NFL Picks & Predictions Week 16: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Now that was more like it!

After a few subpar weeks in a row that had your boy on tilt, I rebounded with an 11-4-1 mark in Week 15. I crushed my best bets, too, going 5-0 in the Hilton SuperContest (where I'm sponsored by the fine folks at OddsShark.com).

I gotta be real with you: That positive performance has me feelin' some type of way. I am confident. I'm ready. I'm jacked up to win some money.

I'm thinking that the good vibes will continue this weekend, and in true Kostos fashion I've grabbed five underdogs as my best bets. 

Let's go, peeps. Let's make that money!

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 16.

Total Season ATS: 122-99-5 (including Jacksonville on Thursday)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 38-39 

Thursday Night Football: Tennessee at Jacksonville

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Final Score: Jacksonville 21, Tennessee 13 (Jacksonville covers -3.5)

To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, the NFL's 2014 Thursday slate of games ended not with a bang but with a whimper, as the Jaguars beat the Titans in a game watched by approximately 17 people.

In fairness, the game actually wasn't terrible, and both teams emerged from the contest as winners.

For the Jaguars, their rookie quarterback, Blake Bortles, showed grit and toughness and led a comeback victory. With a positive showing in Week 17, the Jaguars will feel good about themselves heading into the offseason.

And with the loss, the Titans moved closer to potentially securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft (and probably Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota).

Jacksonville was the only pick in the game. What, you thought I'd take the points with Charlie Whitehurst on the road? LOL.

For the season, I ended up doing pretty well in the Thursday night games. Including the season opener (Green Bay at Seattle) and the three Thanksgiving games, I went 11-7. 

Until next year, Thursday night football. While we all complain about your poor quality, once the offseason hits we'll be begging for your return.

Saturday: Philadelphia at Washington

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

The Line: Philadelphia at Washington (+8)

Call me crazy, but I smell an upset brewing.

That's right. I think the Washington Redskins will beat Philadelphia outright on Saturday and deal a damaging blow to the Eagles' playoff hopes.

(Quick aside: How amazing is it to once again have Saturday NFL games in December? True #TeamDegenerate members surely pumped their collective fists upon hearing the wondrous news.)

You see, this is the problem with the Eagles: They currently employ Mark Sanchez at quarterback. And Sanchez isn't any good. He's turned the ball over 11 times in just six starts, reminding the world that while he is no longer a New York Jet, he is still Mark Sanchez.

As for the Redskins: I can't say I feel great about them as a team, and by that I mean that they're a raging dumpster fire. But the bottom line is that they played pretty well last week against the Giants and got jobbed on a ridiculous call at the end of the first half that likely swung momentum of the game. Quarterback Robert Griffin III played decently upon reinsertion into the starting lineup, and could be in line for a nice start against an Eagles secondary that was just laid waste to by Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

The Redskins are home, and eight points is a lot, especially for a Sanchez-quarterbacked team.

Give me the Redskins to cover the number with confidence, and I like them to win the game as well.

The Pick: Washington (+8)

Saturday: San Diego at San Francisco

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

The Line: San Diego at San Francisco (-1.5)

San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is more of a goner than the dude who got hammered and aggressively tried to pick up the HR girl at your holiday party. (For more on Harbaugh's future, check out this column from B/R's Mike Freeman.)

So, my dear reader and #TeamDegenerate member, be honest with me: If you knew your boss was out the door, would you feel inclined to give your maximum effort? What if I added in the caveat that you were eliminated from receiving any type of bonus (ie: playoff berth) at year's end?

Why in the world would we expect the 49ers to come out and leave their all on the field? One could construct a "win one for the Gipper"-type argument, but this is the NFL. The Chargers are a solid football team playing for their playoff lives and employ a gamer in quarterback Philip Rivers.

The Chargers have more to play for and have shown that they play well with their backs against the wall. Expect Rivers to pull this one out late and keep the Chargers in the thick of the AFC playoff race.

