Serie A: The Situation Italy's European Representatives Face on Matchday 6
This week will be judgement day for the six Serie A clubs competing in European competition this season.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, the league's Champions League representatives—Juventus and Roma—will face stiff opposition with a place in the knockout stages on the line. In spite of the quality of their opponents, there is room for optimism. Both games will be played at home, and both teams control their own destiny.
Thursday will be the moment of truth No. 2 for the peninsula's four Europa League representatives. As with the Champions League clubs, Napoli and Torino control their own destinies. The other two Italian teams, Fiorentina and Inter, have the chance to relax with their conveyance to the knockout rounds assured.
In this article, we'll break down just what each of these six teams faces going into the group stage finale and analyze just what will be needed to get them through.
How will the Serie A fare? Read on and find out.
Juventus
1 of 6
Juventus advances as group winner IF...
Juventus defeats Atletico Madrid by two or more goals
Juventus advances as group runner-up IF...
Juventus defeats Atletico Madrid by one goal
OR
Juventus and Atletico Madrid draw
OR
Olympiakos fails to defeat Malmo
Juventus drops to Europa League IF...
Juventus loses to Atletico Madrid AND Olympiakos defeats Malmo
Atletico Madrid's 4-0 victory over Olympiakos at the Estadio Vicente Calderon two weeks ago was important to Juventus in two ways.
First and most obvious, it gave Juve a three-point lead over the Greek champions. Not only did it set up a situation where Juve can advance on a draw, it also put a massive amount of pressure on Olympiakos, who must win its game against Malmo in order to have any chance of advancing.
The second, and more subtle, reason that last week's result in Madrid was important is that it gave Malmo something to play for in Piraeus. If the Swedish champions manage to win, they will be level on points with Olympiakos and move into Europa League position on the strength of two victories against the Greeks.
The kind of prize money playing in the Europa knockout league would bring wouldn't be something to sneeze at for a smaller club like Malmo, and it will be something the Swedes will want to chase.
Of course, Juve would rather make that game moot in terms of its own passage by securing a result. The Old Lady is quite evenly matched with Atletico Madrid, and the loss at the Calderon in October was largely the result of a tactical mistake by Massimiliano Allegri.
Juve dominated possession in Madrid. That played directly into the hands of the Spanish champions, who rely on devastating counterattacks to break their opposition.
In spite of that, the last 15 minutes of the game was a harrowing time for Diego Simeone's men. Allegri switched from a 3-5-2 to a 4-3-3, and the Bianconeri surged forward, nearly managing an equalizer when Carlos Tevez was denied point blank by Miguel Angel Moya.
Two months later, Allegri has ditched the 3-5-2 formation entirely, shifting to a 4-3-1-2 that can better handle Atletico's wing players and allows for more dynamism in attack. What remains to be seen is whether he makes one key tactical move.
The model for such a move comes from a decision made last season by his predecessor, Antonio Conte.
Last January, in a match between first-place Juve and second-placed—and then-unbeaten—Roma, Conte ceded possession to Rudi Garcia's side. The decision robbed the Giallorossi of their greatest weapon—the counterattack.
Forced to play with possession, they couldn't penetrate Juve's excellent defense. Juve, on the other hand, ran its own counters to great effect. The end result was a 3-0 Juve victory. It was easily the tactical masterstroke of Conte's career.
Such a decision would give Juve a very good chance not only to advance but to gain the two-goal win that would put the Italian champions through as group winners.
A draw would put both teams through, but it isn't in Simeone's nature to settle for a tie. The game is likely to be spirited.
Juve has a decent chance to win the group, and it's even more likely that it gets the result needed to go through. That, of course, is what was said last year when the Bianconeri faced Galatasaray needing only a draw to go through.
That controversial game, played over two days after heavy snowfall in Istanbul, saw Juve fall 1-0 and drop to the Europa League.
Such a result would be unacceptable a second time. Expect a motivated Juve side to get through one way or the other.
Roma
2 of 6
Roma advances as group runner-up IF...
Roma defeats Manchester City
OR
Roma vs. Man City ends in 0-0 draw AND CSKA Moscow loses to Bayern Munich
OR
Roma draws Man City AND CSKA draws Bayern
Roma drops to Europa League IF...
Manchester City defeats Roma AND CSKA Moscow loses to Bayern Munich
OR
Roma vs. Man City ends in a draw 1-1 or higher AND CSKA fails to defeat to Bayern
Roma is eliminated from Europe IF...
Manchester City defeats Roma AND CSKA Moscow does not lose to Bayern Munich
Secondary tiebreakers could play a massive role in deciding the runner-up of Group E.
The simplest situation will come if there is a winner between Roma and Manchester City at the Stadio Olimpico. Roma has claimed four points in the head-to-head matches with CSKA Moscow, which means that the capital club would go through with a win regardless of whether the Russians pull off an upset at the Allianz Arena.
If the game in Rome ends in a draw, it will be time to get out the scratch paper.
If the game ends goalless and CSKA loses to Bayern, Roma would go through over City on the tiebreaker of head-to-head away goals.
