5 Bold Predictions for Vikings' Week 13 Matchup
Despite having the appearance of just a boring matchup between sub-.500 teams, there will be plenty at stake when the Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) battle the Minnesota Vikings (4-7) at TCF Bank Stadium—home of the soon-to-be crowned Big Ten West champion University of Minnesota Golden Gophers—this Sunday afternoon.
While the Green Bay Packers (8-3) unofficially eliminated the Vikings from the 2014 NFL playoffs last weekend, Carolina is still very much in playoff contention, despite having an even worse record than Minnesota through Week 12. In fact, with a Panthers victory and losses by the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons (4-7) and New Orleans Saints (4-7), Carolina would be in sole possession of first place.
Simply put, the Panthers are in contention for a division crown and the Vikings are playing to contend next season.
For a team like Minnesota that features so many young players in prominent roles, every game is an opportunity, no matter the stakes. Besides, Teddy Bridgewater, Jerick McKinnon, Charles Johnson and the rest of the Vikings offense have plenty of work to do before they could make anything happen in the playoffs anyway.
The Vikings may technically be out of playoff contention, but head coach Mike Zimmer either doesn't know, doesn't care or hates losing too much to mail this one in. If the Panthers want their fourth victory of the season, they are going to have to earn it the old-fashioned way.
Here are five bold predictions for the Vikings' Week 13 matchup against Cam Newton and the Panthers.
Jerick McKinnon Will Finally Find the End Zone
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In his rookie season with the Vikings, Jerick McKinnon has totaled 538 rushing yards, 135 receiving yards and is averaging slightly less than five yards per rushing attempt. Not bad for a guy who had been almost completely overlooked until the NFL combine. Yet, something is missing from his impressive rookie resume: a touchdown.
McKinnon has had a featured role in the Vikings' backfield for eight games now and has more recently become accustomed to receiving the majority of the team's carries each week. Still, 113 carries into his NFL career, the former Georgia Southern quarterback is yet to find the end zone.
After seeing his counterpart Matt Asiata vulture multiple touchdowns from him throughout the season, one can only imagine how anxious McKinnon is to put six points on the board for his team.
At long last, McKinnon's moment has come. He will always remember Week 13 against the Panthers as the game he scored his first NFL touchdown.
While McKinnon has had multiple great opportunities against the Falcons, Buccaneers and Bears, the Panthers may be his best chance yet. In comparison to the rest of the NFL, the Panthers rank 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game (119.1), 26th in average yards allowed per carry (4.4), are tied for 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed (13) and allowed the second-longest run of the season (89 yards).
As stated previously, McKinnon has had plenty of opportunities to receive carries against poor run defenses in the past, so what makes Carolina special?
Simply, Carolina doesn't just allow opposing rushers to have consistent success on the ground, it is allowing the explosive plays as well. The Panthers have allowed four touchdowns from 10 or more yards away from the end zone and eight carries of 20 or more yards this season. In comparison, only Justin Forsett (12) and DeMarco Murray (10) have totaled more 20-plus yard rushes than Carolina's defense has allowed this season.
Although Asiata is still going through concussion protocol and possibly will not even be available to snake a red-zone score away from McKinnon, someone else will be. Of McKinnon's 113 carries this season, a grand total of seven have came in the red zone. Last weekend Joe Banyard was in the Vikings' backfield when the was inside their opponent's 20-yard line, and this weekend it will either be him again or possibly the recently signed Ben Tate.
As a result, McKinnon is going to have to get the job done from far away. He is fast, agile and has shown good instincts, making him an ideal candidate for a long touchdown run. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he ranks 11th in elusive rating (43.0), 13th in breakaway percentage (27.9) and has avoided 14 tackles throughout the season, proving his skill set has yielded results this season.
If McKinnon can't break the long one on the ground, hope isn't lost against the Panthers. In addition to the 13 rushing touchdowns allowed this season, Carolina has yielded three receiving touchdowns to running backs as well.
McKinnon's strengths as a runner combined with Carolina's defensive flaws are a match made in Heaven. So fire up "The Jet" and watch him burn and turn all the way to paydirt.
Captain Munnerlyn Will Make His Former Team Pay
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After five successful seasons of covering wide receivers in Carolina, cornerback Captain Munnerlyn signed a three-year contract with the Vikings this past offseason. Now he has a chance to haunt his former team. Considering the Panthers' issues with turnovers in recent weeks and Munnerlyn's nearly unrivaled defensive playmaking ability, expect Carolina's seventh-round pick in 2009 to have himself a day.
