UFC 181: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Even the UFC’s most loyal supporter would likely concede that stacked cards are rare in the current MMA climate. Relatively speaking, UFC 181 is quite a treat for the fans, then.
With two titles fights and a stellar supporting cast, Saturday night has a lot to anticipate.
Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler will go at it again for the welterweight crown. Anthony Pettis returns after a lengthy layoff to defend his lightweight title against Gilbert Melendez. Brendan Schaub takes on Travis Browne, and there's much more besides.
As ever, Bleacher Report’s MMA team is on hand to guide you through the event. Read on for the views of Scott Harris, Craig Amos, Sean Smith, Riley Kontek and me, James MacDonald.
2014 Staff Records
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It remains tight at the top of the leaderboard. Craig Amos continues to fend off the challenge of Riley Kontek and myself.
Sean Smith is sitting comfortably in fourth place, while the risk-taking Scott Harris looks to have made a home for himself in fifth place.
Here are the current standings:
Craig Amos: 137-74-1
Riley Kontek: 135-76-1
James MacDonald: 134-77-1
Sean Smith: 129-82-1
Scott Harris: 121-90-1
Tony Ferguson vs. Abel Trujillo
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Harris
Trujillo is a scary brawler. I wouldn't want to fight him. But Ferguson has more tools in his toolbox. He knows Trujillo is a head hunter, and he'll have the defense, ground game and fight acumen to respond appropriately.
Ferguson, Unanimous decision
Smith
This matchup is a great opportunity for Ferguson to take a big step forward in the lightweight division. He's a more technical striker than the brawling Trujillo, and Ferguson doesn't have anything to worry about on the ground against the Blackzilian.
Ferguson, Unanimous decision
Kontek
This is easily the tightest matchup on the main card. Both can throw hands and are underrated on the ground. Though Trujillo's takedown defense has been tested before, Ferguson is no Khabib Nurmagomedov. In a tight battle between dark horses, Trujillo scores one for the Blackzilians.
Trujillo, Unanimous decision
Amos
Ferguson has had some success inside the Octagon, but his growth since winning The Ultimate Fighter has not been all that significant. Trujillo has shown a little more promise but certainly not as much polish. His future looks brighter than Ferguson's, but it's a matter of determining whether or not he's already passed him on the learning curve.
Trujillo, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
I’m pretty high on Ferguson. He has a ton of potential. I’m not so high on Trujillo, so expect the The Ultimate Fighter veteran to get the job done. He’s too technical and well-rounded for the brawling Trujillo.
Ferguson, Unanimous decision
Todd Duffee vs. Anthony Hamilton
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Harris
What a weird road it's been for Duffee. He's had no shortage of bumps and detours, but when the road is smooth, why, it's very, very smooth. He's a smooth criminal, all right, and after this fight, we'll be asking "are you OK, Anthony?" Boom.
Duffee, TKO, Rd. 1
Smith
It's not easy to come back from two years away from competition without displaying some rust. That's why I'm going against the imposing Duffee in this matchup. There's no room for slow starts in the heavy-hitting heavyweight division.
Hamilton, KO, Rd. 1
Kontek
Anthony Hamilton is tough and underrated. That's why he's dangerous here. Many people are going to count him out because Todd Duffee is a juggernaut of a man. But don't be surprised if Hamilton can catch him with something sneaky. Regardless, I am a coward and will not pick against Duffee, who can have a tendency to block strikes with his chin.
Duffee, TKO, Rd. 1
Amos
It's difficult to be confident picking a Todd Duffee fight, let alone one that comes on the heels of a near two-year layoff. We'll probably see a knockout one way or the other; it's just deciding between Duffee and Hamilton that requires a little bit of consideration.
Duffee, KO, Rd. 1
MacDonald
I worry about Duffee’s chin. Despite his genetic gifts, his punch resistance often betrays him. Still, even with a weak pair of whiskers and two years on the shelf, he should have too much in his toolkit for Hamilton.
Duffee, TKO, Rd. 1
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Brendan Schaub vs. Travis Browne
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Harris
As I write this, I haven't seen anyone, fan or pundit, at this outlet or any other, predict anything besides a knockout for Travis Browne. He'll be motivated after the Fabricio Werdum fight, even as the chinny Schaub comes off a thoroughly uninteresting loss to Andrei Arlovski. Add me to the pile.
