the Table?
If this question feels tired now, just wait until February and early March.
The answer to the question is yes, it can run the table, but will it? If the pressure of winning 40 games were on five or six players, that answer may split a focus group in half. Since the weight of that pressure is spread across 10 or 11 players, it seems all the more plausible that Kentucky can do it.
Patrick Leary of AOL Sports wrote:
"The key for Kentucky is focus. Two wins that jump out… are ones against Buffalo and Columbia. In both games, the Wildcats started sluggishly and trailed at halftime. That led to second-half scrambles where victories were achieved rather comfortably. Still, for Kentucky's smallest win in a schedule that includes Kansas, Texas and North Carolina to be against an Ivy League doormat reveals perhaps its most glaring weakness: the players don't play as hard in non-spotlight games.
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That will change now. Soon, every game will be a spotlight game as the season draws closer to March.
Is Florida Really this Bad?
Florida isn’t really 7-6, is it?
The Gators just dropped their second straight game, this to middling UConn by four points. This came after losing to Florida State on an errant self tip-in that gave the Seminoles a two-point win.
When Florida loses, it has been by an average of 4.33 points per game. This included a six-point loss to No. 11 Kansas when Florida had, at one point, an 18-point lead.
Despite its record, Florida is the 13th-rated defense and is 23rd overall according to KenPom.com. The record doesn’t tell the entire story.
Once Florida learns how to close out games, they will find themselves in the Top 25 by season’s end.
Who Can Threaten Kentucky?
Once (if?) Florida gets its act together, it will certainly give Kentucky two of its harder games in the conference, but who else?
South Carolina looks formidable. After its upset win over No. 9 Iowa State, the Gamecocks could be taking that next step.
Then there’s Arkansas. Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post wrote:
"The SEC is in shambles, with no other team other than Kentucky landing in the Top 25. The most stealth threat in the conference could come from the Razorbacks, an opponent mundane enough to escape the Wildcats’ focus and unique enough to challenge. They’re wickedly athletic, play at breakneck pace and have shot 41 percent on 3-pointers.
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Arkansas is ninth in the country in points per game and first in assists per game. It also boasts a nice win over SMU.
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Rivalry Games and Can't-Miss Matchups
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Florida at Kentucky, March 7
Kentucky should be 30-0, and Florida very well could be looking for revenge after a potential home loss to the Wildcats back on Feb. 7.
Kentucky is as good as advertised (maybe better), and Florida will find its form. It may not be Elite Eight form, but form nonetheless.
Arkansas at Kentucky, Feb. 28
Arkansas is one of the more talented teams in the league, which isn’t saying much this year. Still, Arkansas travels to Lexington in its only meeting with the Wildcats.
By this time, the undefeated pressure will be high, and Arkansas could be in a position to play spoiler.
Kentucky at LSU, Feb. 10
LSU is a strong club, and it, unlike Arkansas, gets to host Kentucky. The Wildcats will have played Florida just three days prior in Gainesville. Depending on how that game shakes out, Kentucky could be vulnerable to Jordan Mickey and Co.
Auburn at Alabama, Feb. 17
Since every story of interest swirls around Kentucky, let’s take a look at the Iron Bowl of Basketball.
I guess this is a thing, but with Alabama being a halfway decent team with Levi Randolph, and Bruce Pearl coaching in his first year on the Tigers bench, their games will be, at the very least, interesting down there in the Heart of Dixie.
Freshmen to Watch
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Marcus Stroman, South Carolina
After its impressive win over No. 9 Iowa State, South Carolina could be the surprise team of the SEC. We’re not talking beat-Kentucky-surprising, but surprising nonetheless.
Much of that deals with Marcus Stroman handling the point. He’s averaged 4.3 assists per game, 4.0 rebounds per game and just over 5.0 points per game.
When Gamecocks.com asked him to describe his game, Stroman said, “Passer, because I love to get my teammates involved in the game; defender, because I love playing defense; and lastly, a leader, because I'm a point guard and I have to be vocal on the court.”
Elbert Robinson, LSU
No more Sourpatch Kids for this giant freshman. Robinson once tipped the scales at 300 pounds, but when LSU head coach Charlie Leonard got a hold of him, Robinson cut 40 pounds off his frame.
His numbers aren’t impressive so far given that his minutes have been limited with Jordan Mickey, a sophomore, averaging a double-double for the Tigers.
But if Robinson progresses and then anchors the frontcourt with 2015-16 newcomers Ben Simmons and Antonio Blakeney, the balance of power in the SEC may shift down the Mississippi River from Kentucky to Louisiana.
Karl Towns, Kentucky
Towns is as good as advertised. He and Willie Cauley-Stein are a set of twin towers that you rarely see in college basketball.
Towns told Kyle Tucker of The Courier-Journal:
"This is a blast. I' having a blast every time I'm on the court. But, you know, we're also very competitive. We have to have that mentality if we want to go far. I came in really focused, came in with a killer mentality, just tried to do stuff differently. I just tried to grow up, I guess you could say. Just didn't want to be a freshman no more.
