Evaluating Carolina Hurricanes' Chances of Landing Connor McDavid in 2015 Draft

The Carolina Hurricanes' ongoing five-game streak of incapable offense, unfathomably bad luck and, ultimately, losing has sparked an onslaught of apocalyptic forecasts for the remainder of the 2014-15 season ahead.

But this apocalypse, unlike most, could lead to a pot of gold: Connor McDavid, the projected No. 1 pick in next June's 2015 NHL draft who, according to Sam Riches of SB Nation, appears to be one of the best draft-eligible prospects in decades.

At this new low point in the season and perhaps the franchise's history, what are the Hurricanes' odds at landing McDavid six months from now? Actually, pretty slim.

Len Redkoles/Getty Images

The team's odds of making the playoffs now stand at a somewhat less-than-likely 0.24 percent, according to Sports Club Stats. Its odds at finishing 16th and last in the Eastern Conference, meanwhile, have climbed to a juicy 39.2 percent.

If the remaining 53 games of this season go as planned, it would be the club's sixth straight spring without a playoff appearance. The 'Canes have never drafted higher than fifth in that entire time span, either, but this autumn's especially terrible record seemingly foreshadows that 2015 could be the year that pattern is broken.

Math, however, suggests a different story. All optimistic pessimism aside, Carolina's chances in the McDavid derby aren't really too promising.

East Conf. Rank	Odds of 'Canes Finishing There
1st-8th	0.2%
9th	0.3%
10th	0.8%
11th	1.9%
12th	4.0%
13th	8.4%
14th	16.3%
15th	28.8%
16th	39.2%

Based off of Sports Club Stats' data—including over 6 million simulations of the Hurricanes' season from today on—the most likely final point total for this season is 72 points, or a 23-23-7 record from here out.

By comparison, Buffalo finished last in the NHL last season with a mere 52 points. The worst record in every season of the league's modern era has been below 72 points, in fact; Tampa Bay's 30th-place finish with 71 points in 2007-08 was the closest any team has ever come to surpassing that threshold.

Continuing along that theme, there's an 83.48 percent chance that Edmonton will finish with 72 or fewer points (and thus a worse record than Carolina). Six other teams also sport odds greater than 10 percent of doing so.

All things added up, the 'Canes would have just a 2.13 percent chance of finishing last in the NHL with 72 points. Factor in the draft lottery—which gives the last-place team just a 20 percent chance of actually drawing the top selection—and those chances fall to a paltry 0.43 percent.

Even a steady tanking effort down the stretch wouldn't make the situation too rosy. A 19-27-7 record in their remaining 53 games (for 64 total points on the year) would still make their chances at the worst record only 45.37 percent and their odds at picking first overall only 9.07 percent.

Dennis Pajot/Getty Images

The NHL's increased balancing of draft lottery odds last summer—a change that likely angered Buffalo general manager Tim Murray, at the time assuming his team would be a sure bet for last place—is certainly succeeding at its goal of discouraging tanking.

Not the Oilers, not the 'Canes, not any team, no matter how bad, can be confident whatsoever of their individual McDavid odds.

So no matter how long the Hurricanes' losing streak continues, and no matter how brutally empty PNC Arena gets by mid-February, Carolina will always be fighting an unpromising, uphill battle against a plethora of other train-wrecking teams, as well as the NHL front offices, to pull the "McDavid" ball out of the shiny gumball machine.

Enjoy that solace, 'Canes fans.

Mark Jones has covered the Carolina Hurricanes for Bleacher Report since 2009. Visit his profile to read more, or follow him on Twitter.