UFC Fight Night 58 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC is closing out its 2014 in Brazil with UFC Fight Night 58. Live on Saturday, the card boasts a main event with a former UFC champion and a rising middleweight contender.
Former light heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida throws down with CB Dollaway in the main event, while former bantamweight champ Renan Barao meets Mitch Gagnon in the co-main event. Those two fights head up an interesting card, and before that we have some intriguing prelims.
Last weekend featured a doubleheader, and despite a strong showing at The Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale, I went just .500 with UFC on Fox 13. I look to close out the year with a strong showing in order to raise my winning percentage.
Without further ado, here are the preliminary card predictions for UFC Fight Night 58.
2014 Riley's Record: 175-106
Last Event: TUF 20 Finale and UFC on Fox 13 (8-6)
Vitor Miranda vs. Jake Collier
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First up we have the middleweights, as TUF Brazil 3 finalist Vitor Miranda makes a drop in weight class to welcome RFA veteran Jake Collier to the UFC.
Collier, a top middleweight prospect, is coming into the UFC on the heels of a five-fight win streak. Mostly known to wrestle, he has good ground strikes that he mixes up with underrated submission ability, leading to seven of his eight wins being finishes.
In addition to taking a decision over WSOF veteran Cully Butterfield, Collier choked out Gabriel Checco in his most recent fight in RFA. That became his golden ticket to getting to the UFC, where he now seeks to start his run.
As for Miranda, we were first introduced to him as a striking coach on Team Nogueira during Season 2 of TUF Brazil. That background shows Miranda's strength as a striker, as he has six wins via knockout.
We were re-introduced to Miranda on TUF Brazil 3, where he showed great promise in the heavyweight tournament, making it all the way to the finals. However, he was outpointed by Antonio Carlos Jr., which prompted his move to 185.
On the feet, the Brazilian is going to be superior with his kicks and punches. However, Collier is good at closing the distance and should be able to make his opponent uncomfortable with his wrestling.
Prediction: Collier def. Miranda via submission
Marcio Alexandre vs. Tim Means
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Next up are the lightweights, as TUF Brazil 3 finalist Marcio Alexandre looks to snag his first UFC win against two-stint vet Tim Means.
Means is a striker who has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Carlos Condit. He is an aggressive, in-your-face fighter with good distance strikes, as well as clinch striking.
His first UFC stint saw him go 2-2, relegating him to the regional scene to pick up some momentum. There he went 2-0 before returning to the UFC on late notice to face Neil Magny and defeat Hernani Perpetuo.
Alexandre is similarly a striker, which should be evident in his nickname, "Lyoto." He is a heavy-handed distance striker who will compete aggressively in spurts, finishing 10 of his 12 wins via knockout.
He made it all the way to the finals of TUF Brazil 3 but was choked out by season winner Warlley Alves at the live finale. It was the first blemish on his record, as he was 12-0 prior to that bout.
The difference in talent between the Brazilian regional scene and the UFC is huge. That's why Alexandre will struggle here, as Means is highly experienced and skilled, which will bring him a win here.
Prediction: Means def. Alexandre via decision
Leandro Issa vs. Ulka Sasaki
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Leading things off on the Fox Sports prelims are the bantamweights, as rising Japanese prospect Yuta "Ulka" Sasaki takes on fellow grappler Leandro Issa of Brazil.
Issa, though Brazilian, spends his time training with Evolve MMA in the South Pacific, which explains why he cut his teeth in One FC. He is a submission specialist, with eight of his 13 career wins coming by way of tapout.
His One FC tenure was extremely successful, as he owns wins over Soo Chul Kim, Masakazu Imanari and Yusup Saadulaev over there. However, he has seen mixed results in the UFC thus far, getting choked out by Russell Doane in his debut before snagging a win in his sophomore effort over Tuerxun Jumabieke.
Sasaki, on the other hand, is one of the top prospects in the sport at 135 pounds. With a record of 18-1-2, he has dominated the competition with his grappling prowess, which has seen him finish half of his opponents via submission.
He is looking to build on a dominating performance in his UFC debut, where it took him just over a minute to ground Roland Delorme and tap him out. That type of blitzkrieg performance has fans salivating over his potential in the Octagon.