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Towns and Cauley-Stein average a combined 4.1 blocks per game, with Towns leading the team with an average of 2.4 blocks in just 19.5 minutes per game.
Top SEC Player of the Year Candidates
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Jordan Mickey, LSU
Jordan Mickey is having an excellent season manning LSU’s frontcourt. The 6’8” sophomore is averaging a double-double with 16.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game while shooting 53 percent from the field. He’s also blocking 3.6 shots per game.
Rob Dauster of College Basketball Talk wrote, “Mickey put up huge numbers as a freshman, but it didn’t get as much attention nationally due to LSU’s disappointing finish to the season.”
If his play keeps up, he could lead his team straight into the NCAA tournament.
Jarvis Summers, Ole Miss
Jarvis Summers has averaged 12.2 points and 3.5 assists per game for the Rebels. His shooting, however, hasn’t lit Oxford up: just 37 percent from the field and 28 percent from three.
But there’s still time. Summers headed up many preseason SEC Player of the Year lists and could still prove to be better than he has been.
"Summers will be the unquestioned leader in the locker room of an experienced Ole Miss team looking to win now. The senior guard is an efficient scorer who can also create for others, and if he can lead the Rebels back to the NCAA Tournament he'll be in the mix for this award.
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Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
Even with fractured minutes due to John Calipari’s deployment of the platoon system, Cauley-Stein is the leader and stabilizing force of these Wildcats.
He's averaging 10.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game in 24 minutes a night. He’s shooting .607 from the field to boot. He also leads his team in steals with 24.
"I wouldn't say I'm pleased, but I can see improvement in what I'm doing," Cauley-Stein told The Courier-Journal. "I can that what I'm doing is starting to work, so whatever I'm doing, just keep on doing it."
Should Kentucky roll through the SEC unbeaten, Cauley-Stein will be the winner of this award.
Prediciting the 2014-15 SEC Awards
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Freshman of the Year: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
Towns is a beast down low. Pairing up with a leader like Willie Cauley-Stein in the low block has done nothing but shine light on how talented Towns is.
He’s leading the team in blocks with 2.4 per game and rebounds with 6.8.
Cauley-Stein is a big reason why Towns is thriving, but take nothing away from this freshman: He’s as good as they come.
Coach of the Year: John Calipari, Kentucky
Calipari, with his uncanny ability to ferry the best mercenary talent in the country, will finish the season undefeated. He’s doing it with an unorthodox platoon system that won’t rewrite how coaches fill out lineups but might rewrite how he cards lineups so long as he keeps hoarding 5-star recruits.
If he wins, it will be his third time winning SEC Coach of the Year. He may even win National Coach of the Year.
Player of the Year: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
Cauley-Stein heads the list of the Kentucky awards brigade.
His numbers in limited action have been remarkable. If it weren’t for the platoon system, this 7-footer would be in the discussion for National Player of the Year.
Playing only 24 minutes per game means his stats could be as much as 50 percent higher. He’s the best player on a team that will likely go undefeated.
SEC Favorite and Dark Horse
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Favorite: Kentucky
Not much can be added on the subject of Kentucky being the favorite.
It’s just like ESPN’s Dana O’Neil said:
"What's bigger than an overwhelming pick? Colossal? Otherworldly? So much better than everyone else it's obscenely unfair? OK, let's go with that to describe Kentucky, as the question isn't if the Wildcats will win the league, but if they'll break a sweat in doing so.
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If Columbia can make Kentucky sweat, so too will South Carolina, an improved Florida and…
The Dark Horse: Ole Miss
Florida should come around (though that feels more and more doubtful), but Ole Miss is the real sleeper in the SEC.
Rob Dauster of College Basketball Talk wrote, “The Rebels also have a big, athletic front line, and that should be enough to get them in the mix for that No. 3 spot in the league standings.”
Say Florida doesn’t come around; maybe Ole Miss sneaks up into second in the SEC. If Jarvis Summers’ shot finds the net, Ole Miss will be all the stronger.
Who Makes the Tournament
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Shoo-ins: Kentucky, Arkansas, Ole Miss
Arkansas and Ole Miss will give Kentucky fits, but they all should make it into the tournament.
Has Kentucky already drawn in as a No. 1 seed?
Hopefuls: Florida, LSU, Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia
Florida may come around, but time is running out. Once the Gators chomp down on the relatively weak SEC, they may crack into the field of 68. They are cutting it close. More experience from their young team will prove valuable.
Love that South Carolina upset Iowa State, and watching what Jordan Mickey is doing down in Baton Rouge means LSU is in the hunt.
Alabama is in a must-reach-the-tournament kind of season for its coach, and Georgia is fairly high on some preseason boards, so we'll see if it can carry that momentum through the conference and into the tournament.
Long Shots: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri
There are some nice pieces scattered among these lower teams, but to expect a tournament bid out of any of them is a reach and of suspect logic.
Predicting the 2014-15 SEC Standings
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1. Kentucky
2. Florida
3. Ole Miss
4. Arkansas
5. South Carolina
6. LSU
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. Auburn
10. Tennessee
11. Vanderbilt
12. Texas A&M
13. Mississippi State
14. Missouri
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