Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders: Complete Week 16 Preview for Oakland
The Oakland Raiders (2-12) are two games away from ending another disappointing year. But that doesn't mean the season can't end on a positive note.
For that to happen, they'll have to find a way to solve the defensive puzzle of the surprise playoff contender, the Buffalo Bills (8-6).
The Buffalo offense is nothing to write home about. Kyle Orton was named the starting quarterback in Week 5, and the Bills have gone 6-4 since. Orton has certainly been a major factor in the team's playoff push, but his job has been blatantly clear: Don't make mistakes.
He's the epitome of a game manager. It's worked, but he's not going to win the game on his own. Buffalo's game plan is for the offense to score just enough points and let its defense, which is one of the NFL's best, to take care of the rest.
Oakland's defense will be able to do enough to contain the Buffalo offense. For the Raiders, it's going to come down to the effectiveness of the offense and whether or not it'll be able to consistently move the ball and get into the end zone.
That's a tall order given how the Buffalo defense performed last week against the Green Bay Packers and arguably the league's best offense. The Raiders offense certainly isn't the Green Bay offense. But it's going to be the deciding factor, and Oakland's offense is going to have to find a way to be productive.
Here's the breakdown of Sunday's game and what Oakland has to do to come away with its third win.
Week 15 Recap
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The Raiders were coming off their most impressive performance as they headed into their game against the Kansas City Chiefs. They seemed to have finally figured out a way to play to their own strengths against the San Francisco 49ers, and they started off that way against the Chiefs.
But after the first offensive series, they reverted back to the same ineffective play that they've shown for most of the season.
The offensive play-calling has been inexplicably bad all year, and it was more of the same against Kansas City.
Latavius Murray got his first start, and he once again showed that he could be the answer at running back, as he averaged 4.9 yards per carry. But he only carried the ball 12 times and wasn't given enough opportunities to really make an impact.
The score eventually did get away from Oakland, so it makes some sense that the offense went pass-heavy. But the Raiders stopped running the ball before that.
For a reason that no one besides the coaches know, they instead decided to have Derek Carr throw the ball—a lot. Fifty-six times to be exact. That's too many attempts for any quarterback, but especially for a rookie.
It was a scenario that's been played out far too often. The offense couldn't stay on the field or score points. The defense eventually broke under the pressure, and the opposing offense started to score in bunches.
The Raiders are not the most talented team in the league, but they should have more than two wins. This game was a microcosm of why the team doesn't: The players had opportunities to succeed, but their own coaches got in the way.
This was a winnable game, and a better coaching staff could've capitalized on that. This team is better than the record indicates. The Raiders will play better, but not until a new coaching staff steps in. And that won't be until next year.
News and Notes
2 of 5Stat of the Week: 12
Here's a hypothetical for you: You're an NFL head coach. Your team is within a single score in the second half, and you're playing on the road in one of the league's toughest environments. You have a fresh running back who's averaging nearly five yards a carry. Would you hand him the ball? Would you hand it to him often?
Most of you probably answered "yes" to both of those questions. It seems obvious to everyone. Well, everyone except the Oakland Raiders coaches.
In a close game, they decided to let Latavius Murray, who was averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, run the ball only 12 times. And the excuse that the Kansas City Chiefs were stretching the lead doesn't hold up, because the fact is that they stopped running the ball before that.
This has been a problem all season. But it's clear by now that for some reason, this coaching staff just won't run the ball. As good as the Buffalo Bills defense is, it will give up yards on the ground. We saw this last week, as the Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy averaged 6.5 yards per carry on 15 attempts.
Murray can do the same. It all depends on whether or not the coaches let him.
Tim Brown: Hall of Famer
Is Tim Brown a Hall of Famer? He's not in yet, but the stats certainly show that he should be.
| Career Stats | ||||
| Seasons | Receptions | Yards | Receiving Touchdowns | Pro Bowls |
| 17 | 1,094 | 14,934 | 100 | 9 |
There's no excuse for him not already being in. In an interview with Bleacher Report's Stephen Nelson, Brown himself notes that he should be in, and he doesn't have a good explanation for why he isn't (check out the video above).
He's been eligible for induction since 2009, but he's still waiting. It has to do with the unknown process by which players are selected. What exactly is the criteria?
Another factor is what positions the voters choose to go with. If a receiver is already selected, any other receivers will likely have to wait another year.
It also has a lot to do with the NFL's arbitrary limitation of only 4-8 inductees per year. If a player is Hall of Fame-worthy, why make him wait?