Since Munnerlyn became a member of the NFL over five seasons ago, he has recorded nine interceptions (two so far this season), 43 pass defenses, five defensive touchdowns, four forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. While these numbers are eye-popping, the fact he returned four consecutive interceptions for touchdowns during his final two seasons in Carolina is simply unmatchable.
On top of forcing turnovers and turning them into six points with relative ease, Munnerlyn is also an elite run-stopper. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks tied for second among cornerbacks with eight stops this season, which ultimately adds up to a sixth-ranked stop percentage of 2.8. Additionally, the Vikings' 5'9" defensive leader rarely misses tackles when he gets the opportunity, as he has only one missed tackle through eleven games this season.
While Munnerlyn seemingly does not require any extra help to make big plays on defense, the Panthers have basically been handing the football away this season. Carolina ranks ninth in the NFL this season with 19 turnovers with 10 (tied-13th) coming via the interception and the remaining nine (tied-sixth) coming by means of putting the ball on the ground. Furthermore, two of their 19 turnovers have been returned for touchdowns by opposing teams this season, leaving Carolina susceptible to Munnerlyn's wrath.
Carolina's turnover issues have been especially problematic as of late. Over the team's past three games against the Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Falcons, Newton alone has accounted for six interceptions, three fumbles and two fumbles lost.
While interceptions do happen—especially when you are throwing to a rookie wide receiver and the men in charge of protecting you can't even block their family members on Facebook—the fumbles are becoming a major concern for Newton. According to Team Rankings, Newton ranks tied for third in fumbles (seven) and is tied for second in fumbles lost (five) this season.
The Panthers simply have too much working against them for Munnerlyn, who likely has had his eyes on this contest for weeks, to not have a big impact this weekend. If he wasn't fired up enough to face his former team already, his former teammate Josh Norman poured a little gasoline on the fire to make things interesting:
"#Panthers' Josh Norman: Vikings Capt Munnerlyn has "little man syndrome,"didn't help Norman when they were teammates. http://t.co/IQlivcOdXf
— Joe Person (@josephperson) November 24, 2014"
No short person likes being called short, no team leader likes being told he can't lead and nobody will stop Munnerlyn from unleashing the beast this Sunday.
Teddy Bridgewater Will Lead an Efficient Offense
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As this slide show moves forward, the predictions become bolder; that is just how this works. After 12 weeks of mediocre offensive performances, with exception to Week 4 against the Falcons, it is time for the Vikings offense to wake up—and it will.
Let's begin by letting the facts do the talking. Minnesota's offense ranks 30th in the NFL in total yards per game (309.0), and the especially terrible aerial attack ranks 29th with an average of 192.5 yards per game.
While the previously mentioned running attack led by McKinnon has not been awful (13th), there is certainly room for improvement.
After reaching a new low against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago, the Vikings offense put together a pretty solid performance against the Packers in a losing effort last Sunday.
Bridgewater threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in his career and the Vikings offense surpassed their 27th-ranked average point total of 18.4.
This massive improvement (relative to the Bears game) was largely a product of Bridgewater attempting—and having some success—throwing the ball down the field. For comparative purposes, he attempted one throw, which was intercepted, of 20 yards or more against the Bears and four against the Packers, according to Pro Football Focus.
Although three more pass attempts is by no means a dramatic change, it certainly opened up the field considerably more. Bridgewater only completed one of his four downfield passes—while it was a beautiful touchdown pass to Johnson—but he could have had a few more if not for the continuation of his accuracy issues and a dropped pass.
Moving forward, these statistics show, at the very least, the Vikings have slightly improved on offense and Bridgewater should only continue to get better as he grows with the offense. Regardless, the real factor in this bold prediction equation is the Panthers' terrible defense.
Carolina's brutal run defense was covered during a previous slide so I will jump to their 26th-ranked pass defense, which is allowing an average of 255 passing yards per game. The Panthers pass defense has allowed 20 touchdown passes (tied-24th), 7.5 yards per attempt (19) and a simply unbelievable 30th ranked completion percentage of 67.7.
In addition, Luke Kuechly's unit is hardly even a threat to create turnovers or sack the quarterback. The Panthers have recorded nine interceptions (tied-18th) and a measly 23 sacks (tied-18th).