If the game ends in any draw and CSKA manages to hold the German giants in Bavaria, the three teams would be deadlocked at six points. Second place would then be determined through a miniature table based on the matches played between the three sides.
Roma would win this—the Italians have a superior head-to-head record than CSKA, who in turn has a superior head-to-head record than City.
If CSKA loses—a distinct possibility even though the game is a dead rubber for Bayern—and the game in Rome ends in any sort of scoring draw, the capital club is out of the Champions League and into the Europa.
City would advance by virtue of either head-to-head away goals or, in the case of a 1-1 draw, overall goal differential—the sixth tiebreaker down.
There remains a remote possibility that Roma will be left out of Europe entirely—an eventuality that would come to pass if the Italians lose and CSKA manages a shock win. With the Russian champions playing in Munich, that seems a rare possibility, but anything can happen in this game.
The best and easiest way to assure passage is to win. Roma looked good at the Etihad in October, outplaying the Eastlands club for long stretches. The English champions are also looking at a crisis up front with Sergio Aguero out injured and Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic less than 100 percent fit.
This is the kind of game that could say worlds about Roma's character, which over the last few seasons has been called into question after repeated mental breakdowns.
Rudi Garcia rested Francesco Totti on Sunday against Sassuolo and gave other key players like Radja Nainggolan and Gervinho limited runs.
Its defense is as banged up as City's forwards, but it is well within Roma's power to get the result the club needs to advance, or to at least play in the Europa League—especially with Bayern likely eliminating CSKA from the equation.
Torino
3 of 6
Torino advances as group winner IF...
Torino defeats Copenhagen AND Brugge fails to defeat HJK
Torino advances as group runner up IF...
Torino defeats Copenhagen AND Brugge defeats HJK
OR
Torino draws Copenhagen
OR
HJK fails to defeat Brugge
Torino is eliminated IF...
Torino loses to Copenhagen AND HJK defeats Brugge
Had Torino won its home match against Brugge two weeks ago, the Italian side would be through to the knockout rounds. But after a dull draw, the Granata could find themselves anywhere from top of the group to out of the competition.
The Granata do control their own fate. Victory at Parken Stadium ensures their passage, though whether they go through as winners or runners-up will depend on what Club Brugge, a point above them in the table, does in its home match against Finnish side HJK.
If the Belgians win their game, the outcome in Copenhagen is meaningless for the purposes of simple advancement. If Brugge loses, however, Torino will need a point to get through. In the case of a tie with HJK on nine points, the Italians will go through by virtue of head-to-head goal difference where they hold a plus-1 advantage.
Victory is possible in Copenhagen, but il Toro's 1-0 home win against the Danish side in October only came by virtue of a Fabio Quagliarella penalty deep in stoppage time. Copenhagen isn't playing for anything but can step up and play spoiler; the Danes also have a decent record against Italian sides at home—they held Juventus to a 1-1 draw here in the group opener last term.
The sticking point for HJK is beating Brugge—a difficult task, especially considering the fact that the Finns were dismantled by the Belgians 3-0 at home.
Torino should qualify in some way—but given the want of offense and HJK's desperation, it's far from a slam dunk.
Inter
4 of 6
Three wins and two draws have been enough to put Inter six points up on the nearest competition in mediocre Group F. The top spot locked in, the game against Quarabag in Azerbaijan doesn't mean anything for Inter.
The only interest in this game will be in whether returning coach Roberto Mancini plays his top starting XI to test them or whether he uses a game with no consequence to play with his reserves.
Napoli
5 of 6
Napoli advances as group winner IF...
Napoli defeats Slovan Bratislava
OR
Napoli draws Slovan AND Young Boys and Sparta Prague draw
Napoli advances as group runner-up IF...
Napoli loses to Slovan Bratislava
OR
Napoli draws Slovan Bratislava AND either Sparta Prague or Young Boys win
Napoli has head-to-head tiebreakers against both Sparta Prague and Young Boys, so regardless of the results on Thursday, the side will advance to the Europa League knockouts, the stage at which Napoli bowed out in the Round of 16 a year ago.
The question is whether the side will be winners or runners-up. Considering that the final contest of the group match is against Slovan Bratislava—which has lost all five group games at an aggregate score of 17-1—Rafa Benitez's men are good bets to get the three points needed to wrap up the top spot.
Napoli can also win the group with a draw so long as Prague and Young Boys also finish even. A draw and a win for either of their pursuers in Bern, Napoli finishes second. If the Neapolitans lose, they finish second, regardless of the result in Bern.
Given the lack of resistance Bratislava has shown in this competition, there's no reason to believe that Napoli will fail to win so long as the Italians keep focused. In all likelihood, Prague and Young Boys will be playing for second.
Fiorentina
6 of 6
For the second year in a row, Fiorentina has dominated its Europa League group. Four wins and a draw have left La Viola four points ahead of Guingamp, making them winners of Group K with a game to spare.
In all likelihood, Vincenzo Montella will rest his top players with an eye on an extraordinarily winnable game against Cesena on Sunday.
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