And afterward, Harbaugh will only have one more game left on the 49ers sideline before he gets paid an exorbitant amount of money to coach somewhere else.

The Pick: San Diego (+1.5)

Cleveland at Carolina

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Line: Cleveland at Carolina (-3.5)

Remember when everyone was excited to watch Johnny Manziel play quarterback in the NFL?

Yeah, me neither.

The Pick: Carolina (-3.5)

Detroit at Chicago

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The Line: Detroit at Chicago (+8.5)

I'll admit it: I was depressed when I found out the Bears had benched starting quarterback Jay Cutler in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen.

I was so looking forward to pounding the Lions and even playing them in the Hilton SuperContest. While I'll still take the Lions, I don't feel as good now that my man Cutty is riding the bench.

If Cutler were a wrestler, this would be his entrance music. Why? Because the dude doesn't care, yo. That's why any Lions bettor should have been upset when the news was announced. Clausen might stink, but at least he cares. Cutler doesn't give a damn.

But even with Clausen under center, I still like the Lions. How are the Bears going to stop Detroit's passing attack? Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate should have a field day, and I expect Joique Bell to find the end zone as well.

The only shot Chicago has is if Clausen's insertion into the starting lineup revitalizes both the jaded Bears crowd and the team.

And I believe the proper response to that statement is LOL.

The Pick: Detroit (-8.5)

Baltimore at Houston

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

The Line: Baltimore at Houston (+5.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are 9-5 and are riding a two-game winning streak.

The Houston Texans lost a heartbreaker last week in Indianapolis to drop their record to 7-7.

The Ravens have the look and feel of a Super Bowl contender.

The Texans' top three quarterbacks to start the season—Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage—are all injured, meaning the team will start Case Keenum at quarterback.

Earlier this week, I wrote a column saying the Ravens are the biggest threat in the AFC to the Patriots and Broncos.

Over 80 percent of the betting public thinks the Ravens will win by six points or more.

Yup.

The Pick: Houston (+5.5)

Minnesota at Miami

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The Line: Minnesota at Miami (-6.5)

Every Sunday night, I go through the exercise of guessing the spreads for the upcoming week, and when I came to Minnesota at Miami I didn't even guess. I just circled Minnesota, assuming Miami would be favored at home.

I'm going to let you in on a little secret: Joe Philbin's Miami Dolphins are choke artists. We saw it at the end of last year, when they yakked away a potential playoff berth by losing their final two games to inferior competition (Buffalo and NY Jets). What has happened this year to give anyone any indication that things will be different?

Miami is riding a disappointing two-game losing streak that has its record at 7-7, and it's almost impossible to envision a scenario where it qualifies for the postseason. Do you have confidence in Philbin's ability to get the Dolphins ready to play? Personally, I have more confidence in his ability to completely mangle game and time management.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have quietly been building for future success, with rookie passer Teddy Bridgewater looking the part of an NFL quarterback. Just check out what offensive coordinator Norv Turner had to say about Bridgewater this week.

The Vikings are the better team with the better coach and the better quarterback. Plus, they aren't choke artists.

Forget about the points: Give me Minnesota to win the damn game outright.

The Pick: Minnesota (+6.5)

Atlanta at New Orleans

David Goldman/Associated Press

The Line: Atlanta at New Orleans (-6)

I currently have a pending futures bet (placed back in August) on the New Orleans Saints to win the Super Bowl. In a related story, I'll soon owe my bookie an extra $50 and I'm a complete moron.

It's insane to think that this could very well be the de facto NFC South title game, especially when considering the Falcons and Saints have a combined 11 wins. But here we are, and if the Saints can pull this one out at home, they'll be in great shape to claim the division title and fight to win my bet (they have zero chance of doing so. Sigh.)

