Patriots vs. Packers: Complete Week 13 Preview for New England
After reeling off seven consecutive wins, the New England Patriots would seemingly have nothing left to prove during the regular season. However, while there are not many postseason implications at stake, this Sunday's contest against the Green Bay Packers will provide a telling litmus test of where the Pats stand against arguably the NFC's top Super Bowl contender.
While the national media has billed the game as Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers, the more intriguing storylines surround the deep and versatile supporting casts. The Patriots possess the multifaceted attack necessary to give Green Bay issues, but the Packers have received big leaps from young players to plug many of the holes that had emerged over the past three seasons since their Super Bowl XLV victory.
In short, neither team has any glaring weaknesses, which sets up a tantalizing plethora of strength vs. strength matchups. For a deep dive into how the Pats can win at Lambeau Field, read on for a full analysis of the most important players, game factors and matchups.
Patriots Week 12 Recap
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The Patriots will try to replicate their feat from Week 12, when they knocked an NFC North team out of first place. New England's 34-9 pummeling of the Detroit Lions illustrated how deadly the Pats can be so long as they remain healthy, as there is no weakness the Patriots cannot press upon.
Offensively, Tom Brady and Co. blew past Detroit's previous season high of 24 points allowed in a game. The Patriots effectively recycled their game plan from Week 9 against the Denver Broncos, utilizing heavy spread-oriented personnel to work around the Lions' exemplary front seven. As a result, Brady attempted 53 passes, while the Pats ran the ball just 20 times.
This week, look for the Pats to dust off their game plan from two weekends ago against the Indianapolis Colts. Green Bay's run defense has improved since moving Clay Matthews to middle linebacker, and with two-gapping cloggers Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion along the line, the Packers are not as undersized as Indy. Nevertheless, the Packers still rank just 22nd against the run, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, meaning that the ground game remains a matchup the Patriots can win.
On defense, the Patriots shut down Detroit's excellent duo of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, holding the two to just eight catches on 21 combined targets. The Pats utilized Darrelle Revis on Tate and Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty in bracket coverage on Megatron, perhaps foreshadowing their intentions against Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb this Sunday.
News and Notes
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Best Secondary of Belichick Era?
Though this week is being billed as Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers, the best matchup is actually Rodgers against New England's versatile secondary. As ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss relayed after the Lions win, Darrelle Revis' Joker-like ability has made this one of Bill Belichick's best units.
"What stands out is how Revis gives coach Bill Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia such flexibility with their game plans. He's the queen piece on the Patriots' chessboard, a player who sometimes seems to be effortlessly running the route before the receiver himself because his anticipation is simply elite.
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In previous weeks, some have speculated that this year's secondary could be the best of the Belichick era. There's more to pass defense than just the defensive backs, but going by the passing stats, that assertion would be false. For instance, using Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric, the Pats finished second in pass defense in 2003, while they currently sit 12th this year.
But that ranking is partially skewed by the tough first month, and in reality, the Pats have been among the most impressive pass defenses over the past month in shutting down four straight Pro Bowl-caliber tandems. That number will extend to five this week, as the matchup between Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb against the Patriots secondary is arguably this game's most important.
Turnover Margin Stands Out
The Patriots and the Packers possess the league's top two point differentials this season, suggesting that they are the NFL's best teams, regardless of what the standings may show. Not coincidentally, the Pats and Packers also possess the league's top two turnover differentials, a stat Belichick sees as key in determining the game's outcome, per The Boston Globe's Michael Whitmer and Ben Volin:
"Turnovers are huge. Not only do they not turn the ball over and get turnovers, but they’re also the best in the league at converting turnovers into touchdowns. They’re a very opportunistic team. They play good complementary football. They can get the ball away from you, they can pretty much score from anywhere. They’re explosive.
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According to Pro-Football-Reference, teams that win the turnover battle are 106-34-1 this season, good for a sparkling .755 winning percentage. Combined, Green Bay and New England are 13-2 when they win the turnover battle. The Packers have won the turnover battle eight times, most in the league, while the Pats are tied for second with seven positive turnover differentials.
