Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills, with two wins and covers in a row, find themselves happily involved in that multiple-team race for AFC wild-card berths. But the 7-5 Bills will get a better idea of just who they are when they hit the road this week to take on Peyton Manning and his 9-3 Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon at Mile High.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as nine-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.6-26.0 Broncos

Why the Bills can cover the spread

The Bills are looking good, especially on defense, after last week's 26-10 victory over Cleveland. In winning four of their last six games, Buffalo has allowed just 15 points per outing. And running back Fred Jackson came up with 70 yards against the Browns, his most productive effort of the season.

The Bills only rank 24th in total offense, but quarterback Kyle Orton has provided stability, and the defense ranks fifth overall and seventh against the run. The largest spread Buffalo has faced this season came back on opening weekend, when it was a seven-point dog at Chicago; the Bills won that game straight up.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos just reasserted their dominance in the AFC West, winning at Kansas City last week, 29-16. Denver dominated, outrushing the Chiefs 214-41, as running back C.J. Anderson hit the 160-yard mark for the second game in a row.

Manning only threw for 179 yards, but he didn't need to do a whole lot, with help from Anderson and a Broncos defense that held Kansas City to 151 total yards of offense. Denver ranks fifth in total offense, third in total defense, and is 2-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite, 7-3 ATS in its 10 spots giving 10 or more points.

Smart Pick

With Anderson finding a groove, Denver is even more dangerous offensively. The Broncos also own the edge on defense. The Bills might be able to beat teams like the Browns and the Jets, but Denver is another story.

The Broncos are likely to win this game, and teams that win games often cover spreads. So the smart money is with the home team, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing Denver
• Denver is 5-2 SU in its last seven games when playing Buffalo

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.