5 Bold Predictions for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 13 Matchup
It’s probably not hyperbole to say that this Thursday’s game against the Seattle Seahawks is the biggest remaining game on the San Francisco 49ers’ schedule. A Week 17 game against Arizona might rate up there, but there’s every chance that the Cardinals could be clinched then and resting their starters.
The 49ers know that splitting the season series with Seattle is likely enough to give them a playoff spot. They also know how difficult it is to beat the Seahawks in Seattle—they’ve only managed that trick once since 2009, and then it was only by two points.
So that means that, with the nation watching on Thanksgiving night, the 49ers face a must-win game against their most bitter recent rivals. Just as they’ve had issues in Seattle, though, the Seahawks have had issues travelling to the Bay Area, where the 49ers have won the past five matchups.
Those were all in Candlestick Park, however. Levi’s Stadium offers a new, clean slate for both teams. Which one will succeed under the lights and end up taking a significant edge into the late NFC playoff race? While both teams are mathematically alive for everything even with a loss, it’s fair to say the loser will have no real chance of taking home the division, so there’s everything to play for here.
Let’s make some bold predictions for the contest and figure out what will or will not happen on Thursday night.
Russell Wilson Will Be Sacked Five Times
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With the return of a rested Aldon Smith and the emergence of rookie Aaron Lynch, the 49ers have a potentially lethal pass rush.
Over the last four weeks, the 49ers’ pass rush has kicked into another gear entirely. Here, from Pro Football Focus (subscription required), are the pass-rush stats from the 49ers’ leading rushers over the last four weeks:
DE Ray McDonald—Two sacks, two hits, 13 hurries
DE Justin Smith—One sack, three hits, seven hurries
OLB Aaron Lynch—Three sacks, one hit, 13 hurries
OLB Aldon Smith—Two sacks, four hits, seven hurries (in just two games)
Even the secondary is getting into the action some—rookie Dontae Johnson has a couple of big quarterback hits over the past month, as he was used to blitz well against the New York Giants.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ offensive line has been struggling recently. It allowed seven sacks last week against Arizona, and that’s not too large of an outlier—it's allowed three or more sacks in four of their 11 games so far this season and has yet to put up a clean slate.
The Seahawks will likely still be missing center Max Unger, and James Carpenter will only just be returning at left guard from a sprained ankle, so there’s no guarantee of how well he’ll play.
I see the 49ers sending their four big pass-rushers from a variety of angles and generally collapsing the pocket all night long.
Russell Wilson Will Run for 100-Plus Yards
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The downside to a lot of pressure on Russell Wilson is his ability to slip away and make huge plays with his legs. Wilson’s already gone for 100 or more yards three times this season, most recently against the New York Giants in Week 10. With a mix of designed runs and scrambles, Wilson finds a way to be the most threating quarterback in the league when running with the ball.
The 49ers have some experience handling players like that, as they have to go against Colin Kaepernick every week in practice, but Wilson’s been phenomenal so far this season. He knows when to slip out and run with the ball, and he knows how to protect himself when doing so.
Football Outsiders, per Scott Kacsmar, analyzed four rushing quarterbacks over 2012 and 2013—Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, Kaepernick and Wilson. Of the four, the site found Wilson’s the hardest to hit cleanly. He is sliding, heading out of bounds or being hit as he’s going to the ground anyway. You rarely get a shot to blast him in mid-scramble—he’s good at protecting himself while still getting maximum value out of his runs.
I have the 49ers bringing a lot of pressure and sacking Wilson five times. That pressure, however, means that plays will break down rapidly, and Wilson will have some opportunities to make something out of nothing with some scrambles. I see him occasionally getting the edge on Aaron Lynch or Ray McDonald and finding some open room on broken plays.
In the four games where Wilson has been sacked three or more times, he’s averaging 85 yards rushing—constant pressure occasionally leads to big plays on the ground. I see him getting to triple digits on the ground as he runs from the blitz.
Crowd Noise Will Become a Factor
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So far, the 49ers haven’t had much of a home-field advantage at Levi’s Stadium. It takes some time for the familiarity with a stadium to develop for both the players and the fans, and up to this point, it hasn’t really jelled. The 49ers are only 3-2 at home, with two crushing losses to the Chicago Bears and St. Louis Rams weighing them down.
That will eventually change as everyone around the organization—including the fans—get used to the new stadium, and I think this week is where we start to see that take shape in terms of crowd noise.
Part of this will be the fact that it’s a night game—the stadium gets very hot during afternoon games because one-half of the stadium is entirely unshielded from the sun, which is going to dampen crowd noise and enthusiasm.
That won’t be an issue against the Seahawks in a night game. The added comfort for fans, plus the passion of a big rivalry game, should see the crowd come to life. I expect to see multiple false-start penalties, thanks to a rocking crowd in the Field of Jeans.
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Michael Crabtree Will Be Shut Down
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The matchup most people will be watching will be Michael Crabtree versus Richard Sherman, after their spirited conflict in last year’s conference championship game. It’s an old-school rivalry, one where the players in question seem to legitimately hate one another. It will be something to watch for this week, as the bombastic cornerback lines up across from the disgruntled receiver.
Crabtree has not had the season he was looking for entering his contract year. He’s been a distant second to Anquan Boldin in terms of raw numbers, and you could make the argument that third receiver Stevie Johnson has been outplaying him when he’s been on the field. He’s certainly not made the case to get a huge contract this offseason.
He’s also never had a real huge day against Seattle. In his career, Crabtree has 27 receptions for 298 yards and no touchdowns against the Seahawks—his worst totals among division rivals. That’s only 37 yards per game. His one good game against Seattle came back in 2011, where he caught five passes for 85 yards in Seattle, but other than that, it’s been nothing or worse.
I think we see another quiet game in what’s becoming a quiet season for Crabtree. It will be one more feather in the cap of Sherman.
Final Prediction
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The 49ers open the game with a touchdown on their opening drive behind the rushing prowess of Frank Gore, much like they did against Washington. Then, things cool off for a bit. The 49ers are able to get a little bit of offense going, but generally they stall out somewhere around the 30-yard line. Phil Dawson kicks three second-half field goals to keep the scoring going.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks start off slow with a couple of first-half field goals, but they score a touchdown just before halftime to take a 13-7 lead. After Dawson’s second-half field goals put the 49ers back on top, Russell Wilson marches the Seahawks down the field and scrambles in for a touchdown himself, giving Seattle a 20-16 lead with four minutes to play.
Starting on their own 20, Colin Kaepernick leads a comeback drive with short, controlled passes, eating up chunks of yardage at a time. He uses his feet once or twice as well, pushing the Seahawks back on their heels.
With 30 seconds left in the game, the 49ers find themselves on the Seattle 20-yard line. Crabtree lines up across from Sherman and runs a deep fade route to the corner of the end zone, with Sherman staying with him every step of the way. Kaepernick looks, sees that Crabtree might just have a step…
…and turns and fires to Boldin on the deep post for the game-winning touchdown. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…
Prediction: San Francisco 23, Seattle 20
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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