5 Ways Connecticut Basketball Can Upset Duke

The defending national champion Connecticut Huskies will take on the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils on Thursday evening from the neutral-site IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

After last season’s magical NCAA tournament run ended with them cutting down the nets, this year has been a bit of a difficulty for the Huskies. At 4-3 on the year, Connecticut has been defeated by West Virginia and also lost two one-point games in a row to Texas and Yale. It's coming off of a 106-85 victory over Coppin State and apparently is gaining its confidence back.

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Senior Ryan Boatright on the state of the Huskies: "We're starting to figure each other out. Our chemistry is getting stronger."

— Gavin Keefe (@GavinKeefe) December 16, 2014"

In that game, sophomore center Amida Brimah went off for 40 points and 12 rebounds as he took advantage of his size advantage, going 13 of 13 from the field and 14 of 16 from the free-throw line. The unquestioned leader of the team, however, is senior guard Ryan Boatright, who is averaging 18.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest.

Duke is off to a perfect 9-0 start to the season and has won each game by double digits. The Huskies will have their hands full with the Blue Devils, since they rank fourth in the NCAA in points per game with 87.6, eighth in assists with 18.4 per game and third in field-goal percentage, shooting 52.7 percent. Any Mike Krzyzewski team plays wise beyond its years, and this team is no exception. Freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor leads Duke by averaging 18.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest.

If the Huskies expect to pull off the upset tonight, they must accomplish the following tasks, in no particular order.

1. Get Jahlil Okafor in Foul Trouble

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

The presumed No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft, Okafor is off to a great start to his collegiate career. The talented freshman big man averages 18.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 27.6 minutes per game and has shot an impressive 65.5 percent from the field, going 72 of 110.

Possessing a variety of NBA-ready post moves on the offensive end, Okafor also has a professional body. As seen earlier in the season, particularly against West Virginia and Texas, Connecticut struggles with strong, physical players in the post.

The way to force Okafor out of the game is to simply get him in early foul trouble, and the Huskies can do this in a few ways. UConn center Amida Brimah attempted a career-high 16 free throws last game and has shown he can get to the charity stripe. Feeding the ball to Brimah down low might be a strategy that Kevin Ollie employs.


Another way the Huskies can get Okafor in foul trouble is by using Ryan Boatright in pick-and-roll sets early on in the game. Okafor would likely be forced to switch onto Boatright, where Boatright would be able to use his quickness to attempt to drive past or into the big man where he can draw fouls.

The first way to beat Duke is to take their best player off the court as early as possible. He’s coming off of a dominating performance against Elon in which he had 25 points and 20 rebounds.

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Jahlil Okafor: 1st Duke player with a 20-point, 20-rebound game since Elton Brand (1998 against Fresno State)

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 16, 2014"

2. Run in Transition

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

If you have consistently watched the Huskies play this season, you understand that running in transition has not been a focus of theirs. Oftentimes preferring to focus on the execution of their half-court offense, the Huskies have found easy points very hard to come by. This is one of the reasons why they rank 125th of all Division I teams in field-goal percentage, converting just 45 percent of their field goals.

On many occasions, especially when faced with a 2-3 zone defense, the Huskies waste time holding the ball at the top of the key or by making meaningless passes back and forth before forcing up a low-percentage shot with seconds left on the shot clock.

Duke will be looking to push the basketball and convert as many chances as possible around the rim and with open looks on the perimeter. The Huskies will likely have to adapt to this style of play early in the game in order to keep up. If they can keep up, they have a shot of staying in the game. If not, it will get out of hand early.

3. Convert Easy Opportunities on the Interior

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

Brimah’s 13 of 13 performance from the field last game happened as a result of a concerted effort by Connecticut’s guards driving to the rim, waiting for defense to collapse or step up, and then dumping the ball off to the big man. With the ability of both Brimah and starting forward Kentan Facey to flush down alley-oop opportunities, look for Boatright, Daniel Hamilton and other Huskies to drive to the basket not only looking to score, but to find the big guys down low.

It also sounds like Brimah is tired of hearing about Okafor’s stardom and might have a chip on his shoulder coming into the game.

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Ryan Boatright on Amida Brimah's matchup with Jahlil Okafor. "He's tired of hearing all the hoo-hah about Jahlil."

— Ed Daigneault (@EdDaigneault) December 16, 2014"

Connecticut certainly can’t rely on the three-point ball, as it has shot a terrible 29.5 percent from beyond the arc this season.

4. Be Respectable on the Glass

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

The Huskies struggle to rebound the basketball. It’s a known fact. In their loss to Ivy League opponent Yale, Connecticut was out-rebounded to the tune of 36-25. On the season, the Huskies average 36.3 rebounds per game.

Duke averages 38.3 total rebounds per game so far this year, so it's not elite by any means in that regard. If the Huskies can limit their 12.4 offensive rebounds per game, they will likely be able to stay in the contest.

Connecticut does not need to win the battle on the boards, but it needs to at least make the margin respectable. Its rebounding numbers on the season have been quite odd overall, so it’s hard to know what to expect from the team on a night-in, night-out basis.

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I’m intrigued by UConn’s rebounding numbers. Amida Brimah is fourth on the team (4.9 RPG), but the Huskies are doing fairly well rebounding.

— Tim Fontenault (@Tim_Fontenault) December 17, 2014"

5. Force Duke’s Backcourt to Make Plays

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

I’ve already discussed how talented Okafor is, but his sidekick Amile Jefferson has been very impressive in his own right this season. Shooting an incredible 35 of 49 from the field on the season, the junior averages 9.3 points and 7.9 rebounds per game.

In addition, freshman small forward Justise Winslow has been solid, averaging 12.0 points and 4.4 rebounds per game.

Duke’s backcourt of starters Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones and sixth man Rasheed Sulaimon can make a difference, but keeping the ball out of the interior will only benefit the Huskies, as they will be overmatched at both the power forward and center spots. In addition, if Duke’s starters are able to get Connecticut’s starters in foul trouble, especially in the frontcourt, this game can and will get out of hand quickly since the Huskies are thin at those spots.

It will be tough, but if the Huskies can pull off at least four of these goals, they have a good shot at pulling off the upset tonight.