Ravens vs. Dolphins: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan
The most crucial game of the season has arrived for the Miami Dolphins. Sitting at 7-5 with just a month left in the regular season, Miami finds itself in basically a must-win game against the Baltimore Ravens to stay in the driver’s seat of the AFC wild-card race.
Miami will be tested once again as it treks through the seventh-hardest schedule in the league, according to Prediction Machine. Those are the cards the Dolphins were dealt. If nothing else, Miami will be battle-tested by the end of the season.
In such a crucial game, the Dolphins coaching staff and players need to galvanize for a strong team performance. We previously touched on the key individual matchups that Miami needs to win. Now, we look at the game plan aspect.
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Balance Is Key
Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has done an impressive job in his first season in Miami. He, along with offensive line coach John Benton, has helped Miami transform from a one-dimensional offense with bad trench play into a high-potential unit that hurts the defense multiple ways.
Despite a makeshift offensive line, Miami is still a top-10 rushing offense in yards per game, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing better than he ever has. Those are major factors for Miami’s improvement as a team.
Still, if there is an area where the Dolphins’ play-calling can improve the most, it’s staying balanced by running more. Since Branden Albert was hurt in the Detroit Lions game, Miami hasn’t been as committed to the running game as before. Against the Bills, Broncos and Jets, Miami only ran an average of 21 times per game.
The issue with running so few times is that Lamar Miller is averaging an insane 4.9 yards a carry. He’s on pace for just 972 yards, however, as he only gets about 12.5 carries a game. At 5’11” and 215 pounds, he’s capable of handling the rock 20 times a game, but Miami’s finesse tendencies are taking opportunities from him.
The Ravens rank as a top-five defense against the run, limiting opponents to a measly 86.3 yards a game. That’s very impressive, but it cannot deter Miami from feeding Miller and Damien Williams. What will also help is that star defensive tackle Haloti Ngata has been suspended for the matchup, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.
The Dolphins should also switch to left guard Shelley Smith instead of Daryn Colledge. In film study, it is clear that Smith is the better player, offering much more impact as a run-blocker while also being more consistent as a pass-blocker. Why the coaches continue to switch back and forth is unnecessary, but it has shown that the offense operates better with Smith in.
Open It Up
It may seem counterintuitive to want Miami to run deeper routes when the offensive line is in tatters due to injuries, but running five-yard comebacks every play isn’t productive enough. Too often, Miami will get into a rut where every receiver is within a few yards of the other, forcing Tannehill to throw to his first read.
If his man isn’t open, the offense stagnates because cornerbacks can sit on the underneath routes and wait until a ball is tipped or just smother Tannehill on his dropback. There are solutions to this issue.
The first is to get Tannehill on the move to change his launch point. The Dolphins do not utilize this option enough, but it’s an easy way to run deeper routes and reduce the immediate pressure on the line and on Tannehill.
Secondly, and most obviously, is to just run deeper routes. They do not have to be go-routes, as that’s not the strength of Tannehill or his receivers. But looking at where Miami is the most dangerous is using intermediate routes, especially over the middle of the field.
With Jarvis Landry, Dion Sims and Charles Clay, Miami has some weapons who win at the catch point. Use them, and the defense will sag off, allowing the running game to dominate.
Tannehill has proven to be tough and capable of making clutch plays. The only way he will continue to shine is to allow him to scan the field and create plays. That type of trust from Lazor is absolutely needed this week against the Ravens.
Keep Integrity
Looking at why the Dolphins are struggling against the run all of a sudden, the reason was obvious upon reviewing the film the last two weeks. Quite simply, the execution was poor. Whether using eight-man boxes or not, Miami’s front seven was simply unable to stop the run against the Broncos and in the first half against the Jets.
Defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle agreed, saying this earlier in the week, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald:
“There are isolated breakdowns we need to get fixed. Some of the plays that have broken out on us are not your conventional run plays, when you talk about reverses and plays of that nature. We need to do a better job of fitting the run game.”
To illustrate Miami’s struggles, we look to how the Jets were able to create big running lanes in the first half last week. Below, we see that the weak side of the Dolphins defense is crashing down toward the original direction of the play, giving the ball-carrier a massive amount of space to work with.
In the second half, Miami showed discipline on these end-around plays, stuffing all four attempts the Jets made. What was the difference? Take a look at Olivier Vernon forcing Percy Harvin to the sideline.
Even interior runs gave Miami fits, but again, the second half saw improved play. When the defensive tackles were creating a push or eating double-teams (mostly Earl Mitchell, who is excellent at this), the linebackers were unable to shoot the gaps consistently and make stops.
When Koa Misi plays well, the defense is much better. The issue for Miami is that he is slow to recognize where the ball is heading too often. This puts immense pressure on the defensive line to penetrate gaps and make plays, which should not be its role.
See above for an example of how valuable a player who can eat two gaps is—but also for how important linebacker play is. It takes high-level execution from the entire unit to be effective, and that is even more critical this week.
Looking at Baltimore’s offensive line, they may have the best interior group in the entire league. The trio of Jeremy Zuttah, Marshal Yanda and Kelechi Osemele are fantastic, and they allow a once-forgotten back like Justin Forsett to run for 1,009 yards through 12 games.
Miami needs to take pride in itself and not allow the Ravens to outwork its defensive front like the Jets did for the first 30 minutes of the game. Paired with Joe Flacco at quarterback, the Ravens can score much easier than Geno Smith can.
Play Mistake Free
The last time the Dolphins played against the Baltimore Ravens, Miami simply made too many crucial mistakes to win. They allowed three sacks by Terrell Suggs, three completions of 40 or more yards by Flacco and missed a game-tying field goal as time expired.
You cannot win games against good opponents like that. How much have Philbin and his team grown since then? For Miami’s playoff outlook, hopefully it's significant.
Baltimore is a streaky team on both offense and defense. Flacco will go through stretches where he forces passes into tight windows despite the best decision being somewhere else. Miami needs to punish him when he takes the risks by forcing turnovers.
On defense, the Ravens are vulnerable in their secondary. Miami doesn’t go deep much, and that probably shouldn’t change, but they cannot be afraid to test the opposing cornerbacks this week.
The Ravens have a solid roster and do not match up well for the Dolphins. That being said, they’ve played the 25th-strongest schedule in the NFL, so it’s hard to tell exactly how good they are.
Being at home and more battle-tested this season, the Dolphins should have a fair shot at winning this game. But the slow starts and dumb mistakes cannot happen. Miami needs to put on a performance like they had against the San Diego Chargers, where everything came together for a big victory.
The Dolphins are a good team, but they are inconsistent as they learn to win. If we follow their roller coaster trend, this should be a good performance by Miami.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Ravens 23
All stats used are from sports-reference.com.
Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting, and analyst for eDraft.
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