Golden State Warriors Should Avoid Collateral Damage of Signing Ray Allen
Between their 14-game winning streak and Stephen Curry's MVP-caliber play, the 19-2 Golden State Warriors have quickly inserted themselves into the title conversation just a month and some change into head coach Steve Kerr's first season at the helm.
So it's only natural to expect a coveted free agent like Ray Allen to take notice as he mulls a potential return to the NBA at age 39.
The Warriors certainly haven't forgotten about him.
General manager Bob Myers admitted on Thursday to 95.7 FM The Game that Golden State had expressed interest to Allen's camp. Via CSNBayArea.com, he added that, "it's uncertain as to what Ray wants to do."
It's also uncertain just how interested the Warriors are.
"Here's the problem," Myers said. "We don't have enough minutes as it is, so it's just a question of chemistry."
In addition to the heavy minutes starters Curry and Klay Thompson demand in the backcourt, Kerr also has to find playing time for Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston at those forward and guard spots. Upon power forward David Lee's return, Draymond Green may have to spend less time at the 4 and more time at the 3—further complicating the crowded wing rotation.
Though Allen could theoretically usurp the 13.6 minutes per game currently going to Leandro Barbosa, that's nearly half the playing time he earned with the Miami Heat a season ago. That means he'd likely siphon at least 12 more minutes away from others—potentially more as the rotation shortens during the postseason.
There's no getting around the temptation to add an iconic shooter who's made more three-pointers than anyone in league history. Two-time champions with a penchant for clutch heroics are few and far between.
And there's little doubt Allen would earn his share of playing time, which—in one sense—is precisely the problem.
What happens when guys like Iguodala and Livingston see their roles shrink? Already relegated to reserve gigs in spite of their starting pedigree, the prospect of further marginalization could ruffle feathers and disrupt an already-delicate balance.
Barring a serious injury that would create a need for Allen, it's hard to see his addition ending well for everyone involved. Virtual players may deal with that kind of thing in video games, but damaged chemistry is a hazard in real life. When guys stop buying in, it shows on the court.
The Warriors can't risk that, not with things going so unbelievably well at the moment.
They're already making 37.6 percent of their three-point attempts, which is tied for the league's fourth-best mark according to TeamRankings.com. And with a respectable 25.1 long-range attempts per contest, it's hard to argue this team really needs another marksman.
Even if Allen marginally improved an offense that currently ranks sixth in efficiency (with 107.3 points per 100 possessions according to Hollinger Team Stats), it's less clear that he'd be of much value to a defense that's been exceptional so far. Allowing just 94.5 points per 100 possessions, the Warriors lead the league in defensive efficiency, and that has a lot to do with personnel like Iguodala and Livingston—the same guys who stand to lose the most from Allen's addition.
Per TeamRankings.com, Golden State's opponents are only making 30.5 percent of their three-point attempts (fourth best league-wide) while scoring just 19.3 points per contest via three-pointers (fifth best league-wide). Maintaining that kind of pressure on the perimeter is a tall order for a guy in his 19th season. That three-point stroke may be immortal, but lateral quickness rarely is.
With their chemistry and defense already in championship form, the Warriors would have to think long and hard about any tinkering, even when it comes to an apparent no-brainer addition like Allen.
The 10-time All-Star is also giving his future plenty of thought. Earlier this month, ESPN Radio's Ryen Russillo tweeted that he's "Hearing Ray Allen is telling teams 'talk to me in January' [and] will make a decision in February."
In November, ESPN the Magazine's Chris Broussard noted the range of suitors who've likely made Allen's decision such a difficult one.
While none of those teams has a desperate need for Allen, all but San Antonio could almost certainly use another shooter off the bench.
Joining former teammate and four-time MVP LeBron James in Cleveland is the safe bet. While the Cavaliers haven't been as dominant as Golden State in the early going, they remain among two or three teams favored to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
By the time Allen's ready to make a decision, the Cavaliers will have likely developed more of a rhythm with one another. They may not be better than the Warriors, but they may well be the more attractive destination—and a better fit.
"Until he signs, that's going to be a target for everybody," Cavs general manager David Griffin told reporters in September. "Ray is someone who fits us as a shooter. His championship pedigree fits us at a really high level. With James [Jones], Mike [Miller] and LeBron here, I think he'd feel comfortable with our group."
It might not be a fairy-tale ending, but it probably makes more sense than trying to make things work on the West Coast.
No one will fault the Warriors for doing their due diligence. In a world where injuries strike without warning, it would be irresponsible not to.
But sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made—especially when your team holds the league's best record and shows no sign of slowing down.
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