Iron Bowl 2014: Odds and Storylines to Watch in Auburn vs. Alabama Showdown
The Iron Bowl is something that gets talked about every day in the state of Alabama. For every other college football fan, this year's showdown between Auburn and Alabama has been 364 days in the making.
It will be impossible for the 2014 showdown to match what happened last year. You had a rare spot where both teams were fighting for a shot in the SEC Championship Game and potential national championship matchup with Florida State.
When you combine that with the way Auburn wound up winning last year's Iron Bowl, this year will be like a sequel to an all-time classic movie. No matter how good it is, it will always be unfairly judged by its predecessor.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
However, since we are talking about one of the great rivalries in sports, don't underestimate the chances for something shocking happening in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Whatever goes down, here are how the oddsmakers see things shaking out and the storylines to keep an eye on.
| Spread | Over/Under |
| Alabama (-9.5) | 54 |
Auburn's Spread-Option Offense vs. Alabama's Defense
Even though it often seems like nothing can crack the walls of Nick Saban's defense, there has been one thing that's given it problems in the past: fast, up-tempo, spread-option offenses.
We saw it when Johnny Manziel was the quarterback at Texas A&M and in last year's Iron Bowl. Alabama gave up 393 total yards and 296 rushing yards to Auburn in 2013. For perspective on how much of an anomaly that was, look at Alabama's overall defensive stats from last season, via StatMilk:
It's no surprise, then, that Saban was one of the head coaches who was in favor of the proposed rule change that would have made it mandatory for teams to wait at least 10 seconds between plays before snapping the ball. The proposal was eventually shot down.
While Alabama hasn't gone against a spread-option offense as good as Auburn's this season, the closest comparison on the Crimson Tide schedule is Mississippi State.
Mississippi State was able to move the ball against Alabama in that game, racking up 428 yards, but it was ultimately undone by three interceptions from quarterback Dak Prescott.
Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall may not have the number of Heisman moments that Prescott has had this season, but he's been every bit as efficient, with 26 total touchdowns and six interceptions. The senior had only 97 passing yards in last year's Iron Bowl, yet he still managed to throw two touchdown passes.
Saban has praised Marshall's development as a passer this season, per Marquavius Burnett of The Anniston Star:
Because opposing teams have to sell out against Auburn's rushing attack, the play-action passing game opens up. Gus Malzahn doesn't want to be in a spot where he must rely on throwing to win, but at least he knows Marshall is capable of shouldering the load if the Tigers need to eat up a lot of yards through the air.
Everything Alabama does on defense works through the defensive line. So if Auburn is able to exploit that like it did last year, there will be a lot of worried faces in Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.
Will Auburn Stop The Big Plays?
Going to the other side, with Alabama's offense against Auburn's defense, Malzahn has a lot of work to do with his team. The Tigers' problems this season have come because they struggle to stop opposing teams from moving the ball.
In fact, when you look at the defensive ratings for both teams, it's not even close. Here's how they stack up head-to-head, via StatMilk:
When it comes to points allowed, Auburn is giving up 23.5 points per game compared to 14.5 for Alabama. If you want to look deeper than that, the Tigers have allowed 179 points in their last five SEC games. Alabama has allowed 159 points all year.
Considering Auburn will be going against the dual-threat quarterback in Blake Sims and the country's best deep threat in Amari Cooper, this defense can't afford another lackluster showing.
Joel A. Erickson of AL.com noted that Auburn will look to change up some of its defensive plans because of how many wide receivers have given the defense problems:
"Wide receivers who play with a lot of strength have given Auburn fits. Mississippi State's De'Runnya Wilson caught four passes for 72 yards, South Carolina's Pharoh Cooper piled up seven catches for 127 yards, Ole Miss receiver LaQuon Treadwell had 10 grabs for 103 and Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds came away with six catches for 88 yards.
"
Amari Cooper has had only one game this year in which he was held without a reception of at least 20 yards. It's no surprise that was also Alabama's lowest-scoring game of the year, against Arkansas on October 11.
It's no secret that Auburn has to contain Cooper if it wants to pull off the upset, Sims has 20 touchdown passes this year. Cooper has caught 11 of them. As a team, Alabama has 3,079 passing yards. Cooper enters the game with 1,349 receiving yards. No one else on the roster has more than 319 yards.
Alabama doesn't have a quick-strike offense, but Cooper can rack up a lot of yards in a hurry. Auburn needs to play its best defensive game of the year against the nation's best receiver to have a shot in this game.
If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
