Duke Basketball: Causes for Concern for Duke Fans

Duke’s basketball season is off to a very hot and very busy start. Duke is 7-0, has won all its games by double digits and has wins over Temple and Stanford that were not as close as the final scores indicated.

There has been plenty to get excited about in the early games. Jahlil Okafor has shown off his polished low-post game (as well as some better than expected passing). Justise Winslow is taking the country by storm with his relentless play. And Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones have combined for 70 assists and only 13 turnovers.

Last year, Duke was just 2-2 through four games, making this year’s hot start even more refreshing. While it’s easy to imagine the Blue Devils winning the ACC and making a deep run in March, this team does have its vulnerabilities. No team is perfect (OK, maybe Kentucky). Here are a few weaknesses that could lead to some bumps in the road for Duke.

Free-Throw Shooting

Duke is shooting just under 70 percent from the charity stripe so far this year, and the two players likely to get to the line the most have yet to find any consistency.

Okafor is shooting just 52 percent, and Winslow is at 60 percent. Okafor has not been to the line much yet, but his physical style of play should land him on the line plenty throughout the season. Winslow has taken 17 more free throws than anyone else, and his constant attacking style is sure to continue to draw fouls as the season goes on. Amile Jefferson, who figures to get to the line a fair amount due to his style of play, is also at just 59 percent.

Even when Duke misses its free throws, however, it still gains the advantage of getting the other team in foul trouble and getting to the bonus quickly. Okafor and Jefferson will continue to get to the line as they operate almost exclusively in the paint, but they need to improve their shooting (Jefferson is already much better than early in his career).

Winslow does not seem like the type to shy away from contact, but some players grow to avoid it if they struggle at the line. Regardless of his percentage, he needs to keep his attacking style of play. If he becomes timid about driving and getting fouled, Duke’s offense could become more stagnant and reliant on outside shooting.

Fortunately for Duke, the team has guards who are capable of draining multiple free throws at the end of close games. Cook has yet to miss this year, Tyus Jones is at 87 percent and Rasheed Sulaimon has been accurate from the arc throughout his career.

Foul Trouble

This is less of a problem than it was last year, because Duke is much deeper. With so many capable guards, the team can pretty much handle any backcourt foul trouble with ease. The potential problem lies more with the bigs of the team.

Okafor picked up four fouls (all offensive) against Michigan State and had to be taken out of a close game with about eight minutes left. The team actually went on a run—due to some hot shooting from Tyus Jones—but that may not always happen.

Marshall Plumlee is a capable backup who plays with tons of energy, but the offense completely changes when Okafor leaves the floor. Duke needs Okafor to stay on the court as much as possible in order for the offense to run smoothly. Without him, we may see some ugly stretches of cold shooting and no penetration, which has happened all too often over the years.

Winslow and Jefferson also need to stay out of foul trouble in order for the team to perform optimally. Winslow is the only true small forward on the team, and though he is capable of playing some power forward, he does not hit the boards quite as hard as Jefferson does. Winslow picked up two early fouls against Army and played just 12 minutes.

If one of those two has to be taken out for significant minutes in a big game, Duke will lose the lineup versatility that has been a staple of the team so far.

While Duke is unlikely to face a situation like last year when Rodney Hood played center against Syracuse, it could still be hurt if the forwards commit too many fouls early.

Injuries

Duke has not suffered any injuries this season, but all fans have to constantly be wary of them—and Duke fans should be especially nervous given the team’s recent history. Losing Kyrie Irving and Ryan Kelly for extended periods in years past dramatically changed two seasons for Duke.

On Sunday against Army, Okafor took an awkward fall and was slow to get up. He remained in the game, but it sent a scare into the arena as fans pondered what would happen if he were to be lost for a long time.

Losing Okafor would fundamentally change Duke’s approach to games. Duke would also lose a lot of flexibility with the loss of either Winslow or Jefferson. Both players tend to throw their bodies around recklessly and will need to play safely in order to avoid getting hurt.

Although players can play intelligently to reduce the likelihood of injury, there is nothing they can do to guarantee an injury-free season, which is why fans hold their breath whenever a player hits the floor.

So, hit free throws, avoid fouls and don’t get injured. The first two can be improved through practice. Two out of three ain’t bad.