Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers: Complete Week 14 Preview for Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers on Monday Night Football in a game that could determine the division leaders after it's over. Green Bay is in a horse race with the Detroit Lions to win the division, while the Falcons are trying to be the last man standing on top of the garbage heap known as the NFC South.
Atlanta is a better team than its 5-7 record would indicate, though. After taking leads or being down by just one touchdown heading into the fourth quarter during four of its five games on its five-game losing streak before the bye, Atlanta has been able to go 3-1 in those same games.
A big reason for better performances was the defense finally stepping up and creating some pass rush. With the improved pass rush, Atlanta has been able to intercept opposing passers nine times over the past four games. If it can continue on its current turnover pace, the defense could help win this one.
Aaron Rodgers has just three turnovers though all season, and Atlanta will have to find ways to make him play uncharacteristic offense if it wants a shot to win. Atlanta does have a legitimate shot even if Rodgers has a great day, though. But it needs to hold on to the ball more and score on almost every possession.
Atlanta Falcons' Week 13 Recap
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The Atlanta Falcons beat the Arizona Cardinals in 29-18 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would indicate. Atlanta missed quite a few touchdown opportunities on offense, and a Matt Ryan pick-six hurt the final score and momentum during the middle of the game.
After turning in one of its best offensive performances of the season, Atlanta needs to duplicate it against the Packers in order to have a shot to win. The Falcons matched up well against a Cardinals team, and that's why they were able to destroy it.
Atlanta was able to create a ton of turnovers against Arizona and used that to its advantage to make sure to have the shortest fields possible. Atlanta needs to continue to get turnovers and manufacture points after them. The only real aggravation from the Cardinals game was the lack of red-zone touchdowns.
The only real injury was to reserve outside linebacker and defensive end Stansly Maponga. He's got players who are just as good as him in the rotation in Cliff Matthews and Jonathan Massaquoi, though. Atlanta is still just as healthy as it was before the Cardinals game.
News and Notes
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Atlanta's NFC South Chances Rest on Its Offense
The Atlanta Falcons are in the driver's seat for the NFC South and could take another step to winning the title with a win this week. To do so, the offense needs to click. Danny Kelly of SBNation.com notes the Falcons' strengths on offense as the thing that could make the Atlanta scary as the season ends:
"Bottom line: Nobody is crowning the Falcons at this point in the year, obviously. But the team's game plan and execution on offense against the Cardinals helped allow it to control the ball for 37+ minutes of that game. If Ryan catches fire and starts playing the way we know he can play, Atlanta just becomes an interesting team to watch over the final four games.
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The Falcons offense has been able to turn things around recently with better offensive line play. If the offensive line can continue to hold off pass-rushers and create some holes for the running backs, Atlanta could wind up scoring a ton of points over the last four weeks of the season.
Holding the ball for 37 minutes against one of the best defenses in the NFL really shows just how well the offense can control the game when it's clicking. The offense playing exceptionally well will only help the defense play its best ball. Atlanta needs a great offensive performance this week to beat the Packers.
Scouts Show Disrespect to Atlanta's Improved Secondary
No one is giving the Falcons a shot this week against the Green Bay Packers. A big reason is because the pass defense has allowed the most yards all season. Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel quoted an NFL scout talking about the Falcons:
"Atlanta's secondary is as bad as Philadelphia's secondary," one of the scouts said. "If the Packers don't blow this team out, I'll be disappointed.
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This comment is one of the most unfair comments about the Falcons because it doesn't take into account that William Moore was out or the exceptional play of Kemal Ishmael when Moore was out. It doesn't take into account the eighth-most interception total or the third-lowest amount of touchdowns allowed.
It doesn't take into account the 10th-lowest passer rating allowed either. It honestly looks like the scout looked at a volume yardage statistic and went from there. Desmond Trufant is looking like a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback, and the rest of the defense has finally started to jell. It just needs a pass rush.
James Stone Has Been Atlanta's Improved Depth at Center
With Peter Konz and Joe Hawley on injured reserve, the Falcons are playing undrafted free agent James Stone at center and have gotten the best play up front since Hawley went down. Reid Ferrin of Atlanta Falcons.com quoted Stone about his view on the recent success of the offensive line:
"If you get an opportunity, you’ve got to make the most of it and show that you’re ready to be here," Stone said. “When you’re playing with five guys, the more time you get to play together, the more in sync you get. I feel like it helps you play better when you get more reps together.