Neither defense figures to receive many free gifts from Brady or Rodgers, both of whom rank in the top five in interception percentage. There are myriad strength vs. strength matchups on Sunday, and the turnover battle is arguably the most underrated.
Slater Extended
"The contract extension signed by #Patriots WR Matthew Slater makes him the NFL's highest special teamer again.
— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) November 26, 2014"
While the Patriots' immediate focus is on Super Bowl contention, New England has plenty of housekeeping to look forward to this offseason. With Revis, McCourty, Stephen Gostkowski (and possibly Nate Solder, who has one year left on his rookie deal) all due for sizable extensions, this offseason may be more focused on internal retention than last spring.
New England kick-started that process this week by extending one of the league's elite special teamers in Matthew Slater to a two-year, $4 million deal. Slater does not earn much acclaim, having accrued a grand total of one career reception, but his value in the third phase and as a top locker room leader earned acclaim from Belichick.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Slater is tied for the league lead with 11 special teams tackles this season. The 29-year-old is likely on his way to a fourth consecutive Pro Bowl berth and remains one of the unheralded cornerstones of the Patriots roster.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Danny Aiken | LS | Questionable |
| Marcus Cannon | OT | Probable |
| Dan Connolly | OG/C | Questionable |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Questionable |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | Questionable |
| Shane Vereen | RB | Questionable |
| Chris White | LB | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Probable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss.
Although the Patriots escaped Week 12 without any major injuries, the report is longer this week due to a few new nicks and bruises. Brandon LaFell left the end of the Lions game after falling hard on his left shoulder, while Julian Edelman has been dealing with a thigh issue since landing awkwardly in Week 11. Both are facing difficult matchups against Green Bay corners Sam Shields and Tramon Williams, so if either is limited, the Packers defensive backs could very well control the perimeter.
Dan Connolly and Shane Vereen are also new additions to the report from last week. Vereen was listed with an ankle injury, but it's unclear when he may have suffered that injury against Detroit. Connolly left the Detroit game for a series with an ankle injury, but having returned during that game, the starting left guard's availability seems relatively assured.
In the best injury news of the week, Chandler Jones returned for his first real practice since suffering a hip injury in Week 7 (Wednesday's walkthrough excluded). The limited designation can imply a wide array of availability, and though Jones is likely still a few weeks away from returning, it is encouraging to see tangible signs of progress.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Darrelle Revis vs. Randall Cobb
As alluded to earlier, the Patriots face a difficult decision about where to plant their top corner. However, the Minnesota Vikings were able to contain Nelson last week due to strong press coverage from Josh Robinson, so perhaps the Pats could replicate that approach with Browner.
Moreover, Revis has been excellent in the slot this season, holding opposing slot receivers to one catch every 17.2 coverage snaps, the second-best mark in the league. Indeed, with Green Bay's plethora of West Coast concepts like slants, curls and play-action posts, Revis' quickness in and out of breaks makes him the best option to stymie Cobb on those routes.
More importantly, using Revis on Cobb would address the Packers' top red-zone target. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Cobb has caught 12 of 18 targets in the red zone, converting eight of those receptions into touchdowns. Only Julius Thomas has more red-zone touchdowns this season, and just four players have more red-zone receptions.
Those scoring situations will boil down to whether Revis' press can beat Cobb's quickness off the line. Green Bay's man-beating concepts (like this slant-flat combo) are deadly when the receivers are given free releases, so it is up to Revis to disrupt that timing and contain Rodgers' go-to option at the goal line.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Micah Hyde and Morgan Burnett
The Packers do not have a legitimate answer for Gronk, but in Hyde and Burnett, Green Bay at least has the size to challenge New England's tight end up the seams. Sub-package back Hyde has covered big tight ends like Martellus Bennett this season, while Burnett is a more in-the-box safety to complement the ranginess of rookie Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Nevertheless, Green Bay has been very average defending opposing tight ends, ranking 18th by FO's DVOA. This is clearly a matchup Gronkowski should win, especially if Tim Wright draws even nominal respect (which he should, after Detroit totally disregarded him and conceded two easy touchdowns).