This has the potential to be a barnburner on the ground, as both men are skilled performers on the mat. However, the Japanese fighter looks to have more upside and should outhustle Issa in his home country.
Prediction: Sasaki def. Issa via submission
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Hacran Dias vs. Darren Elkins
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Next up we have the featherweights, as contender Darren Elkins looks to move one step closer to the title picture against scrappy Brazilian Hacran Dias.
Dias is a Nova Uniao rep whose style is a trademark of the gym, as he has sufficient striking to go along with a heavy top game on the ground. He does his best work on the mat, as he achieves takedowns well before using ground-and-pound and submission attempts to wear on his opponents.
His career in the UFC started off with a bang, as he won his debut against top fighter Iuri Alcantara. However, two straight fights against top wrestlers Nik Lentz and Ricardo Lamas saw him drop decisions, which may be the blueprint for failure here.
Elkins is a power wrestler who, while his striking has improved, mostly looks for takedowns from bell to bell. There is nothing flashy about his style, as he grinds on guys and tires them out quickly with his relentless pace.
His drop to featherweight has been a great career move, as he has only lost to Jeremy Stephens and Chad Mendes at the weight. Other than that, he has been dominant, beating the likes of Hatsu Hioki, Diego Brandao and Lucas Martins.
Dias is definitely an underrated fighter, but his third straight fight against a top wrestler is not a good look for him. We saw what happened against Lentz and Lamas, and that result will not change much against Elkins here.
Prediction: Elkins def. Dias via decision
Tom Niinimaki vs. Renato Carneiro
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Up next is a featherweight bout, as Finland's Tom Niinimaki looks to save his job against late replacement Brazilian newcomer Renato Carneiro. He fills in for Rony Jason, who was injured late into the lead-up of this fight.
Niinimaki is a grappler who proved himself to be one of the best 145ers on the European circuit. Not only that, but he is a hellacious finisher, putting away 15 opponents by knockout or submission.
His UFC career started off promising, as he bested Rani Yahya by decision. However, he has fallen via submission in his last two outings to Niklas Backstrom and Chas Skelly, putting his UFC career in jeopardy here.
As for Carneiro, the undefeated Brazilian is a Constrictor Team member and teammate of Yahya, the man Niinimaki beat in his debut. He is undefeated with one draw, as the submission artist has beaten the likes of UFC veteran Iliarde Santos and Joao Luiz Nogueira.
He is known for his rear-naked choke and overall grappling prowess, which makes this is another tough matchup for Niinimaki. Though he has beaten the more experienced teammate of Carneiro, he still finds himself against a top prospect.
The short notice will not do Carneiro any favors, though. Niinimaki is likely superior on the feet and can defend the smaller fighter's takedowns en route to a competitive decision.
Prediction: Niinimaki def. Carneiro via decision
Marcos Rogerio vs. Igor Pokrajac
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Capping off the prelims are the light heavyweights, as TUF Brazil 3 vet Marcos Rogerio looks to hand Croatian striker Igor Pokrajac his walking papers.
Rogerio is a striker who has ferociously put down nine of his 12 victims via knockout. However, he has a solid submission game to round out his arsenal.
His time on TUF saw him reach the semifinals in a tough bracket. After tapping out Bellator tournament vet and massive heavyweight Thiago Santos to get into the house, Rogerio decisioned Jollyson Francisco in the quarterfinals before succumbing to a submission at the hands of eventual winner Antonio Carlos Jr. All of that was followed by a 20-second walloping of Richardson Moreira in the finale, which earned Rogerio his spot.
As for Pokrajac, the Croatian kickboxer finds his tenure, dating back to 2009, in danger. Though an exciting fighter, he has failed to win in his last four and could be on his last leg here.
He has lost three and took a no-contest in that four-fight span, which would have been a loss as well had Joey Beltran not been flagged on a drug test. He has been tapped out by Vinny Magalhaes, decisioned by Ryan Jimmo and knocked out by Rafael Cavalcante, which shows that The Duke needs a win in the biggest way here.
I have never been high on Pokrajac, though I do appreciate his entertainment value. However, I do like Rogerio's skill set and ability to finish, which may come with his hands or on the ground with his superior grappling.
Prediction: Rogerio def. Pokrajac via submission
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