College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Week 14 NCAA Championship Predictions
For the second week in a row, the Alabama Crimson Tide are atop the College Football Playoff rankings following Tuesday's release. Coach Nick Saban's powerhouse from Tuscaloosa is in prime position to win its third national title in four years.
However, Alabama is no lock to remain there with an Iron Bowl rivalry clash against Auburn on deck for Saturday, which serves as the headliner of Week 14's action.
The Top Seven teams in the playoff standings didn't change from last week, but the top teams all face considerable tests against underdog adversaries that are fully capable of pulling an upset. On the other hand, the superior teams should pull through at this late stage of the season, so the top of the NCAA standings may look identical once more in the next edition.
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Below is a complete look at the current Top 25 rankings, along with predictions as to which teams will be in the Top Four following Week 14.
Predictions for Top Four
1. Alabama
Considering how Auburn dashed the Tide's national championship hopes in such heartbreaking fashion in last year's Iron Bowl, it's only fitting Alabama gets a shot at revenge in Bryant–Denny Stadium.
The Tide have yet another savvy, veteran quarterback in fifth-year senior Blake Sims, who adds the dimension to make plays with his legs that his predecessors have lacked. Sims keeps the opposing defenses honest enough to open running lanes for T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry.
AL.com's Andrew Gribble notes how Sims has been quite the playmaker this year:
Meanwhile, Saban has once again assembled an elite Alabama defense, one filled with NFL-caliber talent and ranking second in the country, conceding just 14.5 points per game.
ESPN's Chris Fowler offers some hope for the underdog visitors:
Auburn has the ninth-ranked rushing attack in the country, yet the Tide give up just 2.76 yards per carry, per NCAA.com. Something will have to give, and considering the fact that the Tigers have lost two of their past three matchups with ranked teams, Saturday's game should go in Alabama's favor.
There is just too much physicality on the Tide's side for them to drop a second straight game to Auburn, especially at home. They will confine Tigers QB Nick Marshall to the pocket (as was done with Mississippi State's Dak Prescott), likely with mush-rushing tactics to coerce Marshall into mistakes.
Sims' decision-making is second to no QB in the SEC, and that will allow Alabama to protect home field and get into the conference championship game with a big victory.
2. Oregon
It's not as if the Ducks can take Oregon State lightly when they travel to Reser Stadium in Saturday's "Civil War" clash.
The Beavers are scrapping for bowl eligibility and have upset Arizona State this year. They are a foe to be reckoned with, particularly with so much pride on the line.
But Oregon State won't be able to tame Ducks Heisman Trophy front-runner Marcus Mariota in all likelihood. Mariota has been shredding defenses all year and should feast on Oregon State's 91st-ranked scoring defense.
Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports highlighted just how impressive Mariota has been over the past two years:
The selection committee shouldn't dock Oregon any style points if it wins ugly in Corvallis. The Ducks haven't even come close to defeat since a disappointing loss to Arizona at home. They went on the road in the next game and knocked off UCLA in a victory that's looking better by the day.
As long as Mariota is at the offensive controls, Oregon ought to be a shoo-in for the Top Four. The Pac-12 Championship Game could even vault the Ducks into the No. 1 spot if Alabama falters ahead of them.
3. Florida State
The possibility of having the Seminoles third and Oregon second—or the other way around, doesn't matter—is tantalizing to say the least.
Seeing Mariota do battle with reigning Heisman winner and national champion counterpart Jameis Winston would be must-see TV. It would also help determine which young man will be chosen as the first QB in the 2015 NFL draft (assuming both leave school early).
Casting that aside for a second, what Florida State has done as a team this year is nothing short of remarkable. ESPN's Heather Dinich documented what coach Jimbo Fisher had to say about his team's standing among college football's best:
Being slotted below two one-loss teams will only further fuel the Seminoles' quest for a repeat, which they seem determined to accomplish despite a number of close calls along the way.
Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com captured the resilience FSU has shown:
Boston College threw the ball just 12 times in the Seminoles' 20-17 victory this last Saturday. Between the Florida Gators' run-heavy offense and Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, FSU will deal with the ACC title game, and there could be tougher sledding ahead.
In the face of massive expectations, distractions on and off the field and scoreboard deficits, the Seminoles keep coming back for more. So many contributors have stepped up along the way that it won't be a surprise when Florida State skates by and remains among the four playoff teams when the final standings are released.
4. Mississippi State
While the Top Three appear to be a bit more solidified, Mississippi State's hopes of staying in the Top Four hinge largely on what others do. Should Alabama fall to Auburn—the Tide wouldn't in this scenario—the Bulldogs would get a shot to play for the conference championship.
But with just a road trip to Ole Miss remaining, coach Dan Mullen's team doesn't control its own destiny. Mike Greenberg of ESPN explains in his analysis:
Big 12 contenders TCU and Baylor are nipping at the Bulldogs' heels, and the Bears have a great shot to leap over everyone in front of them by beating No. 12 Kansas State in their regular-season finale.
Then there's Ohio State, whose rise to sixth in the standings has been catalyzed by freshman QB J.T. Barrett. The Buckeyes have the benefit of a conference title game where they'd probably match up with a quality adversary in Wisconsin and make their own case to get in.
The lone loss to Alabama is nothing to be ashamed of, but it took away from the mystique surrounding dual-threat Bulldogs signal-caller Prescott and the meteorically rising Mississippi State program. It now needs help just to remain in the Top Four beyond next week's release.
While it will look good for the Bulldogs to knock off the Rebels in the Egg Bowl—and they will, by a comfortable margin—Prescott will need to orchestrate a truly dominant win to leave a lasting impression for the selection committee.
Otherwise, Mississippi State will be relegated to a high-profile bowl game. That would be a great step in the right direction for Mullen and Co. but not what fans were ultimately hoping for after such a promising start.
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