Brown should be in the Hall of Fame, and there's no doubt he'll get in eventually. But making him wait is unreasonable and borders on insulting.
Go Jaguars (and a few other teams)!
It's been obvious for a while, but there's no point in hiding it now: The Raiders' season is over. There are still a couple of games to go, but it's all free agency and the draft from now on.
That means that, as uncomfortable as it is to say, Oakland will actually benefit from a poor performance down the stretch.
It'll also help if other teams do their part.
The Jacksonville Jaguars came away with their third win on Thursday, leaving only three two-win teams in the NFL. The Raiders are jockeying for draft position and are currently in position to pick third. As tough as it is to admit, the team will benefit from finishing even lower in the standings.
The key for Oakland is to select high enough to still be in a position to at least have the option of trading the pick. It's little consolation for the end of this season, but it'll be a blessing next April.
Oakland fans will be rooting for the Raiders these final two weeks, but they might find themselves rooting for the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a little more.
Mack as Good as Advertised
How good has rookie Khalil Mack been? According to Pro Football Focus (via Silver and Black Pride's Levi Damien), he's been the best rookie, and he's been the third-best linebacker overall in the entire league.
Unfortunately, his impressive play has been lost in Oakland's disappointing season. Damien notes that despite Mack's play, fans didn't vote him into the Pro Bowl. He doesn't stand out statistically, particularly when it comes to sacks.
The lack of recognition is disappointing, but it ultimately doesn't mean much. The important part is that Mack has been excellent for the Raiders, and he's shown to be what Oakland was looking for: a building block and leader for the defense.
The Raiders have found a player who can be a stalwart on defense for the next decade, and the accolades will eventually come.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Status |
| Sio Moore | LB | Out for Season |
| Tarell Brown | CB | Out |
| Vincent Brown | WR | Out |
| Chimdi Chekwa | CB | Out |
| Brian Leonhardt | TE | Out |
| Menelik Watson | RT | Out |
| Denarius Moore | WR | Out |
| C.J. Wilson | DE | Questionable |
| D.J. Hayden | CB | Questionable |
| T.J. Carrie | CB | Probable |
| Derek Carr | QB | Probable |
Sio Moore is out for the rest of the season after Oakland placed him on season-ending injured reserve due to a hip injury. It's a disappointing end to a productive season for one of Oakland's few bright spots. His roster spot will go to recently signed cornerback Chance Casey.
Moore finishes the season with 90 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble. He'll be replaced in the starting lineup for the final two games by Ray-Ray Armstrong.
Tarell Brown, who hurt his foot two weeks ago, has been ruled out for Sunday. It was a surprise to see him in action last week, and now the injury has worsened too much to play through.
Brown's absence leaves Carrie and Hayden as the team's starting cornerbacks. Unfortunately, both are also injured. Carrie is dealing with an ankle injury, but he's likely to play.
Hayden, on the other hand, could be a game-time decision. He has a back injury, and those are notoriously difficult to predict. His availability will depend on how his back reacts to workouts leading up to the game.
Watson has officially been ruled out again. This leaves Khalif Barnes, who's had an up-and-down couple of weeks, at right tackle. He was excellent two weeks ago but was pushed around all game last week. He'll have to find a way to be consistent and avoid penalties against Buffalo's impressive pass rush.
Wilson is officially listed as questionable, but he's been a full participant in practice. Barring a setback, he'll play this Sunday.
Carr hurt his thumb against the Chiefs, and it limited him earlier in the week. However, he's made a full recovery, and he'll once again get the start.
Vincent Brown, one of the wide receivers the coaches seem to have a fascination with, has been ruled out. Hopefully, this means more touches for Brice Butler.
The coaches will undoubtedly try to force Kenbrell Thompkins into the mix, but Butler should still get plenty of opportunities to once again show why he shouldn't be any lower than third on the depth chart.
All injury statuses and updates taken from CSNBayArea.com's Scott Bair.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Donald Penn & Khalif Barnes vs. Mario Williams & Jerry Hughes
Last week, Penn and Barnes were on their heels the entire game and were constantly pushed back into their own quarterback. Their job won't be any easier this week against Williams and Hughes, who have combined for 22.5 sacks and five forced fumbles.
The Raiders have shown that they're going to heavily depend on Carr. That means a lot of dropbacks and a lot of opportunities for Williams and Hughes to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. Penn and Barnes have to find a way to be effective—and do so one-on-one.
Carr will be effective if he has the time. But if Williams and Hughes get going, it could turn into a feeding frenzy, and the Oakland quarterback will be what's on the menu.