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Stone didn't look like a great center when he was at Tennessee, but he was the glue for a group that was the SEC's best unit for three of the four years he was there. The biggest thing Stone has been able to do is call protections at just a step below of what Hawley was doing.
He still struggles with interior blitzes and isn't a great athlete. But for someone who is auditioning to be the long-term backup, he's acing his audition. Atlanta will have some great offensive line depth in 2015 in Stone, as he's already going to have some starting experience with this group.
Injury Report
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| Pos | Name | Injury | Thu | Fri | Sat | Game Status |
| WR | Roddy White | Ankle | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| WR | Harry Douglas | Foot | DNP | LP | FP | Probable |
| OG | Justin Blalock | Back | LP | LP | FP | Probable |
| DE | Stansly Maponga | Elbow | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| CB | Robert Alford | Wrist | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
*All injury statuses from the Atlanta Falcons' official website.
Roddy White looks like he is unlikely to play after barely practicing this week. The Falcons are expecting him to be able to go, but if he doesn't get healthy in time, they will be running with the same group of receivers they had against the Cardinals. Harry Douglas would see a bigger role in that situation too.
If Stansly Maponga is out and Jonathan Massaquoi is finally healthy, the Falcons could finally use Massaquoi in the majority of snaps like they should be doing. Massaquoi has been the Falcons' most effective pass-rusher on a per-snap basis.
Robert Alford is out again, but the Falcons did a solid job with Robert McClain and Josh Wilson replacing him last week. They'll have to make sure to get the best possible play out of that duo again this week with a Green Bay team known for its receiving talent.
Justin Blalock has been battling a back injury since the Minnesota Vikings game, but he looks to be active again this week. Blalock has been the rock on the inside of the line for Atlanta and has helped James Stone adjust better than most undrafted rookies have.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Julio Jones vs. Tramon Williams
After Julio Jones destroyed Patrick Peterson in the Cardinals game, there's not anyone who will want to call him out anymore. Jones should be able to take advantage of a speed matchup against any of the Green Bay cornerbacks.
However, Tramon Williams plays primarily on the same side as Jones will primarily line up on. So the Falcons should see this matchup early and often. Even with someone like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix helping over the top at safety, this could be a great matchup for Atlanta to exploit.
Steven Jackson vs. Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington
Atlanta's interior offensive line should be able to help take care of the Packers' interior triangle on running plays. But if Steven Jackson can get a head of steam while he runs into the second level, Atlanta could use him as a battering ram to beat up Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington.
On interior blitzes for the Packers, Matthews would have to see a lot of Jackson trying to block him, and running into that 240-pound wall is not going to be fun. Jackson being able to attack the second level of Green Bay's defense is going to be crucial. So if Atlanta can run up the middle early and often, it would be beneficial.
Falcons Pass Rush vs. Green Bay Offensive Line
Atlanta has one of the worst pass-rushing defenses in the NFL. It is second-to-last in the league in sacks and also has one of the worst totals in terms of hurries and hits as well. Atlanta needs to get after Aaron Rodgers to have a shot to win this week.
This matchup doesn't get easy, as the Packers have allowed an NFL-average 26 sacks this season. But their talent level has looked much better than their sack totals would suggest. Atlanta needs to use exotic blitz concepts while still making sure to have the right players in coverage to make plays on the ball.
Falcons' X-Factor of the Week: Atlanta's Offensive Line
If the Falcons can get their offense going, it will be because the offensive line duplicated a performance it had against the Cardinals. The Packers are playing a good defense in Green Bay, but if the Falcons can get their run blocking together, they should be able to create some holes for Devonta Freeman and Steven Jackson.
In pass protection, they go against a great pass-rushing defense, but Arizona had 11 sacks and 20 quarterback hits over the previous two weeks and was held to just one sack and three hits on Matt Ryan. Atlanta will have to duplicate that performance to take advantage of the Packers defense.
Prediction
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Atlanta should have a game plan of keeping the ball away from the Packers offense. However, Green Bay can score quickly and can score big. Atlanta has to make sure it doesn't get beat by a pick-your-poison-style offense with its defense.
However, the Packers are looking like that unstoppable buzzsaw at this point in the season. Atlanta might be able to make it look competitive if its offense can turn in an excellent performance. But without some turnovers on defense, it would be tough to beat the Packers.
The only way the Falcons win this one is if they can create multiple turnovers by the Packers offense. They need to intercept a guy who hasn't been intercepted but three times all year. And they need to force and recover fumbles against a team that has only lost four of those all season.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers 41, Atlanta Falcons 35
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro-day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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