College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Selection Committee Top 25 for Week 14
After weeks of strife and hand-wringing about the direction of the College Football Playoff poll, Week 14 entered as one of expected inertia. With three of the nation's four top-ranked teams thumping cupcakes in expert fashion and Florida State unveiling its latest Houdini act—thus changing nothing about the preceding Saturdays—we for once felt as if we had a grip on the outlook.
The only remaining questions were the teams after the Top Four. TCU's absence from the slate was rendered moot by two less-than-impressive performances from Ohio State and Baylor, leaving the Horned Frogs looking stronger than ever in their next-man-up standing.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As for the Buckeyes and Bears, here is how theirs and the rest of the country's outlook turned out following Tuesday's announcement show:
(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)
That the playoff teams remain in place should come as a surprise to exactly no one. Alabama, Oregon and Mississippi State defeated Western Carolina, Colorado and Vanderbilt, respectively, by a combined average of 39.7 points.
The Crimson Tide survived a shaky first 20 minutes to score the game's final 31 points against FCS outfit Western Carolina. Most of Alabama's starters sat a majority of the second half to stay fresh for Saturday's Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn.
While the Tigers' three losses keep them well outside the playoff picture, Alabama enters in an eerily similar situation to the one it inhabited a year ago: sitting at the top of the rankings with only its bitter rival and a potential SEC Championship Game clash holding it back for playing for a national title. Head coach Nick Saban, usually the first to downplay everything, said the Tide's heartbreaking loss in last year's Iron Bowl still weighs on his mind.
“We all kinda remember what happened,” Saban told reporters Monday. “I think that it was very, very disappointing to all of us here. Not just the last play, but the last five minutes of the game that we never really ever finished the game like we needed to. It was a tough way to lose a game and I’m sure that everybody sort of has that in mind.”
Also headed toward a rivalry game but in much less control of its destiny is Mississippi State. The Bulldogs, who still have a chance of winning the SEC West if Alabama goes down, travel to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday for a game against 18th-ranked Ole Miss.
"You work year round for this type of game. It'll be fun," Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen told reporters Monday. "I know we'll be going into a hostile environment. Tough place to go play. I don't think they are big fans of mine up in that part of the state."
Of course, the trip looked a whole lot more daunting a week ago. The Rebels' 30-0 loss to unranked Arkansas gave them three defeats in their last four games. In the event Mississippi State defeats Ole Miss and Alabama takes down Auburn, the Bulldogs' best victories will be against teams with four losses.
That could be a big deal when the committee sits down for its final deliberations. Conference championships are one of the four major pillars the committee touted when the playoff was announced, which puts TCU and Mississippi State in precarious positions.
Despite their up-and-down play in Week 13, Baylor and Ohio State control their own destinies in their respective conferences. The Bears defeated TCU in a head-to-head thriller and have a resume-solidifying game against Kansas State to close their season in two weeks.
The Buckeyes should thrash depleted rival Michigan on Saturday, but their likely Big Ten Championship Game matchup with Wisconsin looks better by the week. Melvin Gordon has rushed his way toward the top of the Heisman race, and the Badgers have reeled off six straight wins since their shaky start.
Add a schedule-strengthening statement win over a ranked opponent and a conference championship to the mix, and suddenly Baylor and Ohio State look a lot stronger in the playoff race.
All of this speculation has led some to wonder whether we're barreling straight ahead toward a late-season controversy—the type of thing this playoff was explicitly created to eliminate. ACC Commissioner John Swofford has already been on record suggesting the NCAA should expand the four-team playoff to eight.
“I don’t think all the controversy’s going to go away,” Swofford said last Wednesday, per Shawn Krest of The Herald-Sun. “You have four teams that get a chance to play for the national championship, which is twice as many as before, but whoever’s fifth or sixth is not going to be happy. There will be some conferences that won’t have a team in the playoff.”
You can see Swofford's point of view. It seems feasible that a one-loss SEC team—an SEC West team, no less—could be on the outside looking in. But it's also patently unfair to hold out conference champions who did everything they possibly could. It's easy to forget now that Ohio State's lone loss came nearly three months ago in J.T. Barrett's second career start.
Might an eight-team playoff, where the champions of the five power conferences get an automatic berth and there are three wild cards, create less controversy? Perhaps.
But for now, barring a barrage of upsets, it's looking like the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has its work cut out paring this seven-team jumble to four in the next few weeks.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
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