Why Beating Roma Will Wipe Champions League Slate for Manchester City

Manchester City completed a full training session at their new City Football Academy on Tuesday before flying out to Rome for their final Group E match in this season’s Champions League, with qualification to the last 16 out of their hands.

They face Roma in the Stadio Olimpico on Wednesday with a chance of going through, despite winning just one of their opening five matches in Europe’s premier competition this season, but they must rely on Bayern Munich taking points off CSKA Moscow.

Scott Heppell/Associated Press

If CSKA win against Bayern, who have already qualified as group winners, City’s efforts in Rome are meaningless. The Russians have a better head-to-head record against City, and that is the primary differentiator when two clubs finish on the same points.

A score draw against Roma would be good enough to see City progress, if CSKA Moscow lose in Munich against Bayern, but it’s unlikely Manuel Pellegrini’s side will be considering this match anything other than a must-win.

Lose the game in Rome, and City are definitely out at the group stage for the third time in four campaigns. They must look to take all three points and have faith that Pep Guardiola’s side will go out to win their match against CSKA.

"

A reminder of the 11 teams that can breathe easy tonight, having already reached the #UCL last 16... pic.twitter.com/F2hrQztd3M

— Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) December 9, 2014"

In truth, City are yet to play well in this season’s competition, but two late Sergio Aguero goals in their last match, which gave them a 3-2 win over Bayern at the Etihad, looks to have kick-started their season.

Their win over Everton on Saturday, although somewhat unconvincing, was their fifth straight win in all competitions. After struggling prior to the last round of international matches, they have now hit something close to decent form.

Their recent wins away at Southampton and Sunderland, in particular, saw a return to the quick passing and high-intensity pressing game that defined their Premier League and league cup-winning campaign.

Jon Super/Associated Press

However, they now face arguably the biggest moment in their Champions League history, and City have to approach the match with relish. Go through and their miserable campaign thus far will be forgotten.

Too often in this competition, though, City have looked overwhelmed, unable to produce their best football for sustained periods. It has become something of an epidemic this season, with each of their five group games so far hugely disappointing in terms of performance level.

And with Aguero missing due to a knee injury sustained in the early stages of the weekend match with Everton, City are without their 19-goal striker who has carried them in recent weeks. Yaya Toure will also be missing through suspension.

But David Silva and Vincent Kompany trained with the first team on Tuesday and are set to play some part in the game. It would be a huge boost for Pellegrini if he were able to call upon two of his best players given the loss of Aguero and Toure.

Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

This is the biggest game of City's season so far. The club's owners, who have invested heavily in every aspect of the club since their takeover in 2008, crave Champions League success and failure to move beyond the group stage, after finally achieving that last season, would signify damaging regression.

They need a win, and the inhibited football they've managed so far is unlikely to deliver the three points they crave. They must use the confidence boost gained from their late show against Bayern to kick start their Champions League form which has floundered this season and for much of their three previous campaigns. 

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2014-15 season. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter: @RobPollard.