C.J. Anderson Is the Real Deal at Running Back for the Denver Broncos

After using a second- and third-round pick to try to find an upgrade at running back over the last two years, the Denver Broncos finally found their man. Except it isn’t Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball, but an undrafted free agent the team signed in 2013 named C.J. Anderson, who was a JUCO transfer that shared carries his senior year at Cal.

Even the Broncos are still trying to figure out if Anderson is the real deal, but they should have a good idea that he is by now. They clearly didn’t know what they had in Anderson or he would have been getting carries over Ball and Hillman to start the year, but now the proof is almost undeniable.

People will label Anderson as a product of the system, but the reality is that every good running back is a product of their situation and system just as much as their ability. The fact that Anderson has benefited from better blocking, weaker run defenses and a soft box that playing alongside quarterback Peyton Manning affords doesn’t mean he’s not the real deal.

Roughly five games worth of production—around 100 carries—should be enough to evaluate the performance of a running back. Anderson currently sits at 98 carries on the season at a 5.47 clip. Since the merger, just 27 running backs have averaged 5.47 yards per carry on 100 or more carries in a season, and that number doesn’t change even if the sample is limited to just the first 12 games.  

Player	Year	Rush	Rush Yards	Y/A	Rec.	Rec. Yards
Walter Payton*	1977	292	1642	5.62	21	246
Chris Johnson	2009	244	1509	6.18	39	322
Barry Sanders*	1997	244	1427	5.85	22	248
Jamaal Charles	2010	182	1137	6.25	34	379
Don Woods	1974	177	982	5.55	18	252
Fred Jackson	2011	170	934	5.49	39	442
C.J. Spiller	2012	137	907	6.62	33	339
Charlie Garner	2002	129	729	5.65	73	761
Stump Mitchell	1985	109	596	5.47	33	408
Tony Nathan	1981	106	589	5.56	42	390
C.J. Anderson	2014	98	536	5.47	22	238

If we add in Anderson’s ability in the passing game, he’s even more impressive. The list of running backs that have averaged 5.47 yards per carry on 98 or more carries and have 238 receiving yards through 12 games include just 11 other names—none of them weren’t the real deal. Of course, Anderson’s sample is still the smallest on the list, but it bodes well for him going forward.

Perhaps the best comparisons for Anderson’s season at age 23 and due to limited carries are Napoleon Kaufman at age 23 in 1996, Charlie Garner at age 23 in 1995 and Tatum Bell at age 24 in 2005. The product of the system argument certainly applies to Bell, but all of the examples were in a timeshare and not a clear No. 1 as Anderson is likely to be going forward.

If Anderson had two more carries this season, he would lead all running backs in DVOA, a weighted statistic created by Football Outsiders that aims to measure value per play. Anderson is currently sixth in DYAR, a statistic they created to measure total value.

Among running backs, Anderson is second in DVOA and sixth in DYAR in the passing game. Despite his limited carries, Anderson is already among the best running backs in the NFL in terms of production.

Stat	DVOA (Rush)	DYAR (Rush)	PFF Rush	PFF Breakaway %
Stat	DVOA (Pass)	DYAR (Pass)	PFF Pass	PFF Elusiveness
Value	28.3%	148	+9.0	32.1%
Rank	1 (Non-qualified)	6 (non-qualified)	5	10
Value	41.1	88	+5.5	89.1
Rank	2	6	5	2

Anderson is currently third overall in Pro Football Focus’ player grades among running backs, just behind Le’Veon Bell and Marshawn Lynch. In an attempt to distill the impact of a running back independent of their blocking, PFF also created elusiveness rate, which uses yards per carry after contact, missed tackles and breakaway percentage, the percentage of a player's yards that come on gains of 15 or more yards.

Anderson is second in the league with an elusiveness rating of 89.1 and 10th in breakaway percentage with 32.1 percent of his yards coming on nine runs of more than 15 yards. That’s right up there with the best running backs in the league in just about every advanced statistic there is.

The major caveat to all of this has been the opponents Anderson has faced. Since Anderson became the primary running back, he’s faced four teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed—including two in the bottom six. The Buffalo Bills—the Broncos’ Week 14 opponent—are top eight in both rush yards allowed and yards per carry allowed.

Anderson’s ability to produce in the passing game when the running game isn’t working is one of the main reasons why he’s the real deal. Anderson had just nine carries against the St. Louis Rams a few weeks ago, but he added eight receptions for 86 yards.

Defenses have never been able to load the box against Manning or he’ll burn them, so Anderson is in a prime position to succeed. If we’re being honest, few running backs can run successfully consistently against a loaded box anyway.

"As a running back growing up, I never got a chance to run against a six- or seven-man box," Anderson said, via Mike Klis of The Denver Post. "When I get to see a six- or seven-man box, I'm licking my chops. Part of that is who (Manning) is and the respect they have for him."

Stat	Yards Per Carry	Yards Per Carry After Contact	Missed Tackles
Stat	Yards Per Reception	Yards After Catch/Rec.	Missed Tackles
Value	5.5	2.7	25
Rank	3	8	15
Value	10.8	9.9	15
Rank	4	9	7

Anderson’s ability to make people miss and gain yards after contact would translate to a loaded box just as well as any running back, but since he won’t face many he should remain productive.

Of course, the Broncos likely aren’t going to hand the ball to Anderson 30 times per game consistently. Over the past two weeks, Anderson has carried the ball 59 times and touched it 65 times. That’s a heavy load for any running back in the league.

The Broncos will start passing more again and hand off a few carries to Ball or Hillman once they’re healthy as well. Anderson’s huge yardage numbers will likely regress as his usage changes, but that’s not an indictment on his ability at all.

It took injuries and necessity for the Broncos to turn to Anderson, but he’s taken the opportunity and run with it, both figuratively and literally. For the first time in a long time, the Broncos can have a balanced offense—Anderson is just another weapon in Manning’s arsenal now.

In the playoffs when the weather is wet and cold and the defenses are tough, having a runner like Anderson could pay huge dividends. He might not continue to put up the monster numbers as he has in recent weeks, but he should continue to be an important part of the offense.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference or Pro Football Focus (subscription required).