Loss to Steelers Should Be Final Nail in the Coffin for Falcons Coach Mike Smith
Mike Smith will be fired. It will likely happen at the end of the season. As nice as it was that he was able to help lead the Falcons to back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history back in 2008 and 2009, it's his first two losing seasons that will end his career in Atlanta.
Smith had a legitimate way to show that the team had improved and that he had figured out how to absorb the losses of multiple starters throughout the season. However, poor coaching led to more issues than the injuries did. There's quite a few things that he hasn't been able to figure out as a coach.
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The first of those is how to get wins without Matt Ryan bailing him out at the last second. Being way too conservative on defense while not being able to generate a great pass rush has been a huge hindrance during his entire time in Atlanta.
But inability to self-evaluate, not playing the best 11 players on the field on every play and lack of scheme modification to put players in the spots where they win has truly hurt the Falcons during Smith's tenure. Additionally, a lack of identity has only hindered the Falcons when it comes to bringing in the right talent for Smith.
Same Problems Since 2008 Shows Inability to Self-Evaluate
Stubborn. Unable to change. Unable to evaluate that the same issues keep re-occurring due to coaching failures. Mike Smith has been guilty of all of these. You can't be an NFL head coach and be afraid to make the proper changes in personnel or scheme when things aren't working.
Through the first four games not against teams called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Falcons had a total of one sack. And they were using Jonathan Massaquoi in a minor role despite him being the most effective pass-rusher. Instead, they would have Jonathan Babineaux—a defensive tackle—play the primary role as a defensive end.
Then the minute they let Massaquoi see the majority of the snaps, he performed well. The Falcons have an issue with personnel playing in the wrong spot, and it's been like that throughout the entire season. The Falcons should have been starting Massaquoi at weak-side defensive end from Week 1.
They didn't because they had a misconception of what a defensive end should be in the nickel-based defense. Atlanta needs a new coach to fix the defensive issues. And it doesn't stop at personnel, but scheme has also been a big issue the entire time Smith has been head coach.
Too many soft zones allowed way too many third downs to be converted through Smith's tenure. They've featured a poor pass rush the entire tenure. They haven't developed secondary pass-rushers for John Abraham or used the ones that they did develop. Atlanta needs to figure out how to self-evaluate, and that's not going to happen with Smith as coach.
Failing to Play the Best 11 and Lack of Scheme Modification Are Biggest Issues
Speaking of self-evaluation, if the Falcons were any good at it, they would understand that they have to put guys like Jonathan Massaquoi and Ra'Shede Hageman out there more. Instead, it looks like Mike Smith is acting like a petulant child who got told on for not letting his friend play with his football.
Massaquoi spoke with Vaughn McClure about a lack of playing time, and it looks like he was benched for speaking his mind and telling the truth. When Massaquoi was asked about how little playing time he was getting, it sounds like he understands it less than anyone else does:
""Those questions, I couldn’t even tell you," he said. "I felt like last year, I performed well. We damn near ran the same defense. I don’t know. I guess (Kroy) Biermann was the choice to go into the Green Bay game and execute the rest of the game with him. And he had a great game, too. He had sack. He had a couple tackles. I think he set the edge well."
"
The problem here is that if the Falcons understood how to put their best 11 players on the field, Massaquoi would have seen 40-or-more snaps against the Steelers instead of the zero that he saw. Ra'Shede Hageman would have seen 30-or-more snaps instead of the 13 that he saw.
If the scheme is only calling for one speedy edge-rusher, then the Falcons have to modify the scheme to accommodate their best 11 defenders. Instead, they try to fit square pegs into round holes and hope for the best. If Atlanta's coaches knew how to do their jobs, the Falcons would have won more games.
If they knew how to interact with their players, they would have won more games. If a player goes to the media and says that he is the best and needs playing time at a position where no one else has stepped up, they should have played that player.
Two things would have happened. Either the player balls out and looks like one of the best players on the team and legitimately earns his playing time, or he fails and then they bench him again. Either way, the coaches look like geniuses for at least trying every option.
