Alabama vs. Missouri: Preview, Predictions for SEC Championship Game 2014
It will be one of the SEC’s relative newcomers against the most established brand in the league and perhaps all of college football Saturday in a clash for the conference crown.
Alabama and Missouri will square off in the SEC Championship on Saturday in Atlanta at 4 p.m. ET with a potential spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. What’s more, head coaches Nick Saban and Gary Pinkel were actually teammates at Kent State back in the '70s and will likely be looking for some bragging rights against each other in this one.
If the Crimson Tide wins, it is almost assured a spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff. That may create a bit more pressure for Alabama than Missouri, but that is the exact championship-or-bust pressure that the Tide plays under in every single game.
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Interestingly, Saban has more national titles (three) than SEC titles (two) during his tenure at Alabama.
As for Missouri, this game represents a golden opportunity to legitimize itself to the rest of the nation after that early loss to Indiana. The team can also clinch a selection committee bowl game in the process. There is still a slight chance the Tigers could sneak into a backdoor and reach the playoff if complete chaos reigns atop the rankings in Week 15, but erasing that Indiana loss from the public consciousness should be motivation enough.
Missouri will have to stop the Blake Sims and Amari Cooper combination if it hopes to win.
Sims will be looking for some redemption after he threw three interceptions against Auburn and fell behind by 12 points in the second half. Eventually, he realized that throwing the ball to Cooper was a great strategy, and Cooper finished with 224 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
He made mincemeat of any Auburn defender who tried to cover him and set a record in the process, via ESPN Stats & Info:
If Missouri is to stop Alabama's offense, it will be on the back of its relentless pass rush.
Shane Ray has 14 sacks on the year, while Markus Golden checks in with nine. That is as formidable of a pass-rushing duo as you will find in the SEC, and it has to get to Sims so the secondary isn’t forced to cover Cooper for too long.
This Missouri defense has been solid all season, but it was exposed against the run in its two losses. Indiana finished with 241 rushing yards (including 132 from superstar Tevin Coleman), and Georgia posted 210 yards on the ground (including 143 from Nick Chubb).
Individual runners can beat this defense, and Alabama has a couple of bruisers in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry that plan to do just that.
Look for the Tide to pound the running game early and often, which will force Missouri to move its safeties up closer to the box. That is when Sims will hit Cooper over the top for long, backbreaking touchdown passes.
The question will then become whether Missouri’s offense can counter and perhaps even push the tempo like Auburn did when it scored 44 against the Crimson Tide.
Mike Herndon of AL.com discussed the Missouri offense before Alabama clinched the SEC West:
"Missouri's offense isn't among the most prolific in the conference, but the Tigers thrive on balance. They entered the game averaging 177 yards rushing per game and 183 yards through the air…Job one for the Crimson Tide or Bulldog defenses would be shutting him and Murphy down, destroying that balance and forcing Mauk to carry the offense by himself.
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Maty Mauk and the passing offense is only mustering 189.9 yards a game through the air after the Arkansas game. A Mauk-led offense is not exactly built to come back from deficits against elite talent like Alabama has, even though the Tigers do have some comebacks this season. Those comebacks didn’t come against the NFL-caliber talent in the secondary for the Crimson Tide.
In addition, Alabama’s defense will be out to send a message after struggling against Auburn. Saban certainly didn’t sound pleased with the effort on that side of the ball. According to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, "We haven't played a lot of games where we give up 44 points and win. That's not really our style."
A motivated Alabama defense, bruising Alabama running backs and Cooper on the outside is an unfortunate combination for Missouri. The Tigers simply don’t have the talent to match up in this one, and it will show on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Missouri 17
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