NBA Draft Notebook: Is Myles Turner Worth Gambling on with a Top-10 Pick in 2015
Within a two-minute span in the first half, Texas' Myles Turner, a 6'11" freshman center, had hit three consecutive jumpers during his college debut against North Dakota State. The first was a rise-and-fire baseline jumper in one fluid motion. The next was a 20-footer after pump faking.
The third was a Dirk Nowitzki-like one-legged fallaway after backing his man down and separating.
There aren't that many NBA big men with Turner's comfort level on the perimeter—never mind 18-21-year-old college kids.
He's come out early and reminded scouts what differentiates him from the pack. And as a result, Turner has quickly elevated himself in the 2015 NBA draft conversation following a late rise up the recruiting ranks in high school.
Turner has ultimately flashed a rare blend of strengths that drive his NBA appeal. While he's looked confident and effective facing up and shooting from outside, he's also a natural rim protector. And you just don't typically see many perimeter-scoring shot-blockers.
Through 11 games, he's averaging 11.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 blocks while sporting the second-highest player efficiency rating in the country, per sports-reference.com.
Normally, it's the stretch big men who are the weaker interior defenders. But Turner's tools, particularly his 7'4" wingspan, and his instincts have been well documented, from the 2013 Adidas Nations to this past summer in the FIBA Americas when he averaged 3.6 blocks in only 15.2 minutes a game.
And those numbers have pretty much carried over to Texas, where he's ranked top 10 nationally in block percentage.
But with all the pros tied to Turner's unique skill set and two-way versatility, there are a few concerns over how it will translate and the height of his NBA ceiling.
He went through an usually large growth spurt in high school, and some injuries popped up along the way, beginning with a broken ankle back in the spring of 2012. Just this past April, more ankle trouble prevented him from playing in the 2014 Jordan Brand Classic.
As Turner's body began to grow, so did his feet—to the point where his clown shoe size and light foot injury history have sparked questions regarding his long-term durability.
Turner isn't a particularly flashy athlete to begin with in terms of running and jumping. He hasn't taken an official no-step vertical leap yet or a three-quarter court sprint, but I'd imagine those numbers would be fairly underwhelming.
"He can block shots and step away, but I’m not sure what all the fuss is about just yet. He doesn't move as well as I expected either,” one scout told (subscription required) ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finklestein last April.
Offensively, Turner is almost a little too confident outside and not quite threatening enough down low.
“I’m not completely comfortable [with my size] yet,” Turner told Dallasnews.com's Corbett Smith last February. “I definitely need to get bigger and stronger to be able to go down there and bang more.”
Only a third of his shots this year have come at the rim, per Hoop-Math. The other 66.7 percent of them have been two-point jumpers or threes—not the typical shot selection you see from centers or big men in general.
Turner's lack of strength and explosiveness likely play to his preference for the perimeter over the interior.
So far on the year, he's had a couple of monster showings, including a 25-point, 10-rebound, three-block line against St. Francis and a 26-point, nine-board, six-block game against Lipscomb. But it's been a different story for Turner against power-conference competition, as he's struggled to keep up with its high-level quickness and physicality.
He shot 2 of 8 against California and 1 of 4 against Connecticut and 7-footer Amida Brimah. And unfortunately, his worst outing of the year might have come in front of dozens of pro scouts against Kentucky's NBA-caliber front line, having finished 1-of-5 shooting before fouling out in the loss.
You could have summed up the concerns regarding Turner's outlook on two separate plays. At one point, he unsuccessfully tried to gain post position on Willie Cauley-Stein, only to quickly give up, pop outside for a long three-pointer and throw a brick off the side of the glass.
The other play came inside the foul line, when Turner made an attempt to score in traffic. He ended up getting his shot swatted by both Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns at the same time.
It didn't get much better for Turner on defense, where he just couldn't contest Kentucky's more athletic bigs' shots without fouling. And it's been a problem throughout the first month of the season, despite his strong block percentage and numbers, as ESPN's John Gasaway points out:
Through about a month of college hoops, Turner has flashed some awfully appealing mismatch potential as a two-way center who can generate offense 15-plus feet from the rim. His skill level is just phenomenal, from his touch to his extensive scoring range.
Turner's pure shooting stroke, refined offensive game and basketball IQ should ultimately act as a cushion for him at the next level.
The big question is whether Turner's lack of burst, foot speed and power will hinder his ability to make an interior impact at the pro level. And if it does, what will that do to his overall effectiveness and value?
Offensively, his perimeter-oriented attack has translated to some inconsistency early on (scored eight points or less in six of first 11 games), while his struggles getting off the ground have led to frequent fouls into the body and arms.
Still, given his coveted skill set and polish for a guy with such impressive physical measurements, Turner is bound to attract lottery attention as we get closer to the draft. I pegged him as the No. 11 pick in our most recent 2015 mock, an area on the board I'd imagine he'll stick around from now until March.
But between the questions surrounding his athleticism, awkward feet and ability to play through contact, I'd personally feel a lot better if Turner fell into my lap later in the lottery or mid-first round, as opposed to acquiring him by reaching over potentially more rewarding candidates with fewer red flags.
Notables
- Senior combo guard Jerian Grant has gone off this year for Notre Dame after having missed the second half of last season due to academic issues. Grant's signature game so far came in a win over Michigan State, when he dropped 27 points and six assists, including the go-ahead three-pointer with just over a minute remaining. He's now averaging 18.2 points and 6.3 assists on 54.6 percent shooting and 37.7 percent from downtown. At 6'5", Grant is a big-time playmaker who's clearly taken his offensive game to a new level. Look for the buzz to pick up once conference play arrives, assuming he's able to sustain what's been a scorching hot start.
- While Kentucky has a number of highly touted NBA prospects, freshman shooting guard Devin Booker has hid slightly under the radar. An elite shooter with excellent 6'6" size, Booker hit 5 of 6 from deep against UCLA on Saturday and 3 of 3 from downtown against North Carolina the previous game. Now shooting 45.8 percent from behind the arc on the year, Booker has emerged as one of the top shooters in the country and a potential late first-round option for a team seeking out a sniper.
- Syracuse power forward Chris McCullough appears to have hit the freshman wall after an 0 of 4 shooting line against Villanova and a 1 of 6 performance against Louisiana Tech. He's just a little too raw offensively and not quite strong enough to make a living down low yet. As a bouncy 6'10" big who can score in the paint, shoot in the mid-range and rack up steals and blocks, he's got plenty of long-term upside. But McCullough is much further away from reaching it than his strong early-season numbers might have initially suggested.
- With Montrezl Harrell getting ejected for throwing a punch early against Western Kentucky on Saturday, Louisville sophomore Terry Rozier erupted for 32 points on 9-of-16 shooting. Only he finished without an assist, and he's now averaging just 2.1 on the season. Rozier is a sensational athlete, but it's hard to imagine teams looking to reach on a 6'1" scorer. It will be interesting to see how scouts view Rozier when it's all said and done if he's unable to showcase a floor game or the ability to run an offense at the point.
- Don't look now, but Kansas' freshman Kelly Oubre logged a season-high 25 minutes against Lafayette and finished with 23 points after scoring just 31 total over his first nine games. He knocked down four triples and grabbed 10 boards while playing with some newfound offensive confidence. Look for Oubre's role to continue increasing, as well as the buzz surrounding his top-10 worthy upside.
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