North Carolina, UCLA, and Unrealistic Expectations

Last season's Tar Heel team was certainly one of the most talented teams college basketball has seen in a long time.

That talent led North Carolina to consecutive Final Four appearances and one of the most lopsided National Championship wins in recent memory (it was never as close as the final score, which wasn't even that close).

Most of that talent is gone now, only to be replaced by one of the top-ranked recruiting classes in the nation.

The expectations are certainly high for the Tar Heels' new class, and the buzz surrounding the upcoming season has the Tar Heels back in contention for another deep run in March.

There's no doubt that UNC has the talent to match up to it's likely Top 10 ranking—Ed Davis would have been a lottery pick in this year's draft, and incoming freshmen John Henson and Dexter Strickland are two of the best players coming into the ACC this year.

The Tar Heels will certainly be present in analysts' early season Final Four discussions, but does this year's UNC really have what it takes to once again compete for a national title, or will they be the victim of unrealistic expectations based on the achievements of recent Tar Heel teams and the predicted success of highly touted (yet unproven) recruits?

Last year's UCLA Bruins started the season with similar expectations.

Like this season's Tar Heel team, they began the year coming off consecutive appearances in the Final Four.

They boasted the nation's top recruiting class (North Carolina's incoming class is ranked as one of the top three classes according to most major recruiting sites).

Like UNC with Davis this year, UCLA had an NBA first-round draft pick returning in Darren Collison.

And, like UNC this season with John Henson, the Bruins had an NBA-ready freshman in Jrue Holiday.

Despite what seemed to be a recipe for sure-fire success last season, UCLA failed to live up to their preseason Top 10 ranking.

That's not to say their season was a disappointment—they finished 26-9 overall with the second-best record in the PAC-10.  But, despite their relatively solid year, they didn't meet their early season expectations, unfair as they were.

The truth of the matter is that there is no guaranteed method for predicting how successful a team will be aside from having a roster full of experienced, proven, NBA-caliber players (like last season's UNC).

Sometimes highly ranked recruiting classes mean instant success for a team.  When Ohio State brought in Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. in 2006, the Buckeyes played in the national title game.

But for every 2006-07 Ohio State, there are several teams (like last season's UCLA) whose top-rated classes take time to find Final Four success.

Making preseason predictions based on anything but what has been proven on a college court leads to young teams having to deal with the stigma of a disappointing season when their season was anything but, despite what the expectations were.

This season's Tar Heel team will certainly start with high expectations, perhaps too high for a young (albeit talented) group of players to live up to.

They look a lot like last year's UCLA in terms of recent success, recruiting pedigree, and returning talent.  UCLA lost two NBA-level players (Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook) to the draft before the start of last season; North Carolina just lost four with Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Wayne Ellington, and Ty Lawson.

Will this year's UNC be last year's UCLA?

The simple answer—maybe, maybe not.

The better question would be why analysts rank UNC so high despite how much experience and talent they lost in one fell swoop after last season's title run.

Next year's Tar Heel team will play their first game ranked in the Top 10 while having only two players who have started more than a few games in a season (Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard, who was redshirted last year).  

A large portion of the team's talent pool will have never played a single minute of college basketball, and many of the team's more experienced players, including Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, and Larry Drew, will have never played more than 20 minutes per game.

The Tar Heels likely starting point guard, Drew, spent last year backing up Bobby Frasor (last season's backup point guard).

And yet, the Tar Heels will begin next season as a Top 10 team.

Understand that this is not a knock on the 2009-10 Tar Heels—they will be a tough matchup for most of the teams in the nation and they will be a serious contender for the ACC title.

However, one has to wonder what their extremely high preseason ranking (something college basketball should just do without) is based upon other than speculation, and whether or not that ranking puts an unrealistic expectation on the team.

If that ranking is based on the same criteria that put unfair expectations on the 2008-09 Bruins, namely recent success and speculative recruiting predictions, expect a relatively successful yet ultimately disappointing season (similar to last year's UCLA) for the reigning national champions.