Packers vs. Buccaneers: Complete Week 16 Preview for Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will return home for the final two games of a disappointing 2014 season, and first on the docket will be the 10-4 Green Bay Packers.

Sunday's game is scheduled to kick off at 1 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium and will be aired on Fox.

The Bucs are coming off yet another loss in a game decided by seven points or fewer, and at 2-12, they are barely leading the running for the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL draft.  The Packers are on the opposite side of the spectrum, fighting with the Detroit Lions for the NFC North crown and a top seed in the playoffs.

ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas says it's a long shot to expect a Tampa Bay win this week, but it's hard to know what to expect from this year's team:

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It's a long shot any way you look at it. But the best chance for Tampa Bay would be if the defense plays a great game. That's going to be tough without McCoy, but there still is enough individual talent on this defense to have a good outing. To win, though, the defense has to be more than good. It has to be outstanding, and it would have to produce points, because Tampa Bay's offense isn't explosive enough to stay with the Packers. Like I said, it's a long shot, but you never know what you're going to get with the Bucs.

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Will the Bucs be able to stifle Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack the way the Buffalo Bills did last week?  Or will Rodgers and Co. make Tampa Bay pay for its poor performance?

Here's everything you need to know heading into this week's game.

Bucs Week 15 Recap

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Bucs lost yet another close one last week, falling on the road to the division rival Carolina Panthers, 19-17.

For the second time this season, the Bucs lost to a Panthers team that didn't have the services of Cam Newton.  Backup quarterback Derek Anderson beat Tampa Bay yet again, throwing for 277 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers.

As comfortable as Anderson looked leading the Panthers offense, the same couldn't be said for Tampa Bay's Josh McCown, who completed just 13 of his 28 passes for 154 yards, a touchdown and an interception.  The Bucs offense managed just 287 total yards, failing to take advantage of a defense that forced field goals on four of Carolina's five scoring drives.

Both Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin went over the century mark in receiving yards for the Panthers, with Olsen leading the team with 10 catches for 110 yards, while the rookie Benjamin hauled in eight passes for 104 yards.  Jonathan Stewart led Carolina on the ground with 75 yards on 22 carries.

Doug Martin enjoyed his best performance of the season so far, rushing for 96 yards on just 14 carries, with 63 of them coming on a single first-half run that set up Tampa Bay's first touchdown.  Rookie running back Charles Sims added 79 total yards on 10 touches.

Vincent Jackson led all Tampa Bay receivers with 70 yards on six catches, and while rookie Mike Evans caught just two passes for 13 yards, one of them was good for his team-leading 11th touchdown reception of the season.

Tampa Bay took a 10-9 lead into halftime, but it sputtered immediately coming out of the locker room.  A false start penalty on the first play of the third quarter was followed moments later by a sack and fumble by McCown, which was recovered by the Panthers at the Bucs' own 4-yard line and led to Carolina's only touchdown of the game.

A 16-yard touchdown scramble by McCown would bring the Bucs within two points late in the fourth quarter, but Carolina was able to run enough of the clock out to come away with its fifth win of the year while sending the Bucs to their 12th loss in 14 tries this season.

News and Notes

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McCoy: Future Still Bright

A two-time Pro Bowler and the vocal leader of the defense, Gerald McCoy is understandably frustrated to be missing the Bucs' final two games after being placed on injured reserve this week. But McCoy knows the move is for the best, and he wants to be at full health to help the Bucs achieve their long-term goals, according to Pat Yasinskas of ESPN.com:

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I believe this is the best decision because it’s more long-term. I think we have a lot of great -- not good -- great ahead of us with this team and this organization. A big part of that will be my health. I need to be healthy if we’re going to be successful.

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McCoy struggled through multiple injuries this season, playing through a broken hand earlier in the year and dealing with knee injuries over the past two weeks.  It's a smart move by the Bucs to shut him down, with the playoffs well out of reach, in hopes he'll be in top form heading into next season.

Bucs Own Recent Edge Over Pack

As former division foes, the Bucs and Packers have plenty of history with one another.

As Scott Smith of Buccaneers.com points out, Green Bay may have the overall edge, but the Bucs have had the upper hand over recent years:

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...Green Bay's overall edge is 31-20-1, although the Buccaneers have won three of the last four and seven of the last 11. Mainly because they shared a division from 1977-2001, the Buccaneers and Packers have met in 31 of the 39 seasons in Tampa Bay franchise history (including 2014)...

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Tampa Bay might be riding a successful stretch against its former NFC Central rivals, but these two teams couldn't be further apart in the current NFL pecking order.  That said, stranger things have happened in the NFL this season, so nothing should surprise anyone at this point.

A Familiar Face

When the Packers roll into Raymond James Stadium this week, they'll be lining up against former teammate Evan Dietrich-Smith, who left one bay for the other as a free agent this offseason.

