Finding Historical Comparisons for James Harden Is Fun but Nearly Impossible

James Harden is not the “next” anyone; he’s the first James Harden. In fact, unlike most superstars, he’s escaped the “next” mantra entirely.

Kobe Bryant was called the “Air Apparent” his whole career because he patterned his game after Michael Jordan. LeBron James has been compared to Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson because of their triple-double tendencies.

There is no previous Harden, though. There are only players with shared characteristics. These are the ones who have the most in common with him.

All of these appraisals are based solely on the offensive side of the ball. Harden’s defense isn’t worth comparing to anyone—even with this season’s improvements. Bear in mind, though, that he is still only 25 and in his sixth year.

James started off as a defensive liability too. He didn’t make his first All-Defensive team until he was in his seventh season. Players develop their games, especially when they’re younger. Harden has clearly upped his defense, but there is still room to grow.

It would be dishonest to assume that he will blossom into an All-Defensive player, and it would be equally dishonest to presume that he won’t. We’ll table those discussions for another day.

These are the closest comparisons, listed by degree of similarity to Harden and why.

6. Brian Wilson, Beard Game

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

One night, I was watching a Rockets game, and my wife (who is not a basketball fan) looks at the screen and quips, “That guy’s beard is an entity of its own.” Nailed it!

Before we knew Harden for anything else, we knew him for his furious face foliage which he sports. It’s mesmerizing in its own way. I would not be surprised if at some point during a game it revealed itself as a separate life form, sprang from Harden’s head and drew a foul.

When I asked him once if there were any other beards he admired, he was quick to mention Brian Wilson’s. Then he specifically added that there weren’t any others he could think of (sorry Ryan Fitzpatrick).

Thus, while we can’t specifically say he modeled his beard game after Wilson, we can go extra-basketball for the comparison.

5. Manu Ginobili, Contact Highlighting

Keeping this positive, we’re not going to use the four-letter f-word here to describe one’s ability to highlight contact by allowing your body to demonstrate the full force of a collision.

OK. Maybe you’re not buying it, but the refs sure are (which I wrote about here). Harden didn’t invent that aspect of the game; he just honed it into an art form. Before he was sprouting the fruits of his first facial follicles, Manu Ginobili of the San Antonio Spurs was introducing the world to the ability.

Oh sure, there was some Vlade Divac in there, too. But Ginobili proved that contact-highlighting wasn’t just a big man’s game; shooting guards could do it, too. People were so impressed with his ability that they even wrote odes to it.

Harden is the next great contact-highlighter, and he’s bringing that aspect of the game to a new level. Since his arrival in Space City, he’s virtually done the refs' job for them. Because of his willingness to help them, they’ve gifted him with the most free throws since the start of the 2011-12 season: 1,298.

4. Paul Pierce, Old-Man Game

Paul Pierce has what they call “old-man game.” There’s a point where players lose their athleticism and springs which made them great in the first place but learn to use the wisdom accrued through the years to still dominate.

The thing about Pierce is he just went straight to old-man game. He never had great athleticism, but he learned to deliberately vary his speed to simulate it. Rob Mahoney wrote about that in March for Sports Illustrated:

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The ease with which Pierce changes directions and speeds is in itself a physical ability, albeit one maximized by his guile. There's no question that Pierce understands the value of varied movement, perhaps to a deeper extent than any player in the league. But he is only so successful as a stutter-step player because he's able to shift gears constantly while maintaining perfect balance. That's an incredible physical talent, albeit one not captured by a traditional conception of athleticism that favors sprinting speed and aerial acrobatics above the more restrained flares of a player like Pierce.

"

And in that sense Harden is similar to Pierce. It’s often as though Harden morphs time around him. And all flopping jokes aside, that’s how he is able to generate as much contact as he does.

Bradford Doolittle, writing for ESPN.com (subscription required) did a study last year utilizing data from the 2012-13 season, in which he explains: 

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Athleticism in a dictionary sense is a descriptive term that normally describes things like speed, quickness and jumping ability. Those physical qualities are measurable, too, and scouting websites have published and archived that kind of data for NBA prospects for several years. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about what I refer to as "applied athleticism." In a nutshell, I don't want to know a player's vertical leap. I want to know how well he translates his hops into measurable basketball production like rebounds and blocked shots.