Browne, KO, Rd. 2
Smith
With Browne's underrated takedown defense and Schaub's questionable chin, this matchup should be easy to predict. Hapa takes care of business quickly and gets back to competing with elite heavyweights.
Browne, KO, Rd. 1
Kontek
Travis Browne is a tough dude. Look at the beating Werdum gave him. He also has cruise missiles for hands and stout takedown defense. Combine that with the fact that Brendan Schaub isn't winning any "Chin of the Year" awards and you have a cut-and-dry knockout.
Browne, KO, Rd. 1
Amos
Schaub has managed to get through three straight fights without suffering a knockout, but that streak, over which he has gone 2-1, will surely come to an end on Saturday. He may have learned to hide his chin a bit better, but Browne should manage a connection, and it shouldn't take more than a single clean one to spell the end.
Browne, TKO, Rd. 1
MacDonald
As is the case with Duffee, it’s tough not to worry about Schaub’s chin, even if he has learned to protect it with a more conservative style. There’s no question that Browne will connect at some point. And when he does, it'll be lights out for Schaub.
Browne, TKO, Rd. 2
Anthony Pettis (c) vs. Gilbert Melendez
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Harris
Melendez could use his wrestling to make the difference. He could back Pettis against the fence. But "could" is not the same as "will." I don't think he'll get close enough to do any of this, and I'm not sure he would even if he did. This one will be a crowd-pleaser, with the champion taking an exciting decision.
Pettis, Unanimous decision
Smith
Based on their performances against a common opponent in Benson Henderson, Pettis has clearly shown he's a more talented striker than Melendez. With a submission win over Henderson in his most recent outing, Pettis reminded everybody he's no slouch on the ground either. Pettis gets enough done while standing to negate whatever Melendez does accomplish on the ground.
Pettis, Unanimous decision
Kontek
Will ring rust affect Anthony Pettis? That is the question here. He is clearly the superior striker, and should Melendez go to the ground with him, he has a tricky guard and wacky submissions off his back. This is a good matchup for him, and styles make fights.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 2
Amos
In one sense, this is just a tragic stylistic pairing for Pettis, who has historically struggled with wrestlers. In another sense, Melendez's willingness to engage in wild exchanges must have the champion licking his chops. All things considered, Pettis continues to grow as a mixed martial artist every time we see him, so perhaps those wrestling issues will show up less and less. His striking edge will be ever present on Saturday, though.
Pettis, KO, Rd. 2
MacDonald
A lot of people seem to think Melendez is a bad matchup for Pettis. However, I’m not so sure the challenger quite has the wrestling to grind out the win, even if he was inclined to do so. There’s no question that Melendez is a solid grappler, but I can’t see him holding the champ down for five rounds. Look for body kicks to again make the difference for Pettis. Diego Sanchez landed a few tasty ones on Melendez, so one can only imagine what Pettis’ left leg will do to the challenger’s liver.
Pettis, TKO, Rd. 2
Johny Hendricks (c) vs. Robbie Lawler
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Harris
This rematch will be a close cousin of the one Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos waged not so very long ago. That one, from a standpoint of style and outcome, was really reminiscent of the original. This one will be, too. Infighting, heavy punches and a close contest, ending in another decision win for the champ.
Hendricks, Unanimous decision
Smith
The first meeting between these two was extremely competitive. However, I don't see Lawler looking much better against Hendricks than he did in the first meeting. Hendricks didn't commit to his high-level wrestling as much as he could have in the last go-around, and he'll have learned from that.
Hendricks, Unanimous decision
Kontek
The first fight between these two was a classic showdown that I barely remember. Thanks a lot, St. Patrick's Day! Anyway, the first fight was razor-close and could have gone either way. Regardless, I am weird and for some reason think Johny Hendricks is a tad overrated. In another classic bout, Lawler scores a victory to make a big rubber match in 2015.
Lawler, Unanimous decision
Amos
The first fight was close enough to warrant this rematch, but I'm confident the result will be the same. And because Hendricks absorbed so much damage in the win last time, he may be inclined to mix in some more takedown attempts, which will only shift the bout further in his favor.
Hendricks, Unanimous decision
MacDonald
It doesn’t bode well for Lawler that Hendricks was able to secure the win last time out while far from 100 percent. While I don’t expect the champ to take down Lawler at will, he should mix up his game better this time around. The fight should still be competitive, but I have a feeling Hendricks will end things late.
Hendricks, TKO, Rd. 4
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