College Football Bowl Projections 2014: Latest Playoff Predictions After Week 14
It was right about now in past college football seasons that commentators and fans were trying to understand the algorithms behind the BCS rankings and what it would take for certain teams to move up or down.
Now, the College Football Playoff contenders only have to worry about impressing a selection committee of humans with quality wins, style points and conference championships.
Week 15 represents an opportunity for a number of potential playoff teams to clinch their respective conferences. How much weight the selection committee will put on those league titles remains to be seen, but it is sure to make a difference.
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Here is a look at my latest playoff projections, which operate under the idea that conference titles will be given plenty of credence, before looking at some matchups to watch in Week 15.
Scott Polacek's Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Week 15 In-Game Matchups to Watch
Week 15 features a handful of conference championships and important battles that will shape the playoff race. However, there are individual matchups within those contests that will determine the winners.
In the Big Ten Championship, Ohio State's run defense will get its stiffest test of the year against Melvin Gordon Saturday night. How it performs takes on even more importance considering superstar quarterback J.T. Barrett is out for the remainder of the season with a broken ankle.
The Buckeyes let Minnesota’s David Cobb rumble for 145 yards and three touchdowns, Indiana’s Tevin Coleman run for 228 yards and three touchdowns and even Michigan’s Drake Johnson tally two rushing touchdowns.
Gordon is a different animal than all of them and has a ridiculous 2,260 rushing yards on the season, which is good for 188 yards a game. He also put up a head-turning 408 rushing yards against Nebraska in three quarters and is a one-man wrecking crew who could ruin the Buckeyes' playoff hopes with another monster game.
Gordon could also solidify himself as a serious Heisman Trophy candidate behind Oregon’s Marcus Mariota with a productive game.
Elsewhere, Florida State’s tendency to fall behind early in games will be tested against Georgia Tech’s ball-control offense that will keep the clock running and the chains moving.
The Seminoles struggled to pull away from Oklahoma State, Clemson, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami, Boston College and Florida this season but somehow won all of them in the final quarter.
The Seminoles still deserve credit for winning all those games, as head coach Jimbo Fisher said, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com:
"First time in school history we ever went back-to-back undefeated regular seasons. With all the great teams (that have been here), that shows how hard that is to do. ... That just doesn't happen. It's a true testament to our players and assistant coaches, what they've done.
But, that's not our ultimate accomplishment and we've got a lot more to play for.
"
First up before that ultimate accomplishment is a date with the Yellow Jackets, who are fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game and are built to protect leads.
If Florida State once again finds itself behind down the stretch, it may not even have the ball to attempt a comeback in the closing minutes if Georgia Tech is keeping it on the ground.
While the Buckeyes rush defense going up against Gordon and the Seminoles going up against their own tendency to fall behind early and the clock control of Georgia Tech are conceptual matchups, the individual showdown between Oregon’s Mariota and Arizona’s Scooby Wright will play a large role in determining who wins the Pac-12.
Mariota is a household name, but Wright is an under-the-radar leader on the defensive side. Joel Klatt of Fox Sports pointed out just how impressive Wright is, while Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports was seemingly disappointed by Wright’s lack of national recognition.
Wright sacked and stripped Mariota in Arizona’s regular-season win over Oregon in the Ducks’ final drive. The fact that Wright was the one who scooped the fumble up only felt appropriate.
His counterpart, Mariota, is the Heisman Trophy front-runner and has simply eviscerated defenses this season. Mariota will be fresh off an Oregon State win where he accounted for six touchdowns and more than 400 yards of total offense by himself. Most teams don’t get that type of production in a day.
However, he only finished with a single rushing yard and two touchdowns in his first matchup with Arizona. Wright's tenacious defense was a big part of that middle-of-the-road production.
He will have to control the tempo from the defensive side again Friday if the Wildcats have any hope of upsetting the Ducks for the second time this year.
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