Fantasy Football Week 13: Insider Notebook and Preview

Who is the most overrated player in fantasy? It isn't the disappointing early-round star or the injury-hit veteran. He was likely available at a bargain rate leading up to your trading deadline.

It is last week's surprising star and most-added player: Jonas Gray.

The waiver wire tends to be fraught with frauds, empty promises and broken dreams. We have featured this phenomenon multiple times over the course of this season. It was no more clear than it was this past weekend.

Gray was supposed to be the stretch-run power back for the New England Patriots like LeGarrette Blount was down the stretch a year ago. It turns out it was Blount all over again.

Maybe it was Blount burning Gray's cell phone battery to keep the undrafted rookie from showing up to practice last Friday, as Anthony Gulizia of The Boston Globe chronicled. It handed a huge opportunity to the Pittsburgh Steelers castoff.

Gray became the latest in the history of the Sports Illustrated cover jinx, rushing for 201 yards and the first four touchdowns of his career against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night of Week 11, then sleeping through his cell phone alarm Friday and getting sent home from practice after showing up late, per Gulizia.

Gray didn't play a down in a 34-9 blowout of the Detroit Lions on Sunday and learned the Patriots Way and Bill Belichick the hard way, he told the Globe:

"

You never really know what your role is going to be, regardless of what happens. You know, you never know how many carries you're going to get or if you're going to be part of the game plan, so I just prepare and if your number is called, you just have to go out and do what you're going to do.

"

Showing up to practice on time Friday amid a week the Pats re-added Blount to the fold would have helped, of course.

Blount rushed 40 times for 265 yards and four touchdowns in Week 16 and 17 last season. After rushing for 78 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, he looks like a must-have and must-start option in all leagues going forward...no matter how the Pats scheme against an opponent.

The Pats are still a power-running team. Blount brings the power.

He is owned in just 20.3 percent of ESPN.com leagues and 48 percent at CBSSports.com. He will easily be the most-added player in all formats this week. He will not, however, be the most overrated player in fantasy like Gray was.

The 30th-ranked Green Bay Packers run defense is next up on the schedule for Belichick's Patriots. You want an insider's game-plan prediction: Play keep away from Aaron Rodgers and the potent Packers offense with Blount pounding the rock and Tom Brady using the play-action pass to Rob Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, et al.

Keep away from Rodgers—yeah, sounds like a predictable strategy. And keep away from Gray. He just got Stevan Ridley'd.

Best "Daily" of the Year

There are a number of reasons Thanksgiving is the best day of the year in daily fantasy play, outside of each league's opening day, perhaps.

First, most of your regular fantasy lineup decisions are academic and "chalk" at this point. Also, your playoff fate is likely decided, as you either gear up for your playoff matchups or delete your fantasy team page off your browser bookmarks.

But, most important, you're likely indoors "spending time with family"—so, basically, close enough to a computer or on your smart phone to pop in lineups throughout the day. Face it, most of you are going to be sitting, watching one game at a time during that day, if not through the night.

NFL Sundays can be daunting for daily fantasy play due to the amount of games, but Thanksgiving has a more manageable set of options and circumstances.

So, if you are bored with your seasonal leagues, or eliminated from contention, give daily fantasy football a try. This is easily the best day of the year to do it.

Not to mention, a lot of inexperienced players come to do it Thursday, which sweetens the pots nicely for us fantasy addicts. We buried the lede. That is the real No. 1 reason we love daily fantasy on Thanksgiving. It is a fun pastime and pays you back in instant cash.

Some of the favorite daily websites:

1. FanDuel—It is the place where the most players play, which means there are a lot of novices. Easy money!
2. DraftKings—They have big payouts and are gaining on the leaders in the industry.
3. DraftDay—They have a very user-friendly site, so you can go nuts in a lot of different games fairly quickly.

For a comprehensive review on the phenomenon, see this daily fantasy sports review by Noah Davis at Vice.com. It explains it all in great detail.

