SEC Championship Game 2014: Analyzing How Title Clash Could Impact Final Playoff
One half of the SEC Championship Game is set following Missouri's 21-14 win over Arkansas on Friday. Now, it's up to Alabama and Mississippi State to figure out that final place.
The Tigers are headed to Atlanta for the second year in a row, the gravity of which wasn't lost on head coach Gary Pinkel. After the game, he said, per Missouri's official website:
"It means an awful lot to me. I love my team. This has not been an easy year, but we battled and competed. I feel thankful for all the people around me. Mizzou Athletic Director, Mike Alden, has been tremendously important to me and our fans too. We sold Faurot out tonight and this place was rocking. There are a lot of things to be thankful for. Whoever we play next week, it's going to be a huge game. It's our second time down there (Atlanta, Ga.) in a row, and I'll tell you this, that's hard to do.
"
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No conference championship has more playoff implications than the SEC title game. The result will not only have an effect on the SEC but also the Big 12 and Big Ten, whose top teams are on the playoff periphery at the moment.
You can view the most recent playoff rankings below. (Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)
While it's not yet known who will play Missouri, the field is narrowed to an extent that you can examine the few different playoff scenarios.
SEC Championship Scenarios
Missouri Wins SEC
Strictly from a neutral perspective, this one might be the most interesting, if only to see whether the playoff committee would throw in a two-loss Missouri ahead of TCU/Baylor or Ohio State.
Beating Arkansas is unlikely to have a radical effect on the Tigers' place in the playoff rankings. Missouri should be hanging around 15th or 16th by the time it's in the conference championship. So the issue would then become how beating Mississippi State or Alabama would be enough to make the Tigers jump 10-plus spots into the top four.
The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are good, but they aren't that good.
On the basis of this year, it'd be hard to argue for sending Missouri into the playoff. The Tigers lost at home to Indiana and were shut out 34-0 at home to Georgia. Not to mention that outside of beating the Bulldogs or Crimson Tide, they wouldn't have a great track record.
According to CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon, Missouri has one win over an SEC team that finished over .500 in the conference in the last two years:
Missouri's best non-conference win was against an 8-3 UCF.
If Ohio State ends up losing in the Big Ten Championship Game, then the Tigers will have earned a playoff spot. Otherwise, the playoff should favor OSU and one of TCU or Baylor.
11-2 Alabama Wins SEC
Unlike Missouri, an 11-2 Alabama would have a strong case to finish in the top four in the event the Crimson Tide won the SEC championship. The wins over Texas A&M and West Virginia have lost some significance, but 'Bama would still have nice victories over Missouri, Mississippi State and LSU.
That would in all likelihood be enough to get the Tide in ahead of TCU/Baylor or Ohio State. The Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship, which could hurt in terms of perception, while it's no secret that Ohio State's road hasn't been the most daunting.
Beating Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game could put the Buckeyes over the hump, but TCU or Baylor would still have a hard time in a head-to-head tale of the tape with Alabama.
11-1 Mississippi State/Alabama Wins SEC
This is by far the easiest scenario to forecast. One of Mississippi State or Alabama finishes 11-1, wins the SEC and likely takes the top seed in the playoff. It's that simple.
The idea of the SEC champion making the playoff has essentially been a foregone conclusion for the entire season. The biggest question about the conference was whether it would send, one, two, three or four teams. Heck, maybe the committee thought about making a special dispensation so as to allow every SEC team into the playoff.
Instead, it looks like the SEC champion is the only team from the Southeast headed into the playoff.
The playoff committee obviously has no dog in the fight, but the committee members must be hoping that this is how things play out. Their jobs would be much more straightforward as a result.
Missouri/Alabama Wins SEC, Mississippi State Finishes 11-1
Here is where things would get really interesting. Would the selection committee really throw in a team that didn't even win its own conference, let alone its own division?
If the season ended right now, the Bulldogs would be in, and there's not a lot of time for things to change much. It's not a crazy prospect.
Bleacher Report and sports analytics expert Ed Feng crunched the numbers, and Mississippi State is a slight favorite to get into the top four ahead of TCU and Ohio State.
As discussed previously, an SEC champion Missouri would have a hard time cracking the top four. That opens the door for Mississippi State to enter the playoff even if it loses the SEC West. It would be a bit unfair for Mississippi State to go in ahead of Missouri, considering the Tigers would have beaten Alabama, which the Bulldogs failed to do.
The committee will likely want to make a strong stance in the first year of the playoff. The members shouldn't court disaster by having a non-champion go into the top four ahead of the conference champion.
CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd read over the CFP protocol and reached this conclusion:
"A non-champion would be selected only if it is "unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country."
Your response is: Define unequivocally. That's up to the CFP committee. It would be reasonable to conclude from that language conference champions will be favored.
"
Could Mississippi State still be one of the four best teams in the country despite not winning the SEC? Sure.
But the beauty of the playoff is that everything's decided on the field. It wouldn't make sense to throw in a team that didn't even win its own division.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
