How Can the Ravens Compensate for Loss of Suspended Haloti Ngata?

The Baltimore Ravens announced on Thursday that five-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Haloti Ngata would be suspended by the NFL for the final four games of the season after violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances. 

In a statement, Ngata acknowledged the positive test:

"

I made a mistake, and I own this. I took Adderall and take full responsibility for doing this. I am deeply sorry and broken up over this. I let down my family, my teammates, Ravens fans and myself. My hope is that the Ravens make the playoffs, and I believe they can do this. And, then I can come back and help us win.

"

The suspension is a blow to a Ravens defense that has seen a number of setbacks this year, including a season-ending injury to cornerback Jimmy Smith that has left the Ravens with one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Losing Ngata—who is disruptive to quarterbacks and running backs alike—at this crucial time in the season could be the final blow for a Ravens team on the precipice of a postseason berth. They are 7-5, one of three teams in the AFC North with a seven-win record, and one of six seven-win teams in the AFC as a whole.

Though 30 years old, Ngata has had a strong 2014 season. He has 31 combined tackles, two tackles for a loss, two sacks, seven passes defensed, two interceptions and two forced fumbles. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he's played the most snaps of any Ravens defensive lineman this season.

Ngata's contribution to the Ravens is twofold. One is in the passing game, helping occupy offensive linemen so pass-rushers like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil can create pressure on the quarterback. He also often drives forward at the quarterback himself, leading to not just his two sacks but also to additional quarterback hits and 14 hurries.

But his biggest impact is in the run game. Currently, the Ravens rank fourth in rushing yards allowed, at 1,035 on the year. That's an average of just 86.3 rushing yards allowed per game and 3.6 yards per rush. 

The directional stats provided by Football Outsiders (subscription required) also back up Ngata's run-stopping impact. Though opposing offenses run the ball at the middle of the Ravens defensive line 65 percent of the time, the Ravens rank fourth in yards allowed at that position of the line, at 3.27 yards on average.

Now, the Ravens will have to face their final four opponents with a mix of Brandon Williams and rookie Timmy Jernigan playing Ngata's position, as The Baltimore Sun's Aaron Wilson points out.

Williams has played 397 snaps this season and has 35 combined tackles, three tackles for a loss, a half-sack, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. His run-stopping abilities should make up somewhat for Ngata's absence, but he's far less disruptive as a pass-rusher. He has just two additional quarterback hits and five hurries on the season.

Jernigan is a bigger unknown. He has played only 154 snaps this season, but he does have 12 combined tackles and two sacks. His use is primarily as a pass-rusher, and that will be the aspect of Ngata's game he will take on over the next four games.

But the pass rush isn't the main concern here—it's the run defense. Ngata's impact there cannot be understated this year, and it could make the difference between wins and losses in the Ravens' final four games.

Player	Snaps	Comb. T.	TFL	Sack	FF	FR
Ngata	645	31	2	2.0	2	0
Williams	397	35	3	.5	2	1
Jernigan	154	12	0	2	0	0

Of their remaining opponents—the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday, a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15, a road game against the Houston Texans in Week 16 and a home contest against the currently 7-5 Cleveland Browns to close out the season—three rank in the top half of the league in rushing yards per game.

Though the Ravens defense has proved easy to pass against (it ranks 31st), Ngata's suspension means now it will be easier for offenses to run against, too. With both aspects of the defense faltering, winning out—something the Ravens might need to do to reach the postseason—could prove too difficult a task.

Team	Rush YPG	Rank	YPR	Rank
@ MIA	120.3	10	4.6	5
vs. JAX	98.3	23	4.3	11
@ HOU	134.1	4	4.1	16
vs. CLE	113.9	14	3.6	28

For what it's worth, Williams has held his own as a run defender and Jernigan has flashed talent, though as a rookie, he certainly does not have the experience or leadership cache of a veteran like Ngata. Neither have the intimidation factor of Ngata, either.

But the Ravens' loss last week against the now-8-4 San Diego Chargers puts their backs against the wall in the playoff picture. Three of their four remaining opponents are also in the playoff hunt. The Cincinnati Bengals currently have a 1.5-game lead over Baltimore in the AFC North and the Ravens also lead the division in in-division losses with three.

The Ravens might have the bodies to fill in for Ngata, but it remains unknown if they have the talent. At the very least, the depth chart is a friendly one as it relates to his suspension. They didn't have to suddenly sign a free agent to replace him. 

However, any setback, especially to the Ravens defense, means a setback to the team's playoff chances. Starting on Sunday, we'll see just how valuable Ngata was to the defense and how capable Williams and Jernigan are at replacing his formidable presence.