Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Breaking Down New Orleans' Game Plan
The New Orleans Saints will entertain the Atlanta Falcons in a crucial Week 16 NFC South matchup, as both squads have their sights set on the divisional title.
New Orleans (6-8) comes into this one with the divisional lead, but the 5-9 Falcons have already defeated the Saints once this year, and they’ll be going for the series sweep Sunday afternoon.
As New Orleans coach Sean Payton and his staff analyze game film of Atlanta, they’ll notice that the Falcons don’t play good defense and don’t particularly run the ball well. One thing Atlanta excels at, however, is throwing the football.
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The Falcons bring the NFL’s fifth-ranked pass offense into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and head coach Mike Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter have some top-notch talent at their disposal.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan torched the Saints defense for 448 passing yards in the Falcons’ 37-34 win in Week 1, and New Orleans will again have its hands full against the likes of Julio Jones, Roddy White and the rest of Atlanta’s explosive receiving corps.
According to the Falcons' official injury report, Jones has battled an injury as of late, as have White and Harry Douglas. None of them have been ruled out yet for the game, however, and the Saints would be wise to prepare as if they'll all be in action come Sunday.
Koetter utilizes a predominantly vertical air attack that attempts to apply heavy pressure on opposing safeties. Atlanta typically lines up in a four-receiver spread formation, but the Falcons will also go with a “heavy” look with multiple tight ends.
Either way, Jones is the Falcons’ most formidable offensive weapon, and Atlanta will attempt to get the ball into his hands as often as possible.
Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, meanwhile, prefers press-man coverage on the outside. Keenan Lewis is without question New Orleans’ top cover man, and he can lock up in single coverage with numerous No. 1 receivers throughout the league.
Like most corners, however, he’ll have his hands full with Jones, who may be the NFL’s best receiver not named Calvin Johnson. Lewis' ability to hold his own in this matchup will be one of the keys to the game for New Orleans.
On this play against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12, Jones demonstrates how dangerous he is against single coverage. Cardinals Pro Bowl corner Patrick Peterson, a top-flight cover man in his own right, surrenders this 32-yard first-quarter touchdown to Jones.
Peterson's coverage isn't bad, but Jones' athletic prowess, along with a pinpoint pass from Ryan, proves too much for the All-Pro Cardinals corner on this play.
This isn’t to suggest that the Saints shy away from a Lewis-Jones one-on-one matchup in single coverage, but the Falcons are hardly a one-man show. The Saints secondary will have to mix in some zone coverages in order to contain the other Atlanta wideouts.
Cover 2 and Cover 3 are viable options against Atlanta’s vertical attack, but each coverage comes with its vulnerabilities, as well as its advantages. For instance, against Cover 3 looks, the Falcons won’t hesitate to repeatedly go underneath with curl routes to keep the chains moving.
The best way to keep Ryan and Co. from settling into a comfort zone is for New Orleans to mix up its coverages on a consistent basis. If done frequently, this may eventually lead to mistakes from Atlanta’s offense.
The Falcons wideouts often improvise in the middle of plays, changing their routes based on what the defense is doing. If the defense consistently changes, Ryan and the Falcons wideouts are more likely to make mistakes, such as this one against the Cardinals.
Here, Ryan anticipates Jones to curl back, which he often does against Cover 3, but the wideout continues heading downfield. Arizona safety Rashad Johnson reads Ryan perfectly to make the interception, which he returns 88 yards for a touchdown.
Rob Ryan did an exceptional job of continuously mixing up the Saints’ looks last week against the Chicago Bears, and he should employ the same tactic in this week’s matchup.
Of course, if Matt Ryan has adequate time in the pocket, he’ll eventually find an open man, no matter what defense the Saints are in. That’s why New Orleans must establish an effective pass rush and make things difficult for him.
Ryan typically does a better job than most quarterbacks dealing with pressure, and the Saints simply hurrying him into quick decisions won’t be enough. They must hit him and put him on the ground.
The New Orleans defense will therefore need big games from primary pass-rushers Cam Jordan and Junior Galette, as well as interior defensive lineman Akiem Hicks.
While the Saints will try and do all they can to make things difficult for Atlanta, the Falcons simply have too good of an offense to be shut down. Koetter’s unit will, in all likelihood, score some points in this one.
If the Saints are to win, they’ll have to match Atlanta with their own high-flying offense.
Drew Brees will challenge the Falcons’ 32nd-ranked defense with a potent vertical passing game that features wideouts Kenny Stills and Marques Colston, along with tight ends Jimmy Graham and Josh Hill. He’ll also look to stretch Atlanta horizontally with running back Pierre Thomas, fullback Erik Lorig and tight end Benjamin Watson.
The key for the New Orleans offense, however, will be balance. The Saints will attempt to pound the Falcons front seven with a physical, downhill running attack spearheaded by Mark Ingram. If Ingram and the New Orleans offensive line are able to win first down more often than not, that will make things that much easier on Brees, and the Atlanta defense will be in for another long afternoon.
The Saints and the Falcons field the two worst statistical defenses in the league, and there isn’t likely to be a shortage of points in this one. Two elite passers, along with a host of playmakers on both sides, should make for a highly entertaining contest, with the winner emerging in good shape in the race for the NFC South title.
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