Bowl Projections 2014: Updated Playoff Predictions, Odds After Thursday Results
The TCU Horned Frogs made their statement to the selection committee Thursday night in a 48-10 win over Texas, and it came with a Thanksgiving side dish of style points. The only question now is whether it will make a difference when the new College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday.
The Horned Frogs’ best chance may be chaos during the litany of rivalry games Saturday because they are still on the outside looking in at the top four.
With that in mind, read on for playoff projections from StatMilk, championship odds from Odds Shark and my own playoff predictions.
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(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)
StatMilk and Odds Shark Playoff Projections and Odds
| Alabama | 19/10 |
| Oregon | 77/20 |
| Florida State | 15/2 |
| Ohio State | 6/1 |
| Mississippi State | 10/1 |
| Baylor | 8/1 |
| TCU | 8/1 |
| UCLA | 50/1 |
*Odds to win national championship courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Friday morning at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
TCU States Its Case
Texas never had a chance against TCU Thursday, which says something about the Longhorns’ ultimate place in the Lone Star State pecking order (especially since Baylor already crushed Texas earlier in the season).
The Horned Frogs led the way with six forced turnovers, including five from Texas quarterback Tyrone Swoopes alone, and continually set the offense up with short field situations on numerous occasions.
That swarming defense controlled the tempo of a game that was never really in doubt from the opening moments and silenced the Longhorns fans early with a fumble recovery for the game’s first touchdown.
More importantly, TCU sent a message to the selection committee, even if the 6-6 Longhorns aren’t exactly a daunting opponent. Texas had won three in a row, and TCU handled it in dominating fashion.
Chris Fowler of ESPN, Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports and Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports all pointed out just how TCU’s dominance could shape the opinion of the selection committee:
Feldman’s statistic is particularly important because strength of schedule is such an important metric when discussing playoff worthiness.
TCU needed a statement win like this because of how vulnerable it looked in its last game against lowly Kansas. The Jayhawks are one of the worst Power Five conference teams in the entire country, and they very nearly shocked TCU in a game that required a second-half comeback from the Horned Frogs.
Max Olson of ESPN.com passed along a quote from wide receiver Josh Doctson that acknowledged how important those style points are this season:
However, there are still some issues with TCU’s ultimate resume that could hold it back in the race for the playoffs. It did lose in a head-to-head showdown with fellow playoff contender Baylor 61-58, which could loom large in the final rankings if the Bears beat Kansas State in their last game.
The two resumes from the Big 12 contenders would be awfully similar in that scenario, which is when head-to-head games come into play as a separation metric.
Another issue for TCU is that it wouldn’t be a lone conference champion if both it and Baylor won out. If Ohio State wins its last two games, it would be the outright Big Ten title holder, which could be the final difference-maker in the last rankings (it was in my playoff projections), especially since Mississippi State would be on the outside looking in at the SEC Championship Game.
For now, though, TCU can only control its own games. It certainly did just that against the Longhorns Thursday.
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