Snap counts for the Steelers game are courtesy Pro Football Focus.
Lack of Identity Made It Tougher for Thomas Dimitroff to Bring in Personnel
The biggest thing the Atlanta Falcons had under the early Mike Smith and Thomas Dimitroff years was an identity. They were a smashmouth running game with a bend-but-don't break defense. However, in 2010, the Falcons got destroyed against the Packers in the playoffs when the defense broke to the tune of 48 points as the Atlanta offense scored just 21.
A lack of explosion was missing from the offensive scheme and talent. So the Falcons went out and got Julio Jones in the first round of the draft and traded away multiple picks to do so. The problem is that they didn't use Jones as a deep threat until after Mike Mularkey got fired outside of two plays.
The Falcons didn't re-establish an offensive identity until 2014, when they decided to be a team that went deep quite often, use stick-and-screen passes and attack the seams down the middle. The running game is still a bit of a mess, but it looks like they are at least trying to have a power running game.
It's still taken way too long to establish this identity. Additionally, on defense, the bend-but-don't-break identity was usurped for one that doesn't allow any clarification of personnel. The Falcons don't run a simple 4-3 scheme with 4-2-5 nickel like they used to.
They run a scheme that has no true base front with multiple different nickel packages that has players aligning in the improper spots. If Smith was a good head coach, he would have fixed the scheme by now. Because of the lack of identity, bringing in personnel makes it tougher.
With a certain identity of explosion on offense, the Falcons know that they have to have fast, game-breaking wide receivers and running backs who can take it to the house at any point. With a multiple, heavy-blitzing scheme, the Falcons know that they should draft for roles instead of actual positions.
Instead, they don't have a true identity on either offense or defense, and it has hurt the talent acquisition tremendously. With a real vision and identity for the Falcons, they could take that next step into becoming a Super Bowl team once again.
Without Matt Ryan to Bail Him out, Atlanta Doesn't Win as Many Games
When it comes to identity, the Falcons begin and end with Matt Ryan. Not Mike Smith. Not Thomas Dimitroff. Ryan has been the guy who's bailed out Smith's coaching career. According to Pro Football Reference, Ryan has 17 fourth-quarter comebacks and 24 game-winning drives during the last seven years.
Take out those 17 comebacks and Mike Smith's 65-45 record becomes a 48-45 record—.516 winning percentage. Take out the 24 game-winning drives and Smith's record is a 41-45 record—.476 winning percentage. So is Smith a good head coach, or has Ryan made him look better than he is?
Honestly, it's the latter. The Falcons switch from an aggressive attacking offense early in games once they get the lead into a conservative, ball control, "play not to lose" offense after they are up by a touchdown or two. And that's unacceptable.
That's why Ryan has to bail out Smith late. The defense then allows late scores, and then Smith has to hope for Ryan to have his magic on the final drive. Atlanta rode this formula to 13 wins in both 2010 and 2012. Ryan had the magic then. Ryan may not have the magic to do that every single year or game.
But Smith's record has been artificially inflated by his quarterback bailing him out. Hopefully, the new head coach in Atlanta will be more aggressive than how the Falcons have been. They need someone who will step on opposing teams' throats and finish them early.
In the end, it's just time for a change. Whether it's that the message that has gotten stale or the issues that he's always had got figured out by opposing teams and finally exploited, the Falcons need someone who can lead them to the promised land.
They need someone who can win without having to rely on Matt Ryan bailing him out. They need someone who plays an aggressive defense and offensive scheme at all times. They need someone who is willing to self-evaluate their real issues.
They need someone who is going to put the 11 most talented players on the field at all times while also scheming ways to make them look even better than they are. Most importantly, the Falcons need a coach who has an identity all of his own.
They need someone who isn't known as a Mr. Nice Guy, but is still someone who players love. They need someone who understands that "Good is the enemy of great." And finally, they need someone who wants to win at all costs and will have his players going for a win instead of someone who plays not to lose.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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