With all of these subpar ranks and statistics on the table, one would conclude a good offense would rip these guys to pieces—and they have. However, the Vikings offense, while improving, is not considered by anyone to be a threatening unit.
If the Vikings offense is going to take advantage of the opportunities the Panthers will ultimately present it with, it will need strong offensive line play. Considering Matt Kalil seemingly plays worse every weekend and Phil Loadholt is out for the season, this is a pretty large "if."
"The #Vikings make it official: Phil Loadholt has been placed on injured reserve, and the team has signed OT J'Marcus Webb.
— Master Tesfatsion (@MasterStrib) November 26, 2014"
Additionally, Mike Harris, the expected replacement starter for Loadholt this weekend, will go toe-to-toe with Carolina's best pass-rusher, Charles Johnson. This will be a huge test for the replacement right tackle, as Johnson, according to Pro Football Focus, has recorded four sacks and 31 hurries this season, despite playing on a defensive line that is feeble without Star Lotulelei.
Despite the offensive line issues and Cordarrelle Patterson essentially inactive, the Vikings offense will click this weekend. Bridgewater found a target he can trust and things can only improve from that point. But we will discuss the Vikings' Charles Johnson a bit later.
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Vikings Defense Will Sack Cam Newton Five Times
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While five sacks is a significant total, this prediction may not be bold enough considering what Newton's offensive line has put him through over the past few weeks.
Over the past three games, Newton has been sacked a ridiculous 15 times, which included a jaw-dropping nine-sack performance by the Eagles. In total, the Panthers have now allowed 33 sacks this season, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL this season.
Unfortunately, the Panthers' offensive line statistics only get worse from there. According to Pro Football Focus, the Panthers offensive line has a pass-blocking efficiency of 74.4 (30th) and has allowed 143 pressures (30th) in 446 passing plays this season. Simply, Carolina's offensive line is conceding a pressure on 32 percent of pass attempts this season.
Few offensive lines can match these disgraceful totals, two offensive lines to be exact, Minnesota's included. For reference, the Vikings offensive line has a pass-blocking efficiency of 73.5 and has conceded 145 total pressures this season.
Yet, it still gets worse for the Panthers offensive line. Following an injury to starting right tackle Nate Chandler and the extreme consistency issues of left guard Amini Silatolu, Carolina is expected to start rookies at right tackle, left guard and right guard this weekend.
According to Pro Football Focus, Carolina's offensive linemen are just as bad alone as they are in a group. The right tackle, David Foucault, currently holds the single-worst pass-blocking efficiency in the NFL (86.2), among tackles who have been in on 50 passing plays. His counterpart, Bryon Bell, has allowed 41 total pressures so far this season and ranks 106th in pass-blocking efficiency (91.7).
The rookies clogging up the guard holes for Carolina have very little experience, which is a problem in itself, but they have not accumulated enough playing time to provide an accurate diagram of success or failure.
While the outsides and immediate insides appear problematic, the Panthers' center has been a stud for a few seasons now. When it comes to Kalils, the Panthers won this battle. Ryan Kalil is the Panthers' center and has been for multiple seasons now. He is truly the only redeemable member of this group and should be considered Newton's personal, and only, bodyguard.
However, just like every other part of an NFL game, one player cannot save an entire group, 99 percent of the time. Matched up with one of the best defensive lines this season, Kalil and his line mates will have their work cut out for them.
According to Pro Football Focus, Minnesota's defensive ends have accounted for 86 total pressures and 12 sacks this season. While these numbers alone are pretty solid for an entire defensive line, the Vikings interior linemen create an even direr situation for Carolina's offensive line. Between Sharrif Floyd, Linval Joseph and Tom Johnson, the Vikings' defensive tackles have accounted for 59 total pressures and 13 sacks (excluding Shamar Stephen).
In comparison to the Detroit Lions defensive interior that helped account for four sacks on Newton earlier this season, the Vikings' defensive tackle trio has accounted for four more sacks than Ndamukong Suh and company's nine.
Between Pro Bowl-hopeful Everson Griffen and Brian Robison, the Vikings have developing stars flowing fluidly through their four-man front. If this outstanding group doesn't reach Newton, at the very least, five times on Sunday, credit Panthers' offensive coordinator Mike Shula for finally figuring out a new game plan to keep him upright.
For the record, these statistics only account for the Vikings defensive line. Anthony Barr, Chad Greenway and possible even Harrison Smith should be in on the fun as well.
Charles Johnson Will Have a Breakout Game
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Wait, who is Charles Johnson?