The one concern for Gronk, ironically enough, may be in the red zone, where the Packers have given up just one touchdown all year to opposing tight ends, per PFR. In fact, Green Bay's red-zone pass defense has been generally excellent, as its 11 conceded red-zone passing touchdowns are tied for the eighth-fewest in the league.
Teams like the Lions and New York Jets have double- and triple-teamed Gronk in the scoring area, only to get burned by underneath options like Wright or Shane Vereen. No matter how the Packers choose to defend Gronkowski, he should represent New England's biggest advantage on Sunday.
Vince Wilfork vs. T.J. Lang and Josh Sitton
The Patriots run defense has improved considerably after a few rough weeks in the first half of the season. Vince Wilfork's vintage season has arguably been the primary factor in that turnaround, as the 33-year-old is playing 75.3 percent of the snaps, right in line with his heavy pre-injury workloads from 2011-12.
The All-Pro nose tackle will receive one of his stiffest tests of the season against the Packers interior line. Green Bay figures to double-team Wilfork with rookie center Corey Linsley and either Lang or Sitton, two of the league's best guards. Sitton and Lang rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in PFF's cumulative season grades among guards, an especially impressive feat when considering the injuries both are gutting through.
Wilfork must hold his ground at the 0- and 1-technique to prevent Eddie Lacy from gashing the interior gaps and to allow linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins a clean shot at the Green Bay running back. Lacy is averaging 4.6 yards per carry when running behind one of his guards, a reflection of the Packers' ability to create leverage in tight spaces.
The Packers will almost certainly run the ball on the majority of early downs to prevent 3rd-and-long, where the Pats secondary can press relentlessly and stymie long-developing passing patterns. If Wilfork can hold his ground in the area Lacy loves to attack, that will force Rodgers to attack the strongest part of New England's defense, a task other top quarterbacks have failed at in recent weeks.
X-Factor: Dont'a Hightower
Even if Wilfork and the secondary excel, it takes total complementary football to contain a generational talent like Rodgers. Thus, the pass rush must also deliver, and while Rob Ninkovich and Akeem Ayers have picked up the pace off the edge, Hightower has been New England's best pass-rusher the entire season.
Since moving to inside linebacker, Hightower's plus-6.1 pass-rushing grade ranks second among all players at the position. After a stint as a defensive end-type in the first month, the third-year linebacker has thrived in a more traditional off-line role, albeit one with significantly more responsibility and versatility than the one he occupied last season.
Well-timed blitzes from the A-gap have been New England's best source of pressure since Chandler Jones' hip injury. Indeed, since Jones has been out, Hightower ranks second among all inside linebackers with eight quarterback hurries (the leader, interestingly, is teammate Jamie Collins). Rodgers possesses the mobility and creativity to break down a defense on the run, but that certainly beats the option of rushing four and allowing the former MVP to eviscerate the defense from a comfortable pocket.
Prediction
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Both these teams have unleashed a blitzkrieg on opponents, as the Pats and Packers are far and away the two best first-half teams in the league. The key for both, then, is to establish a semblance of offensive balance so that quick drives and punts do not snowball into a barrage of points for the opposition.
The Patriots appear better equipped to fulfill that task than the Packers, especially with New England's ability to drop an extra safety into the box and still excel with single-high safety pass coverages. Even with a stout defensive line and the highly instinctive Clay Matthews, Green Bay still has plenty of front-seven weaknesses (particularly outside backers Julius Peppers, Mike Neal and Nick Perry) for the Pats to exploit on the ground.
Therefore, this looks like another game Tom Brady and Co. should dictate. Rodgers and the Packers offense should put up a stronger response than the Patriots' recent opponents, but even though the unit has made strides, it's hard to envision how Green Bay covers up its remaining defensive warts.
New England will almost certainly enter Sunday as an underdog for the third time in four weeks. However, if the Patriots pull off the same well-rounded game plan they did against Indy and Denver, the Pats may not bear the underdog label again this season.
Prediction: Patriots 36, Packers 29
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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