"

In other words, it’s not just about how athletic a player is but how well he brings it to the game. Pierce was 25th on Doolittle’s list of players who did the best job of utilizing their abilities. Harden was 11th. And since Harden has improved the numbers upon which the methodology is applied (which includes drawing fouls), it’s likely he’s moved up even higher.

The difference is that Harden actually is athletic. But, similar to Pierce, he maximizes what he has. His calculated, deliberate method of attack shows wisdom beyond his years.

3. Charles Barkley, Stature and Efficiency

Charles Barkley shouldn't be the first person who springs to mind when you think of James Harden, but whenever I watch Harden play, I can’t help but think of the former great.

Their similar stature, with the hunched-over look induced by their long, muscular arms, is striking. From the neck down, Harden looks like a Barkley mini-me.

And their manner of play, whether they body up inside to post up taller defenders or guard them, requires the same upper-body strength. You even see shades of Barkley whenever Harden is extending those lengthy upper limbs to snare a rebound from the clutches of a center.

Statistically, they’re close too. From age 23-35, Barkley averaged 25.8 points, 12.9 boards and 4.0 assists with a 66.0 true shooting percentage. Harden, in the same years, has 25.8 points, 5.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists with a 60.5 true shooting percentage. Per Basketball-Reference.com, that makes them just two of six players to notch those numbers over that span. 

Barkley was a good passer for a power forward. Harden is a good rebounder for a shooting guard. For players with such different roles in different eras, they’re remarkably similar. Aesthetically, Barkley is the closest I can come.

2. Jerry West, Box-Score Numbers

During his tenure in Houston, the Rockets superstar has averaged 25.8 points, 6.1 assists and 5.0 rebounds (as stated previously, but repeated so you don’t have to click back through the slides). In the history of the league, only three players have averaged 25, six and five for their careers: LeBron James, Oscar Robertson and Jerry West.

Of those three, West, who averaged 27.0 points, 6.7 assists and 5.8 rebounds, has the numbers that are closest to Harden’s Houston stats. West’s are slightly better, but Harden is just barely 25, and his best years are probably ahead of him. This year he’s notching 26.9, 6.8 and 6.3, so he’s closing the gap.

There is a major stylistic distinction between West and Harden, though. West was more of a jump-shooter. His nickname was “Mr. Outside.” Harden does have a jump shot. In Houston he’s averaged 2.3 treys per game at a 36.2 percent rate.

But a huge part of Harden’s game is getting to the rim. Driving is not something that West was particularly noted for. So, while Harden’s numbers resemble West’s, he doesn't get them in the same way.

1. Kobe Byrant, Minus the Mid-Range

Bryant and Harden are a lot more alike than you might think, but there’s one massive difference. From a statistical standpoint, most would agree that Bryant’s best year was 2005-06. He averaged 35.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists.

By comparison, Harden had 25.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists last year.

Now, the rebounds and assists are similar, but you’re probably looking at the 10-point difference in scoring and muttering something indecipherable or unprintable. Understood. But that’s where things are most interesting.

Bryant averaged 2.3 three-point makes per game. Harden averaged 2.4. Bryant notched 8.7 from the stripe—Harden, 7.9. And they were nearly identical in terms of getting to the rim. Bryant had 3.3 buckets inside the restricted area. Harden had 3.0.

And Bryant played three more minutes per game.

In the three combined areas, Harden averaged 21.1 points per game and 20.0 per 36 minutes. In 2006, Bryant averaged 22.2 and 19.5. Harden’s true shooting percentage on those shots was 69.9. Bryant’s was 66.9.

In the preferred-scoring areas, both in terms of volume and efficiency, the players are very similar. That means virtually the entire 10-point difference came between the semicircles, which is also why Harden’s true shooting percentage last year was 61.8 and Bryant’s in 2006 was only 55.9.

Some would call that an example of how Bryant is more skilled, saying that Harden has no mid-range game. Others would cite it as an example of why he is so inefficient, saying it's because he takes too many shots from the least efficient areas. 

A person’s position will likely stem from his feelings on Bryant. But the truth is that more than anything, it indicates how much analytics have changed the game in the last eight years.

Stats for this article were obtained from Basketball-Reference.com.