San Francisco 49ers vs. Oakland Raiders: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Say what you want about the Oakland Raiders, but over the last half-dozen seasons they have been known to bite some people in the rear end when least expected. Over that span, the Raiders have been home dogs of a touchdown or more 11 times, and they've won five of those games outright. Oakland is a big home dog again this week for Sunday's game at the Coliseum with the Bay Area-rival 49ers.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as seven-point favorites. The total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report.)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 18.9-6.5 49ers

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

The Niners had won three straight games, going 2-1 against the spread, but laid an egg last Thursday in a 19-3 loss to Seattle. Still, at 7-5 San Francisco is just a game off the pace in the NFC Wild Card race. Offensively, the 49ers are what they are—they rank 22nd overall, but 12th in rushing.

Defensively, San Francisco ranks fourth overall, eighth versus the run, and has allowed just 79 points over its last five games. The 49ers have played through some tough times this season—and a fair amount of off-field speculation—and still they've got a chance to make the playoffs.

If they bear down and take care of business Sunday, covering the spread should take care of itself.

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders experienced a letdown last week, losing 52-0 at St. Louis, but that was almost expected (well, not the final tally, but the loss itself) coming off their first victory of the season the week before. Oakland won't find any solace in this week's film sessions—it's best just to put that performance behind it and move on.

Young quarterback Derek Carr had been improving—he had a 10/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the previous six games—and the Raiders had been playing people close. They lost tough games to San Diego, Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle and the Chargers again, but they picked up that first win against the Chiefs. With a good defensive performance, Oakland should keep this one close, too.

Smart Pick

San Francisco owns edges all over this matchup and needs the victory to stay on pace in the playoff race. Meanwhile, Oakland is still just a young mess. So the smart money in this spot resides with the Niners, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last six games.
• Oakland is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.