In theory, the Saints should win and cover this spread. But in theory, the Saints should be better than 6-8, and they ain't, so you know how that song and dance goes. New Orleans just isn't good enough to be a six-point favorite over the Falcons, even in the friendly confines of the Superdome.

It doesn't matter if star receiver Julio Jones plays for the Falcons: They will fall inside the number. Matt Ryan will make enough throws to keep the game close. More importantly, the Saints will make enough boneheaded mistakes to keep the Falcons in it.

Expect the Saints to win a close game but the Falcons to cover the number.

The Pick: Atlanta (+6)

New England at NY Jets

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

The Line: New England at NY Jets (+10.5)

Before you get on me for picking the Jets, ask yourself this question: Is it true or false that everyone and their mother thinks the Patriots will win this game in blowout fashion?

Then ask yourself this question: Did the casinos in Las Vegas build themselves, or were they constructed off the hard-earned money of everyone and their mother?

I'm not insinuating the Jets will win the game, because that'd be real stupid. But 10.5 points is a lot to lay on a road favorite, especially when that road favorite is the biggest square bet of the week.

The Pick: NY Jets (+10.5)

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

Wade Payne/Associated Press

The Line: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-3)

I'm always honest with you, dear reader. And I must tell the truth here: I have no idea what's going to happen in this game. I think Kansas City at Pittsburgh is the toughest game of the week to pick.

I could see either team winning and I wouldn't be surprised by any result. Seriously. If the Chiefs won by 20, I wouldn't necessarily be shocked. And I wouldn't be floored if Pittsburgh won in blowout fashion, either.

I'll take the home team here because I think the Steelers are ultimately better, but I don't feel great about it. I wouldn't advise any members of #TeamDegenerate tossing down their hard-earned money on this game as I think it's too close to call, but if I had to pick a side I'd back the Steelers.

The Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

The Line: Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+11.5)

As regular readers of this column know, one of my favorite gambling exercises is to flip the home/away team to see what the line would be. If we made Green Bay the home team in this game, they would be -17.5.

And that is entirely too many points to lay in professional football. 

Look, the Packers are going to win the game. I'm not disputing that fact. And I'm sure that Jordy Nelson will actually hold onto a 95-yard touchdown pass in this game after dropping one last week in Buffalo. Not that I'm a bitter fantasy owner or anything, but that picture will be on the cover of the 2014 Kostos fantasy season program.

But laying 11.5 points on the road? Nah, I'm good. Because if I do that, I know what will happen: Green Bay will be leading 34-17 late in the game with Josh McCown driving the Bucs down the field for a garbage time touchdown. And I would be completely devastated watching the Packers sitting in a prevent defense as Mike Evans snags catch after catch.

The backdoor cover potential is too much for me. If the spread were Green Bay -10.5, I'd actually consider laying it. But I can't do it at -11.5.

I'm taking Tampa Bay with the points.

May God have mercy on my soul.

The Pick: Tampa Bay (+11.5)

NY Giants at St. Louis

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Line: NY Giants at St. Louis (-6.5)

I really, really don't want to do this...

(Voice inside my head: Nick, how is the Giants offensive line going to protect Eli Manning against the Rams pass rush?)

But the Giants looked good last week in beating the Redskins, and appear to be gaining momentum heading into a critical offseason!

(Voice inside my head: They might have to peel Manning off the turf with a spatula at the end of the game!)

But the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr., who could be the greatest athlete in the history of ever!

(Voice inside my head: But he's only one player! Come on, Nick!)

Nah. Sorry, voice inside my head. I'm down with ODB. And yes, you know me.

Give me the Giants to win the game outright, too.

The Pick: NY Giants (+6.5)

Indianapolis at Dallas

Michael Perez/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at Dallas (-3)

All week, my pick for this game has come down to two factors: The playing status of Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton and Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray.

Hilton did not practice this week with a hamstring injury, and Mike Chappell (who covers the Colts for RTV6 in Indianapolis) tweeted that he's "convinced" Hilton will miss the game.

