Birmingham Bowl Betting: East Carolina Pirates vs. Florida Gators Odds, Pick

Florida just went through another miserable season, and it lost its head coach. But the Gators also made some money down the stretch, going 4-1 against the spread over their last five games.

East Carolina, meanwhile, made some noise earlier this season, but then word got out and the Pirates finished 1-7 ATS over their last eight games. So two teams riding opposing betting trends meet when 6-5 Florida takes on 8-4 East Carolina in the newly named Birmingham Bowl Saturday, January 3 at Legion Field in (where else?) Birmingham.

Birmingham Bowl point spread: Gators opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 57 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 37.1-35.0 Pirates

Why the Pirates can cover the spread

The Pirates opened this season 6-1 with victories over Virginia Tech and North Carolina (70-41), the only loss a tough 33-23 decision at South Carolina. East Carolina then lost back-to-back games at Temple and at Cincinnati, then beat Tulane and Tulsa.

And the Pirates had Central Florida beat in the regular-season finale but gave up a Hail Mary on the last play of the game to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. On the season, East Carolina, powered by a potent passing attack, ranks fifth in total offense at 533 yards per game and 44th in total defense.

Finally, the Pirates were lined as underdogs three times this season; they won two of those games outright and went 3-0 ATS.

Why the Gators can cover the spread

The Gators lost their head coach along the way this season but actually finished with three wins in their last five games and covered four of their last five.

Earlier this year, Florida played Alabama to a 21-21 tie well into the third quarter, then lost on a field goal with three seconds left against LSU. The Gators followed that up by having both a punt and a field goal blocked in the fourth quarter in an eventual overtime loss to South Carolina and then gave up a 9-0 lead and lost to NCAA playoff qualifier Florida State 24-19.

A play or three here and there, and Will Muschamp might still have his job. The Gators are averaging 190 yards per game on the ground this season, and their defense ranks ninth in the country overall and 12th against the run.

Smart pick

East Carolina owns some nice numbers, but it played a weak schedule this season. Florida, on the other hand, played a Top 10 schedule. And the Gators own an advantage in overall talent. So the smart choice in this spot, despite the struggles, is probably with Florida, minus the points.

Trends

• East Carolina is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games.
• The total has gone over in eight of Florida's last 11 games.

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