Post-Week 13 College Football Playoff Projections from Analytics Guru Ed Feng
After ESPN aired the release of the inaugural College Football Playoff poll on Oct. 28, there was just one question on everybody's mind: What will the rankings look like when they matter on Dec. 7?
My algorithm projects just that in the sortable table above. Now, allow me to explain my rankings...
Mississippi State Is Not Giving Up No. 4 Spot Without a Fight
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Way too many people think Mississippi State, which holds the precarious fourth spot in the committee rankings, is in trouble. If Alabama beats Auburn Saturday, the Bulldogs won't play in the SEC championship game, meaning they will miss the opportunity to "impress the committee" the last week of the season. A team like TCU or Ohio State could grab the final playoff spot.
Here's why the Bulldogs won't go down without a fight, however.
First, they travel to Mississippi for the Egg Bowl this weekend. If they win, they'll notch another notable win over a Top 25 squad. That will give them four wins over teams that were ranked in the Top 25 at the time of each contest, along with one five-point loss to the top-ranked team in the country. The committee should look favorably upon that resume.
Second, the committee has shown that it needs a pretty strong statement to move the Top Four teams around. Oregon jumped Florida State only after a 24-point road win over a ranked Utah team. Alabama jumped from fifth to first after beating top-ranked Mississippi State.
Which of the first three out could impress the committee with a big win over a top team in the next two weeks? Not fifth-ranked TCU. The Horned Frogs play unranked Texas this week and Iowa State the last week of the season. Unless the Bulldogs drop a game, TCU will struggle to leap over Mississippi State.
Sixth-ranked Ohio State has captured the Big Ten East and will play the winner of this weekend's game between Minnesota and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. This works out well for the Buckeyes, as the victor of that contest will almost surely be in the Top 15 of the committee's rankings.
The Buckeyes are favored to beat either Wisconsin (57.8 percent) or Minnesota (80.0 percent ). However, given the committee's apparent need to see a very dominant performance to warrant movement, Ohio State would need to do it with a great deal of style to jump into the Top Four.
Seventh-ranked Baylor may have the best chance to make the jump. The Bears play a strong Kansas State team at home the last week of the season, and their head-to-head win over TCU will look extremely impressive.
That said, given the committee's tendencies so far, a three-spot jump for a Top 10 team without losses above it looks very unlikely.
All of these factors, coupled with the chance that one of the Top Three teams could lose, contribute to Mississippi State's 51.5 percent chance to make the playoff.
How Much Do Current Rankings of TCU and Baylor Matter?
How does the committee distinguish between Big 12 rivals TCU and Baylor? Baylor beat TCU by a field goal in their head-to-head contest. However, TCU has a better out-of-conference win over Minnesota, a team the committee moved up to 18th this week.
How would their playoff chances change if we flipped their rankings?
As the fifth-ranked team, Baylor would have a 49.4 percent chance to make the playoff, almost double its 26.4 percent probability at seventh. If TCU slipped from fifth to seventh, its playoff odds would drop from 46.4 percent to 22.5 percent. These shifts are drastic for such small changes in ranking.
Baylor might still end up ahead of TCU with its matchup agains the Wildcats. An impressive win, along with the head-to-head advantage, could cause the committee to put the Bears ahead of TCU.
Things Setting Up Nicely for Ohio State
After a win over Indiana, Ohio State's odds to make the playoff only increased 1 percent. However, the Buckeyes' situation looks much better due to the rise of the Big Ten West.
This past weekend, Minnesota had a big win over Nebraska, which moved it to 18th in the committee rankings. The Gophers play 14th-ranked Wisconsin for the West division this weekend. The winner of that game will give Ohio State a borderline Top 10 opponent in the Big Ten championship game.
Hello, impressive win.
Ohio State would rather face Minnesota, a team it already beat. Ohio State's third-ranked offense in my yards-per-play-adjusted-for-schedule metric has a significant edge over Minnesota's 45th-ranked defense. The Buckeyes have an 80.0 percent win probability at a neutral site.
Wisconsin and running back Melvin Gordon have the top-ranked rush offense by my yards-per-carry-adjusted-for-schedule metric and thus pose more of a challenge to the Buckeyes and their 54th-ranked rush defense. Despite the Gordon factor, Ohio State still has a 57.8 percent win probability against Wisconsin.
Ed Feng founded The Power Rank and has also written for Grantland and Sports Illustrated. Follow him on Twitter @thepowerrank.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