Waiver Favorites

Every Monday of the season, FantasyPros.com surveys analysts for their top waiver options. We reprint the consensus rankings here to help you sort through the fill-ins, organize your priority lists and allocate your FAAB:

RK	Player	POS	TM	Consensus	Best	Worst
1	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	1.5	1	3
2	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	2.3	1	3
3	Dan Herron	RB	IND	3.3	2	4
4	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	3.3	2	5
5	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	6.3	4	9
6	James Jones	WR	OAK	6.8	5	8
7	John Brown	WR	ARI	7.3	6	9
8	Justin Hunter	WR	TEN	9	6	12
9	Davante Adams	WR	GB	9.3	7	12
10	Doug Martin	RB	TB	10.3	6	15
11	Stedman Bailey	WR	GB	11	9	12
12	Tim Wright	TE	NE	12.8	9	15
13	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	13	5	17
14	Kenny Britt	WR	STL	13.5	11	15
15	Greg Jennings	WR	MIN	14.3	13	16
16	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	15.3	11	17
17	Robert Turbin	RB	SEA	17.3	11	17

Note: Fantasy scoring data against specific positions comes from FFToday.com throughout.

Thursday Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Chicago Bears

Start: Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett

Sit: Robbie Gould, Bears D/ST

Like the Patriots on Sunday, the Bears should plan to attack the Detroit Lions defense via the pass, making Cutler and his primary options viable starts, despite facing the No. 2 team in fantasy against the pass. If you have great alternatives, though, the difficulty of the matchup might sway you to start them over the Bears in what may be a modest game for them offensively.

Detroit Lions

Start: Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Matt Prater, Lions D/ST

Sit: Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Theo Riddick, Jeremy Ross, Brandon Pettigrew, Joseph Fauria

The Lions offense has been scuffling, but the Bears are the perfect elixir. Expect a big game out of Megatron and consider Ebron a sleeper against the worst team in fantasy against tight ends. If those guys have big games, Stafford and Tate should have solid, starter-worthy ones, too. We don't like the Lions running backs, and it is not because of the Bears defense. There just hasn't been any consistency there with the league's 30th-ranked rushing offense.

Philadelphia Eagles

Start: Mark Sanchez, LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, Cody Parkey

Sit: Riley Cooper, Brent Celek, Eagles D/ST

This is going to be the daily fantasy stacking game of the day. Start any of your Eagles, even Ertz, who plays mostly on passing downs at this point. There will be a lot of obvious passing situations in this one as both of the NFC East contenders let it all hang out. The Cowboys are the second-worst team in fantasy against tight ends, so we project Ertz to reach the end zone here.

Dallas Cowboys

Start: Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Dan Bailey

Sit: Joseph Randle, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Lance Dunbar, Gavin Escobar, Cowboys D/ST

You should feel good about all of your primary Cowboy options, even if the short week might be a tough turnaround for the heavily used Murray. This will be a high-scoring game, but it is difficult to project where the token fantasy points will come from with Dallas' secondary options. The only real plays to avoid are the defenses in this one.

Seattle Seahawks

Start: Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Steven Hauschka, Seahawks D/ST

Sit: Robert Turbin, Christine Michael, Jermaine Kearse, Paul Richardson, Ricardo Lockette, Luke Willson, Cooper Helfet

At this point, you have to feel sorry for Wilson's lack of targets. This lines up to be a ground-and-pound defensive struggle that won't be fantasy-friendly on either side. We like Baldwin to have a mildly fantasy-worthy day in the passing game...if only because someone has to, right?

San Francisco 49ers

Start: Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, Phil Dawson, 49ers D/ST

Sit: Colin Kaepernick, Carlos Hyde, Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson

Kap will throw for one touchdown, because he has that streak going, but otherwise it should be a modest day for the 49ers offense. Boldin is too hot to sit, even if the Seahawks are No. 1 against fantasy quarterbacks and wide receivers. We will go out on a limb and say Davis sneaks up for 50 yards and a touchdown here because the Seahawks are in the bottom eight against tight ends and have given up the second most touchdowns to the position to date (10).

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.