Perfecting Process Will Turn Manchester United from Fortunate to Formidable

Louis van Gaal often seems to radiate irritation. Usually, there’s very little obvious reason for it. It’s as though there are times when he is furious at the universe for not conforming to his will.

Recently, though, the universe has been conforming to his will. Manchester United did not play especially well at Arsenal, yet found themselves 2-0 up having one shot on target.

They managed only three shots against Southampton—their lowest tally since Opta began collecting records in 2003—but won 2-1.

Against Liverpool on Sunday, they won 3-0 despite the Reds having six clear chances and winning the shot count 19-11.

So the question is, has Van Gaal simply been lucky?

Luck is a part of football. In their book The Numbers Game, David Sally and Chris Anderson make the case that 50 per cent of what determines the outcome in games between sides of roughly equivalent ability is luck. That can be the bounce of the ball, a defender slipping or a refereeing error, but there’s another, less tangible factor.

Take Wayne Rooney’s opening goal on Sunday. The ball rolled back to him as he ran onto it from the edge of the box. Let’s say he’d take that chance six times out of 10 (it was harder than a penalty, but not much).

Shaun Botterill/Getty Images

If Liverpool had a lucky day, it would have been one of the four times when he’d miss. They didn’t. By the same token, Raheem Sterling would probably score that third chance he had seven times out of 10. He didn’t.

In that regard, United got lucky.

However, it’s not quite as simple as that. It’s not Dungeons and Dragons, rolling dice and hoping for the best. There’s a psychological factor. Rooney was confident as he approached that pass. He’s been playing well recently. United have been winning games. Perhaps he even saw Brad Jones start his anticipatory dive, which took him out of the way. The chances of him scoring were probably inflated.

Similarly, when Sterling ran onto that weak back pass, he had the knowledge he’d already been denied twice by David de Gea. Liverpool were 2-0 down. His confidence was probably lower than usual, reducing his chances of taking the chance. De Gea, by contrast, was having a great day in a great season.

Anybody who’s ever played in goal knows there are days when you feel invincible, when every shot seems to hit you. De Gea has had that for about a month now. Sterling took a duff touch before De Gea, fully primed, pounced, and the chance was lost.

Alex Livesey/Getty Images

There are two aspects to how a game is won and lost. There is what happens in the penalty areas—how your forwards take chances at one end, how your defenders and goalkeeper block chances at the other—and there is the process. That is, what happens in between, how many chances and what level you create and how many and what level you allow your opponent to create.

At the moment, United are exceptionally good at what’s going on in the boxes and rather less good at the process.

Is that luck? In part, yes. De Gea will not always be in this form, and neither will Robin van Persie and Rooney. However, there is also a reason they are in form, and that is to do with Van Gaal, his training methods and his personality. He now has his team “forcing the luck,” as he said on Sunday.

With that being said, as he has acknowledged, eventually they need to get the process right. Process is what insulates against bad luck. Control the game sufficiently and the vagaries of form in the penalty areas becomes less relevant.

Van Gaal has spoken of his frustration at United’s distribution, but if that improves and can be allied to similar form in both boxes along with the luck-forcing he seems to have instilled, United suddenly look a formidable side.