NFL Playoff Scenarios 2014-15: AFC, NFC Picture, Wild-Card Odds Before Week 15
Week 15 will finally put aspects of the blurry NFL playoff picture into focus.
Three AFC clubs can clinch a division title with a victory on Sunday. The AFC North and wild-card spots will remain a mess, but three out of six isn't bad, right?
Out in the NFC, nothing will get wrapped up. No team holds a division lead larger than a game, and three franchises are neck-and-neck for a pair of wild-card bids. Yet fewer contenders exist, and one big name faces possible elimination on Sunday.
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Here's the updated playoff picture entering Week 15, accompanied by playoff odds via Football Outsiders' Mike Harris. The projections employ the site's Defense-adjusted Value over Average (DVOA), a metric which measures performance against a normalized opposition by adjusting for strength of schedule.
AFC Playoff Picture
| 1 | New England Patriots (10-3) | 97.4 | 2.3 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (10-3) | 99.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts (9-4) | 98.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) | 17.8 | 32.9 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) | 39.4 | 26.2 |
| 6 | San Diego Chargers (8-5) | 0.2 | 25.6 |
| Baltimore Ravens (8-5) | 41.8 | 38.7 | |
| Houston Texans (7-6) | 1.7 | 11.1 | |
| Miami Dolphins (7-6) | 2.2 | 18.8 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) | 0.0 | 35.9 | |
| Buffalo Bills (7-6) | 0.4 | 4.6 | |
| Cleveland Browns (7-6) | 0.9 | 3.4 |
Welcome to the AFC North, home of mass chaos.
Week 14's biggest loser, the Cincinnati Bengals suffered a 42-21 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They relinquished 543 total yards to their rivals, including 235 to Le'Veon Bell.
Per the team's official Twitter page, Ben Roethlisberger marveled at his running back's sensational performance.
Although they still sport a half-game lead over the Steelers and Baltimore Ravens—who rattled off a massive win over the wild-card competitor Miami Dolphins—the Bengals hold the division's worst point differential at minus-eight, and only three defenses allow more total yards.
A year after collecting 114 tackles, linebacker Vontaze Burfict struggled mightily during an injury-plagued season, compiling 15 tackles in five games. The team can no longer hold out hope of the 24-year-old rebounding after placing him on the injured reserved with a knee injury. The team reported the blow.
While Pittsburgh can storm ahead with a win over the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati will stay in its division. The Cleveland Browns came narrowly shy of pinning the entire division at eight wins apiece, but they can stay alive by knocking off the Bengals this weekend.
They'll do so with Johnny Manziel under center. According to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer, the Browns will finally make the much-anticipated quarterback switch.
Quite frankly, he can't play any worse than Brian Hoyer, who threw no touchdowns and seven interceptions during the last three games. Cleveland is gasping for breath after dropping three of its last four, escaping with a last-second win over Atlanta due to some questionable clock management from Mike Smith.
The Browns and Bengals are the weaker of the AFC North contenders, but one will exit Week 15 with a brighter outlook.
Elsewhere, the top contenders painted a clearer portrait with Week 14 victories. Brandishing a three-game lead with as many games left, the New England Patriots all but have the AFC East wrapped up.
Each holding two-game leads, the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts can finish the job by slaying their top threats. The Colts host the Houston Texans, and the Broncos will travel to San Diego to face the Chargers, who would descend into a crowded wild-card waiting room with another loss.
NFC Playoff Picture
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals (10-3) | 47.5 | 46.8 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers (10-3) | 71.6 | 25.2 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) | 74.9 | 4.3 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons (5-8) | 37.5 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (9-4) | 52.6 | 41.9 |
| 6 | Detroit Lions (9-4) | 28.4 | 48.3 |
| Dallas Cowboys (9-4) | 25.1 | 31.7 | |
| San Francisco 49ers (7-6) | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
| St. Louis Rams (6-7) | 0.0 | 0.1 | |
| New Orleans Saints (5-8) | 49.5 | 0.0 | |
| Carolina Panthers (4-8-1) | 13.1 | 0.0 |
It's official: The NFC South champion will not wield a winning record.
The Falcons and New Orleans Saints made sure of it by losing in Week 11. At least the Falcons had an excuse, losing by six points to the Green Bay Packers. At Lambeau, no less.
Over the last four games, Matt Ryan has now averaged 319.3 passing yards per contest with nine touchdowns. He now ranks fifth with 3,802 yards through the air, but the Falcons' league-worst defense has torpedoed them to 5-8.
Sorry, make that a first-place 5-8. All because the Saints unfathomably threw up a stinker at home against the Carolina Panthers, who are back in contention with four victories. Given a great chance to surpass Atlanta, a usually elite offense instead accumulated 4.6 yards per play.
Drew Brees and Co. should rebound to close the season. Ranked No. 21 in yards allowed, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are by far the Saints' toughest remaining opponent on that end. Then again, Carolina ranked outside the top 20 before Sunday.
Elsewhere, the list of contenders dwindled to six teams jousting for the other five spots. The San Francisco 49ers are still technically alive, but the Grim Reaper is waiting at the doorstep after an embarrassing loss to the Oakland Raiders.
In perhaps his final days as head coach, Jim Harbaugh refuses to yield, courtesy of the team's Twitter account.
Since their Week 8 bye, San Francisco is 3-3 with a minus-17 point differential. Out of those six opponents, only the Seattle Seahawks own a winning record, and they can put their rivals out of their misery by completing the season sweep on Sunday.
It sure seems likely. The last time they met, the 49ers mustered just 164 total yards. Now the venue shifts to CenturyLink Field, where the Seahawks have lost twice during the past three years.
While the St. Louis Rams remain technically alive by a slight margin, their real role is that of the pesky spoiler. By exposing the overachieving Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night, Jeff Fisher's surging squad can send Arizona into disarray, from No. 1 seed to clawing just to stay in the playoffs.
The Cardinals are averaging 13 points per game since losing Carson Palmer, and the Rams are riding back-to-back shutouts. While the records paint the Rams as the underdogs, they're actually favored to win, per Odds Shark.
Such a result would make Sunday all the more interesting, especially for the Seahawks and Packers.
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