Why Bayern Munich Are Right to Avoid New Signings in January Transfer Window

On Monday, Bayern Munich CEO Karl-Heinz Rummenigge put an early end to transfer speculation regarding his club signing reinforcements this winter.

The retired striker is quoted by German source TZ as saying in an interview on German television that the country's record champions will not be active in the January transfer window, at least not from a purchasing perspective. He did, however, leave open the possibility of selling or loaning those players deemed to be surplus to requirements.

Assuming they indeed don't make any new signings in the coming weeks, Bayern are making a wise decision. They have an abundance of class available in all positions, and Pep Guardiola has managed to groom many of his players to fill in at least two or three different roles.

Depth became somewhat of a concern towards the end of the first half of the season, with Mehdi Benatia, Xabi Alonso and Robert Lewandowski all going off injured in a recent match against Freiburg. All three were forced to leave the pitch following non-contact injuries, suggesting overuse as a cause. A similar situation in the spring is unlikely, however, with the club expecting their injured list to diminish rapidly from its current figure of 10.

Stars like the aforementioned, as well as Javi Martinez, Thiago Alcantara, David Alaba, Holger Badstuber and captain Philipp Lahm are all expected to return for the final few months of the campaign. With such quality coming back, it's hard to bet against Bayern. And given how little they've collectively played this season, Martinez, Thiago and Badstuber will be like new signings.

There is something to be said for the risk Bayern are taking in assuming that some or all of their injured stars will be back at full fitness and able to contribute in a big way to the club's title aspirations.

It would be a miracle if Thiago, having not played since this March and not expected to return until March of 2015, were to reach his top form before season's end. Although he may have almost three months back on the pitch to recover form, his duration on the sideline and susceptibility to injury suggest he should be a bit rusty and won't be pushed hard.

Something similar could be said for Martinez, although the holding midfielder will likely have missed "only" half a year before returning. Badstuber is the worst off among all of Bayern's players: By the time the second round begins, he'll have missed all but a couple weeks of the previous 26 months.

However, for long spells of the fall campaign, Bayern looked to be arguably the best team in the world even without the likes of Thiago, Martinez and Badstuber. Bringing back the long-term absentees may not result in a better first-choice starting XI (at least not before the 2015-16 season), but at the very least it would result in a fresher XI.

Bayern are 11 points ahead of Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga table and all signs point to Pep Guardiola's side winning a third consecutive title well before the final matchday. They can afford to slip up. They can afford to use potentially rusty players like Thiago, Martinez and Badstuber to take some of the burden off the shoulders of the best XI. In doing so, disasters like the trio of injuries sustained against Freiburg can be averted.

Bayern are taking a slight risk in assuming that their injured players will be able to feature at all this spring. Thiago and Badstuber were both expected to return long ago but both had multiple setbacks. Still, and despite the two examples in their current team, that risk is rather low. It would be a greater risk for Bayern to make signings that may ultimately lead to a lack of harmony within the squad and at the very least would likely amount to wasted money.

The winter market has traditionally been a poor one for buyers, with prices sky-high and selection rather low. If Bayern wanted to sign a superstar, they'd pay a huge sum and be left with the newcomer plus a returning world-class star (Thiago, for example), which undoubtedly would lead to conflict.

If Bayern were to sign a squad player, he probably wouldn't get any game time once their injured players return, and would likely go the way of Jan Kirchhoff and Nils Petersen: Offloaded after being given almost no chance to prove themselves.

Instead, Bayern can take the modest chances assuming their injured players will return to play some role and save their cash for a more urgent transfer when the time comes. Their real "winter signings" are already confirmed, those being the likes of Alaba, Lahm, Thiago, Martinez and Badstuber.

Tons of class and at no cost, there could hardly be better squad additions.

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