Meanwhile, Murray—the NFL's leading rusher with 1,687 yards—underwent surgery on Monday for a broken bone in his hand, leaving his status for Sunday's all-important tilt in doubt. But Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk.com reported Friday that Murray is "determined" to play, and things appear to be trending in that direction.

If Murray plays and can handle a full workload, forget about it. Remember what the Patriots did to the Colts back in Week 11? Jonas Gray rushed for something like 4,000 yards and 58 touchdowns in that game, and Murray is approximately 7,000 times better than Gray.

The Cowboys should pound the rock and keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands, and when Luck does have the ball he'll likely be without his most explosive target in Hilton.

And that makes all the difference in picking this game.

The Pick: Dallas (-3)

Buffalo at Oakland

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The Line: Buffalo at Oakland (+7)

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a huge home victory over the Green Bay Packers, and their defense is playing spectacular football.

The Oakland Raiders are coming off an embarrassing defeat in Kansas City.

The spread for the game has been bet up to Buffalo +7 by the public. Over 80 percent of the public likes Buffalo by a touchdown or more.

You should know what this means by now, homie.

(PS: The "under" in this game could be my favorite bet of the week. How are these teams going to score points? I think it'll be a 13-10 final in either direction.)

The Pick: Oakland (+7)

Sunday Night Football: Seattle at Arizona

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Line: Seattle at Arizona (+8)

Do you respect the Arizona Cardinals? Do you respect their coach, the great Bruce Arians? Do you respect their 11-3 record?

If you answered "yes" to any of those questions, can you really take the Seahawks laying eight points on the road, in the desert, in prime time, with a possible division title (and playoff bye) on the line?

Yes, dear reader, you make a good point: The Cardinals are indeed starting Ryan Lindley at quarterback. He of the career zero touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The same Ryan Lindley who set back quarterback play at least 50 years in a 2012 start against the Jets.

I'm not here to stump for Lindley, mostly because I've got better things to do, but also because it'd be dumb. The dude is horrendous. 

But the rest of the Cardinals team is pretty damn good and is worthy of respect. And I respect them too much to think they'll get blown out at home.

Don't get it twisted: I like the Seahawks to win a close game. But it won't come in blowout fashion.

The Pick: Arizona (+8)

Monday Night Football: Denver at Cincinnati

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Line: Denver at Cincinnati (+3)

It's time for everyone's favorite game: The Andy Dalton Big-Game Checklist!

Is this a big game for the Cincinnati Bengals? Check!

Is the game being played in prime time? Check!

Is the game being played against one of the elite teams in the AFC? Check!

Come on, people. You weren't really considering taking the Bengals in this one, were you? You'd be totally devastated by the time Dalton threw his second interception of the first half.

Peyton Manning won't have to throw the ball 40-plus times to win this game, he'll just need to hand it off to C.J. Anderson and watch the second-year rusher churn out yardage against the league's 24th-ranked run defense.

After the Patriots beat the Jets on Sunday, the Broncos will need to win to keep pace in the race for home-field advantage in the AFC. They'll do just that on Monday night against an inferior Bengals team with a choke artist at quarterback and head coach (what up, Marvin Lewis?).

The Pick: Denver (-3)

Surefire Lock of the Week

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Best Bets of the Week Against the Spread

1. Minnesota (+6.5 at Miami)
2. Houston (+5.5 vs. Baltimore)
3. Washington (+7.5 vs. Philadelphia)
4. NY Jets (+10.5 vs. New England)
5. Oakland (+7 vs. Buffalo)

Best 'Under' Bets of the Week

1. Buffalo at Oakland (under 40 points)
2. Indianapolis at Dallas (under 55 points)

Best 'Over' Bets of the Week

1. San Diego at San Francisco (over 40.5 points)
2. Green Bay at Tampa Bay (over 49 points)

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!