5 Bold Predictions for Washington Redskins' Week 13 Matchup
The top two picks in the 2012 NFL draft, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, have the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Redskins trending in opposite directions.
Under the direction of Luck, the Colts are on the verge of making the postseason for a third straight year. As for Griffin, he's 0-9 in the last nine games that he both started and finished.
And to think, at one point in time, some projected Griffin to be the better quarterback. Talk about a bold prediction, albeit a wrong one.
Staying on that note, though, here are five bold predictions for the Redskins' Week 13 contest.
Washington Will Cover the Spread
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As heartbreaking as it was to see the Redskins blow another game in Week 12, there was a silver lining. They covered the spread! Money over everything, right?
Listed as 9.5-point underdogs by Odds Shark entering last week's bout, Washington's spread this week against the Colts is 10.5 points. Sporting a 1-5 road record overall, the Skins' trip to Indianapolis actually bodes well for their chances of covering this spread.
Not only is the team 3-3 against the spread (ATS) on the road in 2014, but Washington is 5-1 ATS in its past six matchups with the Colts. With that said, roll with the double-digit underdog.
Prediction: Colts 27, Redskins 19
A Non-Receiver Will Lead Washington in Receiving
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Not that they've been top fantasy options all season, but this certainly isn't the week to ride with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon if you're a fantasy owner.
Indy's pass defense may be mediocre overall—it's 20th in the NFL—but the team has had success shutting down opposing team's top wideouts.
According to Football Outsiders, the Colts' only surrender is 59.9 yards per game to the opponent's No. 1 receiver, fifth in the league. With Vontae Davis' standing as one of the league's top corners, this number isn't surprising.
Where Indy's secondary has proved vulnerable, though, is against offenses' secondary targets.
No. 2 wideouts are averaging 62.7 yards per game against this defense. But let's be real, as Richard Sherman adequately stated earlier this season, Garcon has been irrelevant in 2014. He's eclipsed this average just once the past eight games.
This brings us to the impact Washington's backs and tight ends can have in the passing game. The Colts are 32nd and 27th in yards per game allowed to these two position groups. With the likes of Niles Paul, Roy Helu and Jordan Reed, if healthy, look for a non-receiver to expose this weakness and lead the Skins in receiving.
Robert Griffin III Won't Get Sacked
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With how skittish RG3 has looked in the pocket this season, can a prediction get any bolder?
After all, this is a quarterback who's been sacked 20 times—in four full games of action! While he doesn't yet qualify for the league lead because of a lack of passing attempts, Griffin's sack percentage of 14.4 percent easily eclipses Austin Davis' NFL-worst total of 9.4 percent, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Why the positive outlook then, you ask? Well, just peep at how inconsistent the Colts pass rush has been this season.
Indy may be ninth in the NFL in sacks, but there's been multiple outings in which its pressure on the quarterback has been nonexistent. As a case in point, take the team's Week 8 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Surely you remember the gaudy numbers Ben Roethlisberger posted that week (six touchdowns and 522 yards), but do you recall him ever getting hit?
Not only did Indy not sack Roethlisberger in 49 passing attempts, but it registered just one quarterback hit. Missing top pass-rusher Robert Mathis, the Colts have had to manufacture pressure via the blitz.
But with Griffin averaging over 12 yards a completion against the blitz this season, according to ESPN.com, it's not really in Indy's best interest to rush more than four.
In light of that, for the first time this season and probably the last, Griffin won't be sacked in Week 13.
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Alfred Morris' Hot Streak Will Come to an End
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Alfred Morris' 125-yard outburst against the San Francisco 49ers may have been his first 100-yard game of the season—or in a calendar year for that matter—but he's been on an absolute tear during the month of November.
Coinciding with Griffin's return to the starting lineup, Morris has eclipsed 90 yards rushing in each of the team's three games this month. Averaging 4.3 yards per rush on the year, his average has jumped to 5.2 yards a carry during this stretch.
Facing a Colts team that made Jonas Gray a household name just two weeks ago, there's little reason to expect Morris' hot streak to end, right?
Well, as ESPN College Gameday's Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast."
Tom Brady isn't quarterbacking the Redskins. While Gray deserves credit for his 201-yard outing in Week 11, his success had much to do with the Colts being fearful of Brady—after what Roethlisberger did to their secondary, can you blame them?
Prior to Gray's outburst, Arian Foster stood as the lone back to top 100 yards against this defense. With the struggles Griffin has had in 2014, logic dictates that the Colts take away his running game and make him beat them.
Redskins Defense Will Have at Least 5 Sacks
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After seeing what the Jacksonville Jaguars did to Indy's offensive line, Ryan Kerrigan and Company have to be chomping at the bit to go after Luck.
In the first half alone, Luck was sacked five times, three of which came from Chris Clemons. A unit that's given up just 20 sacks on the season, the offensive line's struggles can be attributed to injuries. Starting right tackle Gosder Cherilus missed the game, and guard Hugh Thornton left early with an injury.
Going against a Washington secondary that's banged up and prone to giving up big plays downfield, you can bank on Luck airing it out in this matchup. But with longer drops comes additional time for the Skins' pass rush to get after the quarterback.
Knowing that his secondary is at risk regardless of how many players he drops in coverage, look for defensive coordinator Jim Haslett to implement a blitz-heavy scheme that results in at least five sacks for his defense.
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