Duke Basketball: 5 Most Important Games Remaining

After defeating Elon 75-62, Duke is 9-0 on the season and will look to continue the streak Thursday night against Connecticut. Duke has looked dominant at times this season, and the offense was nearly unstoppable in the road win at Wisconsin earlier this month.

Unfortunately for Duke, Wisconsin is the team’s only big-time win to date this season. Michigan State, which the Blue Devils beat earlier, has already lost three games, and UConn’s early struggles have cost Duke a chance at another big-time victory.

Michigan State is likely to improve—it always does—making Duke’s win look better, but for now, Duke has just the one big-time nonconference trophy head. With Duke looking to pace Kentucky as the top teams in the country, it needs all the big-time wins it can get. Kentucky has already defeated two Top 10 teams in Texas and Kansas.

With conference play coming up, Duke will have more chances to beat highly ranked teams. Here are the top five most important games remaining on the Blue Devils’ schedule.

1/25 at St. Johns

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Playing in the New York area is never really a true road game for Duke, due to the strong alumni base in the area. There should be plenty of blue in the crowd at Madison Square Garden for this one, and St. Johns' early-season success will heighten the intensity.

The Red Storm is 8-1 and ranked 20th in the latest AP poll. With their talented guards and shot-blocking center Chris Obekpa, they pose a challenge on both ends of the floor. If they keep up their success, they could end up being better than both UConn and Michigan State.

A win over Duke will strongly bolster any team’s NCAA resume, so the Devils will have to be on their toes for this one. If they come out victorious, they can add to their currently mediocre list of nonconference wins.

1/17 at Louisville

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This is probably the toughest game left on the schedule, as Louisville is currently the No. 4 team in the country. This is the only game between these teams this season, so it holds huge implications in tiebreakers in the ACC standings.

This has the potential to be one of the most exciting games of the year. Duke’s high-octane offense will go up against Louisville’s full-court pressure defense, which could lead to an extremely fast-paced game.

Duke has three ball-handlers who can break the press themselves in Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones and Rasheed Sulaimon. If those three can find the right balance of breaking the pressure but not playing out of control, Duke should be able to play well on offense. The Devils will face a tall task on defense, however, as Montrezl Harrell has a better combination of strength and explosiveness than any player in the country.

If Duke survives this test, it will officially bury the road woes in ACC play from previous seasons.

1/31 at UVA

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As you can see, the month of January will be huge for Duke. In addition to this game and the previous two, Duke plays Miami on January 13 and Pittsburgh on January 19. It travels to Notre Dame just three days prior to taking on UVA in Charlottesville. Playing UVA at the end of that stretch will make for an incredible challenge.

UVA is emerging as a powerhouse in the ACC under coach Tony Bennett. He has successfully implemented the pack-line defense, and the Cavs are currently leading the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 47.4 points per game.

The Cavs focus on forcing deep shots on defense, and it will be interesting to see if Jahlil Okafor can be effective against their style. This game will also feature a great matchup of freakishly athletic left-handed small forwards in Justin Anderson and Justise Winslow.

There is some recent history to this game as UVA beat Duke in the ACC tournament championship game last year after Duke beat the Cavaliers in a close one in Cameron. With Virginia seemingly here to stay, these two teams will be getting used to playing each other in meaningful contests, and a close game here could spark a rivalry.

2/18 vs. UNC and 3/7 at UNC

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The two most important games left for Duke are the same as their two biggest games of every season since they began playing UNC twice a year. This year, the rivalry games were projected to be especially important, as Duke started the year ranked No. 4 and UNC No. 6 in the preseason, but Carolina has already dropped three games and is down to No. 24 in the country.

If UNC is going to jump back up in the rankings, it needs to start taking control of the game in their potential areas of strength. They are not going to be a great shooting team, but Marcus Paige has got to get on track. The team also needs to improve its rebounding, The Tar Heels have a lot of bodies but have been soft on the boards at times, most notably against Butler. 

Regardless of where they are in the rankings, UNC is sure to bring it in both games against Duke. All the games on this list will go a long way to determining Duke’s place in the ACC hierarchy as well as their NCAA tournament seed. The contests with UNC are the only two games that are guaranteed to define the season from the fans’ perspective.