San Francisco 49ers: 6 Keys to Late-Season Playoff Push
The San Francisco 49ers must continue to win, or they will be watching the playoffs from the discomfort of their living rooms. With a record of 7-4, the 49ers are two full games behind Arizona in the NFC West.
A wild-card berth is also far from a certainty. In the NFC East, both Dallas and Philadelphia have 8-3 records. One of those teams will win the division, and the other will challenge for a wild-card spot.
The NFC North has a similar outlook. Green Bay leads with a record of 8-3, with Detroit only a game back at 7-4.
The defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks are also 7-4 and will be playing the 49ers on Thanksgiving night in San Francisco. The 49ers will also travel to Seattle on Dec. 14 in another critical game.
With anything less than an 11-5 record, the 49ers are unlikely to make it into the playoffs, so they must continue to win.
They are riding a three-game win streak, but they have been far from impressive.
While the defense has played well, the offense continues to sputter, and this has put enormous pressure on the defense.
In these past three victories, the margin for error has been razor thin. If the 49ers continue to live on the edge, that will come back to haunt them.
One turnover, one missed tackle, one missed field goal, one blown call by an official, one slip by a defensive back, one stupid penalty—anything of this nature could have led to a loss during the winning streak.
In order for the 49ers to make the playoffs and generate a serious run at the Super Bowl, six key things must improve. Let's take a look at these six critical areas.
No. 6: Improved Punt Returns
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Whether it's Bruce Ellington, Perrish Cox or someone else, the 49ers must generate more from their punt return team.
Poor starting field position has forced the offense to have to drive the length of the field on far too many occasions. With an offense that has been lackluster at best, this makes scoring a real challenge.
Ellington was mediocre with an average of seven yards per return and had not reeled off anything spectacular. His long for the year was only 21 yards. With Ellington out due to injury, Cox has been given the opportunity.
He has done even less than Ellington, with an average of less than three yards on his eight returns. On the whole, the punt return group is averaging only 5.4 yards per return.
In addition, penalties on the return unit have also set the 49ers back far too frequently.
Coordinator Brad Seely has done a good job with the other facets of the 49ers special teams, but the punt return team has a lot of room for improvement. If the unit can be more productive, it will give the 49ers better field position and a greater chance of scoring.
No. 5: Get Vernon Davis More Involved in the Passing Game
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Vernon Davis held out and missed OTAs, and then he was injured and missed a portion of training camp and some playing time earlier in the season.
Whether it's an issue of health, he is not getting open or if Colin Kaepernick is not looking his way, Davis' numbers have fallen drastically this season.
For a player who wanted to renegotiate his contract this summer, he has done nothing to warrant an extension. It appears as though the 49ers were wise in holding off on a large new deal for Davis, who will be 31 years of age in January.
He has been targeted 40 times but has only 21 receptions for 197 yards and two touchdowns. His longest catch of the year was for just 29 yards.
In order for the offense to improve, it must receive a bigger contribution from Davis. He also needs to step up and play better.
On two of his three catches this past week against Washington, Davis stopped a yard short of the first-down marker and turned around for the catch. He was tackled before getting the first down both times. He also dropped what would have been a big gain when he was wide open.
If Davis can become a bigger presence in the offense, that will be a huge benefit for the 49ers.
No. 4: More Creative Play Calls
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The San Francisco 49ers have struggled in terms of generating any offensive continuity and consistency. In four of their last five games, they have scored 17 points or less.
This lack of offensive punch puts a tremendous burden on the defense. At some point, the defense will stand up to the incessant challenges the offense places it under.
The 49ers rank dead last in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on only 40 percent of their opportunities.
Some of this is due to lousy execution, but a main issue is poor play-calling. Often, the 49ers will abandon their strength, which is running the ball with Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
They also run very few sprint-out plays in the red zone, which would enable Colin Kaepernick to get out of the pocket and use his legs to his advantage. The run-pass option is difficult to stop, especially with a quarterback as athletic as Kaepernick.
Formations also tend to give away the type of play the 49ers are going to run. If Bruce Miller is shifted into the backfield, it is almost always a run. When the 49ers line up in a shotgun formation without Miller in the game, it is almost always a pass.
Spreading the field with multiple wide receivers almost always means a pass play, even though it is actually easier to run the ball with the defense spread out. The 49ers' double-tight end formation is almost always a run.
Defensive coordinators watch the film far more closely than we could ever hope to, and if I can see these tendencies, you can be certain they often know exactly what's coming.
