Bowl Projections 2014: Breaking Down Best Potential Non-Playoff Matchups
The final weekend of November is a busy time. In addition to that holiday Thursday, the final slate of regular-season games in college football represents the final paradigm shift for all 39 bowl games.
Even though there are conference championship games December 6 that will have a ripple effect on the College Football Playoff, this weekend is the last time all 128 FBS schools will have a chance to secure their spot in a bowl game.
While the official bowl selections won't be known for over one week, there are already projections that make it easy to see where things stand and where they could be headed depending on how things play out over the next 10 days.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here are the best potential games for the 2014-15 bowl season, excluding the College Football Playoff matchups, because it would be easy to solely focus on those games.
| Bowl | Matchup |
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State |
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor |
Bowl projections via Christopher Wilson of Yahoo Sports
Peach Bowl (TBD vs. TBD): Michigan State vs. Georgia
Depending on what happens in the SEC Championship Game, it's possible to see Alabama or Mississippi State fall into this spot.
Hopefully, unless you are a fan of Georgia or Mississippi State, that doesn't happen. The potential for a Michigan State vs. Georgia showdown in any bowl game, let alone one of the non-marquee bowls, is so rich that it has to be fattening.
Even though the Big Ten has been a whipping boy for years, it's time to start giving the conference its due. Ohio State is a legitimate title contender. Michigan State stuck around Oregon at Autzen Stadium for 40 minutes before the hinges came off. Wisconsin and Minnesota are solid football teams, worthy of their Top 25 rankings.
The Spartans have a deserved reputation for being a defensive-minded team, but Chris Vannini of CoachingSearch.com noted the team has already set a school record for points in a season with 483 and two more games left (including the bowl):
If there is a concern for Michigan State in this spot, it's surprisingly on defense. In the Spartans' two biggest games of the year—against Oregon and Ohio State—they allowed 95 points. For comparison, against everyone else, they have allowed 134 points in nine games.
Mark Dantonio has built Michigan State into one of the best programs in the country. In order for the Spartans to take that next step into the elite category, a win against one of the best SEC schools is paramount.
On the other side, Georgia is similar to Michigan State based on its performance this year. The Bulldogs are still looking for a signature win, as the blowout against Auburn looks less impressive today than it did two weeks ago.
Mark Richt's team also stubbed its toe in a key rivalry game, though Florida isn't in the same category as Ohio State right now. One thing that has been impressive about Georgia's season is the way it's adjusted without Todd Gurley on two different occasions.
Nick Chubb is already one of the best running backs in the country as a freshman, with 1,152 yards and 11 touchdowns on 161 carries. He's also been racking up individual weekly awards for that effort, per Tanya Sichynsky of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution:
Georgia has the better running game, while Michigan State has developed a very good passing game with Connor Cook at quarterback. Both defenses have been solid, save for a couple of hiccups. Something has to give, so what better way to settle the differences than in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl?
Liberty Bowl (Big 12 vs. SEC): West Virginia vs. Arkansas
West Virginia has fallen off a cliff since the calendar flipped to November, losing three straight games. Two of them are justifiable, because TCU is a College Football Playoff contender and Kansas State has been hovering around the Top 10 all year.
But the Mountaineers' loss to Texas, which was sandwiched in between those other two losses, that sticks out. They got blown out of the water in Austin, trailing 24-3 at halftime and allowing 227 rushing yards.
However, this is still a West Virginia team that was competitive with Alabama in the season opener and ended Baylor's chances for an undefeated season with a 41-27 win. There's a very good team lurking in the shadows for Dana Holgorsen waiting to explode at some point.
While West Virginia seems to have peaked early and is getting a rough dose of reality late, Arkansas might be the most dangerous 6-5 team in the country. The Razorbacks' 2-5 SEC record is deceiving because three of those losses came by seven points or less.
The last two games have shown how dangerous this Arkansas team is, pitching back-to-back shutouts against LSU and Mississippi. The latter victory could have a huge impact on the final playoff rankings, because a potential Mississippi State win over the Rebels won't look as impressive now.
To further illustrate how impressive and difficult Arkansas' season has been, despite the mediocre record, Matt Hinton of Grantland.com presented this stat in his weekly college wrap-up:
"Altogether, Arkansas has faced seven ranked opponents this season — that is, in every conference game, which must be some kind of record — and has played each of them to a virtual standstill: Including A&M’s winning touchdown in overtime, the Razorbacks have been outscored in those games by a grand total of five points.
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It's not the sexiest matchup by records, but a West Virginia-Arkansas showdown could end up being the one between two teams outside the Top 25 rankings that has the most impact on the College Football Playoff rankings.
Fiesta Bowl (TBD vs. TBD): UCLA vs. Boise State
If UCLA vs. Boise State were an NFL playoff game, it would be highlighted as the one with two teams that have overcome early struggles and are playing their best football at the right time.
UCLA came into the season with tremendous hype as the No. 7 team in the Associated Press preseason Top 25. You wouldn't know why based on the first few weeks, which included unimpressive wins over Virginia, Memphis and Texas.
Back-to-back losses against Utah and Oregon seemed to suggest the Bruins were all hype and no substance when they went up against quality teams. Five straight wins, including a dominant effort against USC, have brought UCLA back into the national conversation.
Not all of the victories have been pretty, like a double-overtime win against Colorado, but as Florida State has proved, all that matters is the final score. Brett Hundley is peaking at the right time, as his stat line against USC indicates, via ESPN College Football:
Speaking of peaking, Boise State is slowly moving back into the national conversation again. The Broncos' schedule isn't the sexiest, losing their only game against a ranked team (Mississippi) by 22, but they are going to get in a big game by virtue of having so many spots available.
A matchup against a good-not-great UCLA team would be the perfect reintroduction for Boise State. The Broncos won't be completely outmatched, like they would be against a mid-level SEC or top-tier Big Ten team, and we've seen in the past what this school can do on the big stage.
The Broncos also have a quarterback playing well, as highlighted by the Boise State Football official Twitter account:
Points would be plentiful in this matchup, as the Bruins rank 70th in scoring defense and the Broncos are 79th. It's not a glamorous matchup, like a potential Michigan State-Georgia showdown, but it should be a fun one to watch.
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