Auburn vs. Alabama: Stat Predictions for Top Performers in 2014 Iron Bowl
Chris Davis would like a word with those who do not believe an individual on his own can turn the Iron Bowl and the landscape of college football on its head.
Last year's kick return by Davis is one of the most memorable moments in an epic rivalry's history and beyond. It is also the reason Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide enters Tuscaloosa Saturday fuming angry for another shot at the Auburn Tigers.
"I get asked about it constantly," Alabama safety Landon Collins said, per Cliff Kirkpatrick of the Montgomery Advertiser. "Last year we saw it too many times. I mean it's just a constant thing that goes around and we can't think about it now. It's never going to leave until we do something about it."
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Auburn is 8-3, losers of two of its last three and severe underdogs. Alabama is 10-1 and in control of its College Football Playoff fate. Implications for an entire sport are rarely bigger than this.
As far as individuals who can alter the outcome on their own go, this game has plenty.
Top-Performer Predictions
Blake Sims
Alabama comes equipped with a serious Heisman contender in wideout Amari Cooper.
The status is rightfully earned, too, as Cooper is arguably the top receiver in the nation and has 1,349 yards and 11 scores this year on 90 grabs.
But in this particular contest it is the man who gets him the ball who will have a bigger impact on the game, especially with Cooper nursing a knee injury that may see him act as more of a decoy than anything.
That man is Blake Sims, who will start in his first Iron Bowl Saturday. The senior has 2,676 yards and 20 touchdowns this year with another 279 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
His efforts are the primary reason the Crimson Tide uncharacteristically rank well in most offensive categories and average better than 30 points per game.
As Tobin Petitpas of ESPN Stats & Information broke down, Sims' abilities with his feet have absolutely devastated opponents this season:
"On passes thrown from outside the pocket, he leads the SEC in completions (36) and completions of 20 yards or more (seven) and ranks second in touchdown passes behind Missouri’s Maty Mauk. When the pass has not been there, Sims has shown he can tuck the ball and run. He has been sacked seven times this season, third-fewest for any Power 5 quarterback with at least 200 dropbacks.
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Sims does not run a whole lot, but when he does it usually ends up as a major positive for the Crimson Tide.
A decent comparison to evaluate how Auburn's shaky defense will handle Sims can be found in the team's 38-23 loss to Mississippi State earlier this year. There, Dak Prescott threw for 246 yards and a score with another 121 yards and two scores on the ground.
Those numbers are on the high end for Sims, but it is clear his abilities will see him as a top performer by day's end.
Stat Prediction: 200 Pass Yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 75 Rush Yds, 1 TD
Nick Marshall
Auburn senior quarterback Nick Marshall is no stranger to making short work of the Crimson Tide defense.
Last year in the eventual win he went 11-of-16 for 97 yards and two scores with 17 carries for 99 yards and another touchdown on the ground.
Even Saban sounds cautious of what Marshall brings to the table and is among the many who concur that he is an improved passer this season.
“The guy is really, really a fantastic athlete, and he's very instinctive as a player, especially doing the things that they ask him to do in their offense,” Saban said, per Kelly Ward of The Tuscaloosa News. “He also has improved, in my opinion, quite a bit as a passer, much more efficient, much more confident."
It is hard to argue with the notion. Marshall completes 59.6 percent of his passes this season with 1,859 yards and 15 scores. He remains a serious threat on the ground, as noted by 731 more yards and 11 scores through that avenue.
Marshall is going to get his on the road Saturday. The dual-threat quarterback is something that takes Saban-led defenses out of their comfort zone and makes them adapt on the fly. He is his usual self on the ground and better than last year through the air, which is bad news for the Crimson Tide defense.
Stat Prediction: 175 Pass Yds, 1 TD, 125 Rush Yds, 2 TD
T.J. Yeldon
If there is one sure thing about this year's Iron Bowl, it is that Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon is set to run wild.
Those with great memories will recall that Yeldon put on one of his best performances of the season last year against the Tigers with 141 yards and a score on 26 carries.
Recent trends suggest an even bigger line may be in the works.
Yeldon is just as effective this year with 758 yards and six scores on a five yards per-carry average. Add in the fact that Saban has been resting his top back in order to get his absolute best this Saturday, per ESPN.com's Alex Scarborough:
Compounding the situation is the fact that the last team Auburn faced that is anywhere close to Alabama's rushing ability was Georgia—a squad that bulldozed its way for 289 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.
The Tigers allow 142.9 yards per game on the ground this season, which is something a healthy Yeldon can and will take advantage of on the way to gaudy numbers once again.
Whether that leads to a win is a great question, but Yeldon's ability to keep drives alive and reduce the pressure on Sims, while also lowering the time Marshall sees on the field, certainly puts the Crimson Tide in a great position.
Stat Prediction: 165 Rush Yds, 2 TD
Statistics and info courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.
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