Defenses have also adjusted to what the 49ers had success with on a drive during a game, and a counter move by Roman does not happen often enough.
Less predictability in play-calling based on the specific formations is essential, as is more creativity in the red zone.
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No. 3: Colin Kaepernick Must Get Better
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Perhaps Colin Kaepernick's biggest strength, his athleticism, is also responsible for his greatest weaknesses.
He has a powerful arm and can zip the ball into tight windows, but he has trouble throwing the touch pass. His accuracy is also an issue as he sometimes just throws the ball high and wide or low and behind the intended receiver.
Only on rare occasions does he hit his receivers in the exact right position, where they do not need to break stride when making the catch.
Kaepernick still has problems reading the defensive coverage fast enough and finding his second or third option quickly. This problem is accentuated when he runs play-action pass plays and takes his eyes off the defense with the fake.
His inability to make those correct decisions quickly is also a reason the 49ers lead the NFC in sacks allowed, with 34. The pass protection of the offensive line has been an issue all season, but Kaepernick holding the ball too long also causes some of those sacks.
For the season, he has completed 214 of his 347 pass attempts for 2,615 yards. He has 15 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Kaepernick's Total Quarterback Rating, or QBR, is the lowest of his career. This ESPN statistic rates the overall performance of a quarterback. Kaepernick is ranked by ESPN as the 16th quarterback out of 32 starters in the league.
In order for the 49ers to take the next step toward a Super Bowl, Kaepernick must be an integral force, leading the offense and making them more productive. In the 2014 season thus far, he has not developed as the 49ers had hoped.
No. 2: The Offensive Line
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A source of strength in prior years, the 49ers offensive line has been a major disappointment this season. Only left tackle Joe Staley has been solid over the course of the season, for the most part.
The list of issues has been nearly endless, and that has resulted in a lack of continuity. The breakdown of the line actually started at the end of last season, when Mike Iupati suffered a broken leg in the NFC title game.
Iupati has returned and has been OK but not the dominant player he was earlier in his career.
Jonathan Goodwin started every game the 49ers played over his three years in San Francisco. However, he left in free agency and was replaced by Daniel Kilgore.
Kilgore played well to start the year but was lost to a leg injury in Week 7. He has been replaced by Marcus Martin. The rookie does not have the strength or physicality of Kilgore and has been overpowered at times.
The right side of the offensive line has been even worse. Right guard Alex Boone missed all of training camp, as he held out until the 49ers renegotiated his contract. He has not been the player the 49ers expected upon his return.
Boone has been beaten frequently in pass protection and has whiffed far too many times when the defensive line has stunted.
Right tackle has been the most problematical spot on the line. Anthony Davis has been in and out of the lineup with various injuries, including the latest, a concussion which will likely keep him out against the Seahawks on Thursday night.
Because Davis missed training camp due to injuries, he has often looked slow and out of condition, as pass-rushers burst past him.
Jonathan Martin has filled in for Davis but has been less than stellar. He has been overpowered or beaten by speed rushers on far too many occasions.
With all the problems the line has faced, the unit's performance has suffered, especially in pass protection. The lack of continuity and consistency has derailed the 49ers offense.
If the 49ers hope to make any noise down the stretch, it will be up to the offensive line to play a lot better. Better at run blocking than pass blocking, the line must open more holes for Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde.
The most critical area of improvement must come in pass protection, as the line must do a better job of protecting Kaepernick and giving him time to throw.
No. 1: The Defense Must Continue to Play at an Incredibly High Level
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The 49ers defense has been outstanding over the course of the year. It is second in the league for the fewest yards allowed per game. It is also 10th in points per game, allowing 20.5 on average.
These accomplishments are amazing are two reasons. First, the defense has suffered a plethora of injuries. Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams, Jimmie Ward, Dan Skuta and Tramaine Brock all have missed significant time this year.
In addition to the injuries, the suspension of Aldon Smith for nine games was another hurdle to jump.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and the other position coaches on the defense have done an outstanding job. The 49ers defense has enabled the team to get to 7-4, even while the offense has struggled.
The job the defense has done is even more incredible considering how often the offense cannot give the team better field position to work with. The defense has had virtually no margin for error in the past few weeks and has been equal to the challenge.
With the ineptitude of the 49ers offense, it will be up to the defense to determine just how far the 49ers can go this season.
Player stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com. Team stats courtesy of NFL.com.
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