Buccaneers vs. Lions: Breaking Down Detroit's Game Plan

Fresh and rested off a big Thanksgiving win over the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

What: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4)

When: Sunday, December 7, 1 p.m. ET

Watch: Fox, Dick Stockton and Brady Quinn with the call

On paper, the Lions are prohibitive favorites. The tale of the tape suggests Detroit should handily extend the win streak to two and keep the playoff fires burning. 

Team	Yards Per Carry	QB Rating	Defensive YPC	Defensive QB Rating	Point Differential	Points Per Game Allowed
Lions	31st	21st	1st	6th	15th	1st
Buccaneers	26th	28th	10th	24th	27th	23rd

Even the areas where Detroit looks poor are a bit misleading. The yards per carry on offense have improved by over a full yard in the last three games (from 3.1 to 4.2), and Detroit ranks tied for 18th in that span. Tampa is trending in the other direction with just 2.8 yards per attempt in its last three, good for 31st. 

In addition, the Lions are 5-1 at Ford Field. Tampa Bay is still looking for its first road win—0-6 as the visitors in head coach Lovie Smith's first year. 

But football games aren't played on paper. The Buccaneers proved this last year when the Greg Schiano-coached team upended the Lions 24-21 at Ford Field. That Tampa team was 2-8, and those Lions were 6-4. But it didn't matter; the Buccaneers were the better team on that day. 

That makes the game plan pretty straightforward. The Lions need to remember they are the better team.

It starts with how the coaching staff prepares the team this week. Slow starts are a problem for the Lions, and they need to look no further than last week's Chicago game. 

The Bears raced out to a quick 14-3 lead, capitalizing on a lethargic defensive effort and turning a bad turnover into paydirt. Jared Allen's strip-sack set up Chicago for a one-play touchdown drive, and the Lions were forced to overcome yet another early deficit.

Tampa Bay proved it can come out of the gate and create problems. In fact, the Bucs defense picked off Andy Dalton's first pass in its Week 13 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. It was a direct result of sloppy play from Cincinnati's offense.

Here Dalton is clearly looking for star wideout A.J. Green from the get-go. He never looks anywhere else, and the Buccaneers are prepared. The single-high safety is drawn to the post route, correctly reading Dalton's intentions and playing off the outside technique from cornerback Johnthan Banks. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Green reads the corner and breaks inside, but Dalton has already read the safety and thrown the ball outside to the circled spot where he believes Green will break. This picture below doesn't really do justice to how clueless Green was that the ball was already behind him and in Banks' waiting arms.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Matthew Stafford and his receivers must be on the same page to avoid costly mix-ups like this one. Cincinnati got lucky that Tampa Bay only converted this into a field goal, thanks in part to a false-start penalty and unimaginative red-zone play-calling. 

It's playing with fire to consistently play from behind. The Lions have managed to escape against the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Chicago, but a bad Detroit first quarter was all the Arizona Cardinals needed to secure the victory.

Last year's loss also provides a lesson in how to lose to a weaker opponent. It was one of the sloppiest efforts in the entire Jim Schwartz coaching era, which spent more than its fair share of time in a pigpen. 

If Lions fans have blocked that disastrous outing from their minds, I apologize for dredging up the dead memories. Trust me, it was hard to go back and watch. 

The offense turned the ball over five times. It could have been seven, but Detroit recovered two of its own fumbles. Stafford threw four interceptions, including a pick-six which gave Tampa Bay a lead. 

Detroit's defense was very strong...except when it wasn't. Quarterback Mike Glennon got over half his 247 passing yards on just two plays. There is a common denominator on both those plays—coverage breakdowns by the safeties. 

The first one features Glover Quin as the guilty party. 

Quin is the deep help on the left side of the field charged with helping corner Rashean Mathis handle Vincent Jackson. "VJax" is physically as close to Calvin Johnson as anyone in the league, at 6'5", 241 pounds and blessed with great leaping ability and outstanding deep speed. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

For some reason, Quin opts to creep up instead of paying attention to his deeper coverage responsibilities. The linebackers are adequately covering all the shorter options and had been doing so all afternoon, so the Lions safety is simply making a bad decision here. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Jackson makes him pay. Mathis gets flagged for illegal contact (he earned it) but still couldn't prevent the rangy wideout from getting over the top and hauling in a 47-yard pass. This big play set up Tampa's first touchdown.

If Quin's poor read looks bad, Louis Delmas does a great job one-upping his running mate. This is quite simply one of the worst plays by a safety you can ever witness. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Delmas has but one job on this play: help Chris Houston with the deep middle as the corner plays outside technique on speedy wideout Tiquan Underwood. As diagrammed in blue, the linebackers have all the other outlets handled pretty capably. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The safety starts out OK, but after a few steps to the inside he suddenly darts forward and outside. Mike Glennon is not pulling him that way with his eyes. Delmas is chasing a shadow only he sees, like a kitten high on catnip trying to climb a wall. 

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

By the time Glennon arcs the ball to right where Delmas is supposed to be, Underwood had three full steps beyond Houston as well as inside leverage on the route. The veteran corner was hopelessly beaten, though he didn't help his case by missing a halfhearted tackling effort after Underwood slowed up to catch the lofty pass. His safety help was 25 yards away tilting at a windmill. 

This 85-yard touchdown provided the final points in the game. 

Delmas and Houston (and Underwood) are now gone, but the lesson here is to not give up the big play. Quin and James Ihedigbo, Delmas' replacement, cannot allow receivers to get open over the top. 

Thus far they've done a fantastic job at preventing the big play. It shows up in the average yards against per attempt, courtesy of Sporting Charts. 

	Avg. Yards/Attempt	Rank	TD Passes Allowed	Rank
2013	12.4	28th	16 (through 12 games)	6th
2014	10.4	3rd	24	13th

The Buccaneers will threaten deep when quarterback Josh McCown has time. First-round pick Mike Evans has already proved himself to be a capable deep threat, tied for fourth in the league with 18 receptions of 20 or more yards. Among players with at least 50 receptions, Evans' 16.8 average ranks third and is a full two yards higher than Calvin Johnson's. 

As long as the pass defense keeps doing what it's been doing, the Lions should be in good shape here. The combination of a potent pass rush and sound downfield coverage has elevated the Detroit defense to the top of the league. It must avoid lapses like the ones last year against Tampa Bay. 

Detroit has a golden opportunity to bolster its playoff aspirations with a win. According to Odds Shark, the Lions are currently 10-point favorites after opening at 8.5 points. Everyone expects them to win. If they lose, they have only themselves to blame. 

All stats and rankings are from Team Rankings or NFL.com.