Well, a brief history of Johnson reveals him to be a 6'2", 215-pound, 2013 Packers seventh-round pick from Grand Valley State. The Packers would subsequently release him. Next, the Cleveland Browns and then-offensive coordinator Norv Turner signed him to their practice squad where he was ultimately signed from by the Vikings.
According to his 2013 draft profile, Johnson runs a lightning-fast 4.38 40-yard dash and combines a 39.5 vertical leap with some muscle, which he used to produce 14 lifts of 225 pounds on the bench press.
So, Johnson was a late-round pick with some talent and athleticism, but still, who is this guy? Simply, he is the guy Bridgewater feels comfortable throwing the ball to under any circumstances.
Over the past two games since assuming Patterson's role on offense—was on the field for 47 passing snaps compared to Patterson's 25 last weekend—Johnson has recorded nine receptions on 18 targets for 139 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown, according to Pro Football Focus.
In a matter of two weeks Johnson has become the vertical threat the Vikings have desperately been hoping for Patterson to become, as proven by his 34.5 percent deep pass target percentage. While this is not to say Patterson will never get there, Johnson clearly has leapfrogged him in terms of current readiness.
Simply, Johnson is ready to be the go-to guy if Bridgewater can deliver on-target passes, which he has struggled with so far. To put this proposition into perspective, Johnson has been targeted 10 times by Bridgewater on passes traveling 20 yards or more and only two have been considered catchable, according to Pro Football Focus. One pass resulted in a beautiful 22-yard touchdown reception and the other an equally-as-ugly combination of a drop and an underthrown pass.
Given the Panthers' struggles in pass defense, which were discussed during an earlier slide, this Sunday is not only the perfect opportunity for McKinnon to find the end zone, but it is the perfect opportunity for Johnson to have a breakout performance.
The term "breakout performance" is used in a number of different ways throughout the season. Some performances are ridiculous like Odell Beckham Jr.'s on Sunday Night Football, and others just establish a presence of a threat, as Jarvis Landry made apparent the previous couple of weeks.
With respect to Johnson, I expect this performance to be similar to what Landry has done for the Miami Dolphins.
Bridgewater is not the only person who will play an important role in deciding whether this bold prediction comes true. Based on total number of plays, it should be expected cornerbacks Antoine Cason and Melvin White will be in charge of keeping Johnson in check. Additionally, safeties Roman Harper and Thomas Decoud will factor into the equation if Turner elects to have Bridgewater unleash a couple deep balls.
According to Pro Football Focus, Cason and White have been two of the NFL's worst cornerbacks in coverage this season. Cason has allowed 53 receptions, five touchdowns (tied-seventh) and a quarterback rating of 116.5 (tied-ninth) on 67 targets and 384 plays this season.
White, who has played even worse, has conceded 24 receptions, four touchdowns (tied-18th) and a quarterback rating of 129.5 (second-worst) in response to 36 targets and 274 plays this season.
On paper, it would appear Johnson has a significant advantage over the Panthers' best cornerbacks and especially Cason, who registered a 4.45 40-yard dash time when he was drafted back in 2008.
Carolina rid its secondary of safety issues when it released Charles Godfrey earlier this season, as both Decoud and Harper have been consistently solid. While the free safety-strong safety pairing has combined for four interceptions this season, they have also seen 19 of 33 passes in their direction find the hands of a receiver, which is not too bad.
However, if Bridgewater were to complete 20-plus yard passes at a 57 percent clip this weekend, fewer people would be concerned with his deep ball accuracy. Regardless, Decoud and Harper will not be around to bail out Cason, White and possibly Norman most of the time, which should allow the Bridgewater-Johnson tandem plenty of room to succeed.
Johnson isn't a first-round talent, possessing uncanny athleticism and track star speed, but he is athletic with above average speed. Additionally, and most importantly to the Vikings and Bridgewater, he can create separation at the line of scrimmage and run crisp routes.
Bridgewater works hard every day to get better, but he needs a guy to practice on during live games. While Patterson perfects his own technique, Johnson will be this wide receiver and he is very capable of turning in consistently strong performances. Look for Johnson to finish with around five catches, 80 yards and multiple receiving touchdowns this Sunday.
If Johnson works out and Patterson takes the next step, Bridgewater will have two talented and speedy receivers to chuck deep balls at.
It sounds to me like Johnson should wear No. 80. It would go very nicely with Patterson's No. 84.
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