Solomon Hill Is Next in Line to Follow the Indiana Pacers' Breakout Model
Without Paul George this season, the eyes of the Indiana Pacers have already shifted to their future. The team is playing surprisingly well despite a tidal wave of injuries. But with George on the sidelines, this organization's goal of competing for a championship has been shifted to next season at the earliest.
With ultimate goals existing outside of this season, the Pacers are still looking for bright spots. In the strong play of second-year guard Solomon Hill, they have found a big one.
As a rookie, Hill was treated to several stints in the D-League and finished the season having played just 226 minutes. Now he's been given an opportunity because of early injuries to George, C.J. Watson, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles. He's already more than doubled that minute total this season and has emphatically made the case that he belongs in the Pacers' wing rotation while doing so, regardless of who else is healthy.
After Hill tipped in the winning basket in a late-November game against the Charlotte Hornets, head coach Frank Vogel talked with Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star about Hill proving himself:
"From the time we interviewed him before the draft, it was glaring that he was a very mature guy. The way he carried himself was as impressive to us as anything he did on the basketball court, so to see him show a leadership role this early is not surprising to me.
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Hill is now following something of an organizational template. Like Paul George, Danny Granger and Al Harrington, Hill has taken a small set of opportunities in a supporting role and demanded more with surprising production.
Although their paths are not identical, George, Granger and Harrington each followed similar progressions—a progression that Hill may be beginning.
When George, Granger and Harrington joined the Pacers, each was slotted into a supporting role alongside an established wing.
Harrington was a rookie in 1998-99, on a Pacers team that included Reggie Miller, Jalen Rose and Chris Mullin. When Granger arrived in 2005-06, the Pacers' wing rotation featured Stephen Jackson, Peja Stojakovic, Fred Jones and, briefly, Metta World Peace. As a rookie, Paul George played alongside Granger, Brandon Rush and Mike Dunleavy.
In each case, the scoring responsibilities were handled by more senior members of the team, and the young wing began carving out an NBA career with a defensive focus and by filling the stat sheet with effort and energy.
The continuity between these players was almost comical. Check out who Jordan Schultz listed as George's best-case scenario in a 2011 breakdown of Rookie of the Year candidates for The Huffington Post:
"Paul George (Indiana) – Overcame a rough start this season to show flashes of his colossal talent. In time, he should become a big-time scorer and solid No. 2 option, resulting in a strong wing nucleus with Danny Granger. George could also make Granger expendable if he continues to develop his offensive game. He recently tallied a career-high 23 points in helping the Pacers clinch its first playoff spot in five years. Best Case: Danny Granger
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Harrington's role took a little longer to develop, but by their second seasons both George and Granger had proved to be productive supporting players, even showing flashes of the potential for more. Comparing Hill's second-season numbers to the field, we see that he fits right in.
| Player | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | True Shooting Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Harrington | 17.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 52.4% |
| Danny Granger | 34.0 | 13.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 57.3% |
| Paul George | 29.7 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 55.5% |
| Solomon Hill | 33.2 | 11.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 50.1% |
Hill has obviously not yet proved to be the shooter that any of the other three are, but you can see the similarities developing. He also hasn't yet had the benefit of playing in the Pacers offense while its full complement of offensive weapons have been healthy.
While his scoring and shooting potential may appear to lag, Hill looks capable of being the jack-of-all-trades, versatile wing that Granger, George and Harrington began their careers as.
Hill also impresses when we look at how those box-score statistics translate into overall impact. The chart below shows the progression of these four Indiana wings over their first four seasons. You can toggle between minutes per game, Box Plus-Minus (a box score derived estimate of a player's total impact, per 100 possessions), Offensive Box Plus-Minus and Defensive Box Plus-Minus.
In overall impact through their first two seasons, Hill lags behind George and Granger. He's still slightly below-average (BPM is scaled so that zero represents an average level of performance). Still, he's been very good defensively—better than both Granger and Harrington were in their second seasons—and his upward trajectory is very promising.
Offense, and specifically efficient scoring, is what will probably determine Hill's ultimate ceiling. While his true shooting percentage is low right now, his shot chart shows some real promise.
The distribution of shots is ideal: very few mid-range jump shots with lots of activity at the rim and behind the three-point line. The inability to finish effectively is the primary concern, but it is important to remember the context that Hill is playing in right now.
Like George and Granger before him, Hill is making his way as a supporting offensive player. But because of injuries, he's been supporting Donald Sloan, Luis Scola and Chris Copeland instead of David West, George Hill and Paul George.
According to the NBA's SportVU player tracking statistics, Hill is averaging almost as many pull-up jump shots per game (2.2) as catch-and-shoot jump shots (2.7). As the Pacers get healthy, Hill's offensive responsibilities should be restricted slightly, which should raise his efficiency.
The Pacers have to be thrilled with what they've seen from Solomon Hill so far this season, but they can't be surprised. They've seen it before.
He may not be the star Paul George became or Danny Granger appeared to be before injuries derailed him. But Solomon Hill appears ready to follow their paths, becoming a bigger and bigger part of the Indiana Pacers and hopefully leading them back to somewhere special.
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