Latavius Murray vs. Brandon Spikes
Last week, Eddie Lacy totaled 97 yards and a touchdown on only 15 carries. As good as this Buffalo defense is, it will give up yards on the ground, and Murray has the patience, strength and speed to take advantage of that.
Spikes will be looking for Murray all game, and he'll be especially eager to stop the run after last week's performance. Ideally, Oakland will run the ball often. But that won't mean anything if Murray isn't picking up enough yards.
Murray has to average over four yards per attempt. This will soften up the Buffalo defensive front and open up options in the passing game.
It's going to be a tough game for the Raiders offense, but it can still be effective. That has to start with the running game.
Khalil Mack vs. Cordy Glenn & Seantrel Henderson
Even though his stats aren't all that impressive (68 tackles, 4.5 sacks), Mack has proven that he can be extremely disruptive. It should also be noted that Mack has picked up three of those sacks since Week 11. He's starting to figure out how to get to the quarterback more often and bring him down.
This will be crucial against a Bills offense that depends on keeping Kyle Orton upright and away from mistakes. His job isn't to win games; it's to not lose them. But there's a reason why he's a career backup. If he's put in tough situations, he will make mistakes.
Buffalo came off looking solid after last week's win, but Orton's unimpressive play was lost in the celebration. He completed only 14 of his 27 passes for 158 yards. He was also sacked three times and threw an interception.
Mack rushes from both sides, which means he'll be against both Glenn and Henderson. Even if he can't bring Orton down, just getting into the backfield will throw him off his game.
Buffalo's 8-6 record is the product of the defense, not the offense. Mack will have plenty of opportunities to cause havoc against the subpar Bills offense.
Oakland Coverage Teams vs. Buffalo Returners
Buffalo beat Green Bay last week, and it did so without producing a single offensive touchdown. Its only touchdown came on a punt return. Oakland gave up an 81-yard punt return to the Chiefs to open the scoring, and it looked generally weak in coverage on both kickoffs and punts.
The Bills will find ways to manufacture points. Just take a look at last week, when their points came from four field goals, a punt return and a safety. The Raiders have to limit those opportunities, and it begins on special teams.
This is especially important in punt coverage. Marquette King has a league-leading 94 punts, including 11 last week. Given the struggles of the Oakland offense, it's likely he'll be busy once again. It'll be up to the coverage to keep the Buffalo return men from doing any major damage.
X-Factors of the Week: Greg Olson and Tony Sparano
Blaming coaches is a tricky business. But sometimes, their responsibility for a team's struggles is too obvious to ignore. This is the case with Olson, Sparano and the Oakland offense.
It's difficult to understand how it's possible for Olson to not see what everyone else seems to see so clearly. The Raiders have to run the ball a lot more. Doing so will make the entire team better.
Murray should have no fewer that 20 carries against the Bills. And Carr certainly shouldn't drop back to throw 50+ times.
Olson is as good as gone in Oakland, but he still has an opportunity to do something right. Despite Buffalo's daunting defense, the Raiders offense can be successful. It will depend on Olson's willingness to play to his unit's strengths rather than stubbornly trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. On Sunday, the game plan has to be run first, pass second.
Like Olson, Sparano won't be back. But at this point, he has to be aware of how inept the offense is. He has to impose his will as the head coach and do something about the offensive play-calling.
He doesn't want to step on his offensive coordinator's toes. But with two games to go, a 2-12 record and one foot already out the door, what does he have to lose?
Most fans have understandably lost hope in this coaching staff's offensive play-calling. Most fans lost it months ago. But Olson and Sparano have gotten it right a few times. There's some hope that they might get it right again.
Prediction
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The Raiders can beat the Bills. They have the talent to do it. Unfortunately, they have the same coaches they've had all season. This means that the team will face the same problems.
Latavius Murray will get some touches early, and he'll be effective. But the offense will quickly begin to rely too heavily on the pass, disrupting its own rhythm. Murray will slowly be phased out and lose touches to Darren McFadden, and he won't make as much of an impact as he should.
This will play right into Buffalo's strength, which is the pass rush. Derek Carr will be under too much pressure, and the offense won't be able to generate enough plays to put together scoring drives.
The same frustrating cycle will repeat itself. The offense won't be able to stay on the field, the defense will be out there too frequently and the game will slowly get away from Oakland.
Prediction: Buffalo 20, Oakland 10
Unless otherwise noted, all stats taken from ESPN.com.
Share your thoughts and opinions on Twitter @BrianJ_Flores.
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