The veteran center appreciates the time he spent in the Frozen Tundra, but he knows the NFL is a business, and that tough decisions need to be made, per Vic Ketchman of Packers.com:

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Sometimes you’ve got to do what’s best for your family. I appreciate everything the Packers did for me, giving me the opportunities they did, all the years I spent there. At the end of the day, you only get so many years in this league and you’ve got to kind of do what’s best for you.

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Dietrich-Smith has struggled this season, but you can bet he'll have a little extra motivation to perform at a high level this week against his former team.

Injury Report

USA TODAY Sports

Player	Position	Injury Status
Mason Foster	LB	Limited Participation
Clinton McDonald	DT	Limited Participation
Dashon Goldson	S	Limited Participation
Major Wright	S	Limited Participation
Bobby Rainey	RB	Full Participation
Kevin Pamphile	OT	Limited Participation
Isaiah Frey	CB	Did Not Participate
Solomon Patton	WR	Limited Participation

*All injury statuses courtesy of Buccaneers.com, based on participation in Thursday's practice.

The most meaningful injuries for the Bucs this week are on the defensive side of the ball, with four starters being limited in Thursday's practice and Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy being placed on injured reserve.

McCoy's absence will leave Tampa Bay without its best defensive lineman, while his running mate on the interior, McDonald, is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury.  Akeem Spence and Da'Quan Bowers will have to step up and play plenty of quality snaps this week.

Foster (Achilles) is still limited in practice, which could lead to yet another start in the middle for pleasantly surprising reserve Danny Lansanah, who became the first player in Bucs history to make at least one start at every linebacker spot in a single season.

Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has already confirmed, via Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, Wright (ribs) will be out this week.  He'll be replaced in the starting lineup again this week by Bradley McDougald, who led the Bucs with 15 tackles last week.

Frey (ankle) was the only Buccaneer to be held completely out of practice Thursday, which means it's likely Leonard Johnson will get most, if not all, of the snaps at the nickel corner spot Sunday.

With both Patton (foot) and Rainey (wrist) still limited, the Bucs could be looking for an alternate return man this week.  Pamphile's (ankle/knee) game action was cut short quickly last week, and Tampa Bay's weak offensive line could be even thinner Sunday without the rookie fifth-rounder.

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

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Bucs Ground Game vs. Packers Rush Defense

Green Bay has one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, allowing an average of 128 yards per game.  The Bucs have had some success running the ball in the first half of games this season, but they have been extremely ineffective in the second half, particularly over the last four weeks.

Beating the Packers starts with stopping Aaron Rodgers, but it's a lot easier to do that if he's not on the field.  If the Bucs can sustain long drives with a balanced offense that takes advantage of Green Bay's weaknesses, it will give them their best shot to pull off an upset.

Packers Receivers vs. Bucs Secondary

Green Bay's receivers have run circles around nearly every secondary they've faced, but they ran into a brick wall in last week's loss to the Bills.  Buffalo's defensive backs got physical early and often, throwing the entire Packers passing attack off its rhythm, and it led to Rodgers' worst outing of the season.

Tampa Bay's secondary isn't known for being particularly physical, but it's allowed only one 300-yard passing game in the last six weeks.  Still, if the Buccaneers want to avoid another one, they'll need to rough up Green Bay's receivers at the line and keep them uncomfortable all game long.

Bucs Front Seven vs. Eddie Lacy

The Packers are known more for their vaunted passing game, but it could easily be the bruising running style of Lacy that wears the Bucs down this week.

Even in a losing effort last week against Buffalo, Green Bay's offense was at its best when it was feeding Lacy the ball.  The Bucs are banged up in the interior of the defensive line and could be without starting middle linebacker Mason Foster, which means it could be a long day for Tampa Bay fans if the team can't handle the constant pounding from Lacy.

Bucs X-Factor of the Week: DT Da'Quan Bowers

With McCoy now on injured reserve and McDonald struggling with a hamstring injury, the Bucs are likely to be extremely thin along the interior of the defensive line this week.

Bowers should get a huge workload at McCoy's 3-technique spot, and he's put together some solid performances over the past few weeks, against both the run and pass.  A former defensive end, Bowers doesn't have the explosiveness to bend the edge anymore, but he does have enough quickness to beat interior linemen.

Containing the Packers' potent offensive attack starts with rattling Rodgers and making him uncomfortable.  If Bowers can be disruptive in the middle, it could go a long way toward setting that kind of tone this week.

Prediction

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The Bucs may have had some recent success against the Cheeseheads, but it's going to take a Christmas miracle for them to come away with a win this week.

Rodgers is coming off of his worst performance of the year, and he will be looking to take his frustrations out on a Tampa Bay secondary that is improving but that still isn't ready to shut down one of the league's most explosive offenses.  Green Bay's rush defense is weak, but the Bucs will likely be trailing considerably, forcing them to the air and preventing them from exploiting the Packers' biggest weakness.

It might not be as ugly as some of the Bucs' early-season efforts, but this one will go handily in favor of the road team.

Prediction: Packers 38, Bucs 17